OPEC Ups 2023 Oil Demand Forecast

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) revised its 2023 global oil demand growth forecast.

In October, the forecast was 2.4 million barrels per day (bpd). Now, in November, it’s 2.5 million bpd.

For 2024, OPEC keeps its demand growth projection at 2.2 million bpd. This information comes from their recent report, released on Monday, 13 November 2023.

The report is available in English and spans 2 MB.

OPEC explains that China’s revised demand in the third and fourth quarters spurred this increase.

This adjustment offsets weaker projections from non-OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development) countries.

Yet, a 100,000 bpd rise in demand is expected for OECD nations. The report also predicts a higher oil supply increase from non-OPEC countries.

The estimated growth is 1.8 million bpd. This rise is led by countries like the USA, Brazil, Kazakhstan, China, Norway, and Guyana.

For 2024, non-member countries’ supply growth is projected to be 1.4 million bpd, unchanged from the previous estimate.

OPEC’s global economic growth forecast for 2023 remains at 2.8%. For 2024, it predicts a 2.6% global economic increase.

Regarding Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth, OPEC keeps Brazil’s 2023 forecast at 2.5%. The 2024 growth estimate remains at 1.2%.

The USA’s GDP growth forecast is updated to 2.3% for 2023 and 0.9% for 2024. The Eurozone’s growth projections are lowered.

OPEC predicts 0.2% growth for 2023 and 0.5% for 2024. China and India’s growth forecasts are unchanged.

In 2023, these Asian countries are expected to grow by 5.2% and 6.2%, respectively. For 2024, the forecast is a 4.8% increase for China and 5.9% for India.

Russia’s economic growth prediction is revised upwards. It’s now set at 1.9% for 2023 and 1.2% for 2024.

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