Survey Shows Disapproval of Bolsonaro is Increasing and Affecting His Voter Base

RIO DE JANEIRO, BRAZIL – The Datafolha poll published on Monday, September 2nd, shows a decline in support for Bolsonaro in sectors of his constituency that supported him in his election campaign.

The index of highly educated voters ranking the president’s administration as poor or extremely poor has increased significantly. In April, this group totaled 35 percent. Then, in July, it oscillated slightly to 36 percent. In this survey, however, it reached the 43 percent mark, according to the ‘Painel’ column in the Folha de S.Paulo newspaper.

The Datafolha poll published shows a drop in the support given to Bolsonaro in sectors of the constituency that supported him in his election campaign.

The Painel column notes that among voters with higher education levels, the index of those who classify the president’s management as poor or extremely poor has increased significantly, to 43 percent. On the eve of the second round of the presidential election in 2018, according to Datafolha, 55 percent of voters with higher education declared their intention to vote for Bolsonaro.

The survey further shows that frustration towards the government has fluctuated negatively in the South, a stronghold of Bolsono’s supporters.

Those who said the president has been doing more than they expected have dropped from 14 percent to 12 percent compared to the previous poll. Those who say he has done less than expected have gone from 51 percent to 55 percent, the column reported.

A comment on survey results

The conclusion from the Datafolha research data: Bolsonaro’s re-election is increasingly less certain. According to some observers, Bolsonaro is already campaigning, fighting with potential rivals such as Luciano Huck and João Dória.

But what Datafolha has just shown is a significant deterioration of the presidential image after only eight months of government – even in its strongholds, such as the South.

In the overall country-wide poll, Bolsonaro’s disapproval rating jumped from 33 percent to 38 percent compared to the July survey. Similarly, his approval rate dropped from 33 percent in July to 29 percent now.

In the Northeast region, his poor and very poor assessment jumped from 41 percent to 52 percent from July to now. In the South, those who say the government is poor or very poor increased from 25 percent to 31 percent.

So far, there is no sign that the president wants to change his confrontational style. He has gotten into disputes with the Federal Police, the Federal Prosecutor’s Office, the Treasury and the media.

He was attacked worldwide because of the Amazon, even by Pope Francis – no small feat in the largest Catholic country in the world.

Eduardo Bolsonaro’s appointment as ambassador to Washington is being attacked even by Bolsonaro’s supporters – and it is not even known if it will be approved in the Senate.

Any more concrete results will depend on the improvement of living conditions: salary and employment, which rely on a number of measures yet to be approved in Congress.