Peso Holds Firm As Global Tech Selloff Hits Mexican Stocks

The Mexican peso is starting Friday on the front foot, trading around 18.37–18.39 per dollar after briefly dipping on Thursday.

The move comes even as the U.S. Dollar Index hovers just above 100, reflecting a broadly firm greenback as investors scale back expectations for rapid Federal Reserve rate cuts following stronger U.S. jobs data.

For Mexico, that backdrop would normally spell trouble. Instead, the peso’s high real yields and Banxico’s cautious easing path – the policy rate sits at 7.25 percent after a modest cut – are keeping the currency in a tight 18.30–18.45 corridor.

On the daily chart, USD/MXN is pinned to its flat 20- and 50-day moving averages, with narrow Bollinger Bands, a mid-40s RSI and a soft but stabilizing MACD: classic consolidation after earlier peso strength.

The four-hour chart tells the same story in miniature, with price oscillating around 18.39 and intraday traders repeatedly fading moves toward the edges of the range.

The real damage is in equities. Mexico’s S&P/BMV IPC fell about 0.7 percent on Thursday to roughly 61,700 points, mirroring a bruising Wall Street session in which the S&P 500 reversed from an early 2 percent surge to close about 1.6 percent lower and the tech-heavy Nasdaq lost more than 2 percent.

Worries that the artificial-intelligence boom has run ahead of fundamentals, plus delayed U.S. labor data that complicate the Fed outlook, triggered a broad risk-off move that hit emerging markets across the board.

Mexico’s Market Split Shows Defensive Bias

Under the surface of the IPC, there was a clear split. Among the top five winners, Grupo Financiero Banorte rose about 1.3 percent, Arca Continental 1.2 percent, Alfa just over 1 percent, Banco del Bajío 0.8 percent and Grupo Aeroportuario del Pacífico roughly 0.5 percent, highlighting continued support for well-capitalized financials and defensive consumer names.

The five biggest losers were Gentera, Regional, Grupo Carso, Grupo México and Televisa, with drops ranging from around 2.5 to nearly 4 percent as more cyclical lenders, industrial conglomerates and media names bore the brunt of the selloff.

The main Mexico equity proxy in New York, the iShares MSCI Mexico ETF, saw brisk trading volumes and a near-1 percent decline, but remains strongly positive year-to-date.

Detailed daily inflow and outflow numbers are not yet available, suggesting that for now the move looks more like global de-risking and profit-taking than a decisive vote against Mexico’s fundamentals.

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