Nigeria’s Tinubu Cites World Bank Report on 4.2% Growth
NIGERIA · ECONOMY
Key Facts
- —The country Nigeria is Africa’s most populous nation and a major oil exporter. It votes for president on Saturday 16 January 2027.
- —What happened On Sunday 11 October, President Bola Tinubu said a new World Bank report confirms his economic reforms are working, and pledged wider cash transfers.
- —The numbers The World Bank says Nigeria’s economy grew 4.2% in the first half of 2026, up from 3.9% a year earlier.
- —The money Federation revenues rose 69% in real terms from 2023 to 2025, and states were the biggest winners, the World Bank found.
- —The catch Inflation fell to 15.2% in December 2025 but remains elevated, and the share of state budgets spent on education has shrunk.
- —Prediction markets Polymarket bettors give Tinubu a 73.5% chance of winning the January 2027 election (12 October, 2:07 a.m. ET).
- —Still open The presidency gave no cost, target or date for expanding cash transfers to poor households.
Nigeria’s President Bola Tinubu said on Sunday that a new World Bank report confirms his economic reforms are working. His office in Abuja issued the statement late on 11 October, pledging to widen cash payments to poor households.
For US investors in Nigerian bonds or shares, the World Bank report backs the reform story three months before a presidential vote. Tinubu also told Nigeria’s states to spend their sharply higher revenues more prudently.
What Tinubu Said on Sunday
The statement came from Bayo Onanuga, the president’s special adviser on information and strategy. It welcomed the World Bank’s October 2026 Nigeria Development Update, titled “Beyond the Federal Purse: How Higher Revenues Reshaped State Priorities”, published by the presidency.
Tinubu, of the governing All Progressives Congress, has been president since May 2023. He said removing the petrol subsidy, unifying the foreign exchange market and tightening fiscal discipline had raised revenues and stabilised the economy.
“The dividends of reform are becoming visible,” Tinubu said. He added that more work remains before households feel it, starting with lower food prices and decent jobs for young people.
He promised to keep expanding targeted cash transfers, which he said have already reached more than 10 million households. He also pledged faster use of compressed natural gas (CNG) as a vehicle fuel, higher farm output, and better health care and schools.
Legit Hausa, the Hausa-language edition of Nigerian news site Legit.ng, carried the pledge late on Sunday for readers in northern Nigeria. It rendered his message as “ana fara ganin amfanin sauye-sauyen”: the benefits of the reforms are starting to show.
What the World Bank Report Found
The World Bank is the Washington-based development lender owned by its member governments, with the United States as its largest shareholder. It released the World Bank report in Abuja on Thursday 8 October, according to its press release.
Real GDP grew 4.2% in the first half of 2026, up from 3.9% a year earlier and 3.5% in the same period of 2024. Services led the growth, with a stronger contribution from agriculture, and the poverty rate stabilised for the first time since 2019.
Higher oil prices linked to the conflict in the Middle East lifted export earnings. The current account surplus rose to US$12 billion, or 7.1% of GDP, in the first half of 2026, from US$8.6 billion a year earlier.
Gross external reserves rose above US$54 billion in September, helped largely by foreign portfolio inflows. The bank expects growth to average 4.4% from 2026 to 2028, and inflation to ease to about 12% by 2028.
The same oil shock stalled the fall in prices. Inflation dropped from 27.6% in January 2025 to 15.2% in December 2025, but higher fuel costs and lean-season food prices have since slowed progress.
Where Nigeria’s States Spent the Money
The World Bank report’s special topic is Nigeria’s 36 states, which gained most from the reforms. Gross federation revenues, the money shared among federal, state and local governments, rose 69% in real terms between 2023 and 2025.
Aggregate state revenues rose about 93% in real terms over the same period, and spending about 92%. Capital spending climbed from 46% to 61% of state budgets, with transport infrastructure the biggest winner, alongside housing and agriculture.
Social spending grew more slowly: education’s share of state spending fell from 14.9% in 2021 to 12.1% in 2025. Health stayed near 7%, while social protection rose from 1.4% to 4.4%.
“Strengthening spending efficiency, accountability, and service delivery will be essential,” said Mathew Verghis, the World Bank’s country director for Nigeria. Tinubu made a similar call on Sunday, urging state governments to use their higher revenues more prudently and to prioritise health and education.
What It Means for US Readers
For US holders of Nigerian dollar bonds, the World Bank report adds an outside voice to the reform story. A bigger current account surplus and larger reserves make it easier for Nigeria to pay foreign creditors and for investors to take money out.
There is a catch for foreign money. The World Bank says portfolio inflows drove much of the reserve build-up, and such money can leave quickly if sentiment turns.
Oil gains have limits too, because forward oil sales and oil-backed loans absorb part of the windfall. Higher crude prices therefore do not flow fully to the budget, the World Bank notes.
Fuel costs remain the political pressure point. On Friday 9 October, the presidency said state-owned NNPC Retail would forgo its petrol profit margin to support households, a step covered here.
What Prediction Markets Say
Polymarket is an online exchange where people bet real money on events. On 12 October at 2:07 a.m. ET, its bettors gave Tinubu a 73.5% chance of winning Nigeria’s next presidential election.
That price rose 1.0 point in 24 hours, and the market has drawn about US$129,800 in bets in total. On Kalshi, a betting exchange regulated in the US by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, Tinubu stood at 72%.
The Independent National Electoral Commission, which runs Nigeria’s elections, lists the presidential vote for Saturday 16 January 2027 on its website. The commission rescheduled the vote to that date in February, The Guardian Nigeria reported.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
What Is Not Known
The presidency did not say how many more households would receive cash transfers, how much the expansion would cost, or when it would start. It also gave no timetable for the CNG and farm pledges.
Tinubu’s statement does not name which states spent their windfall well or badly. It is also not known whether food prices and inflation will fall far enough before January to change how voters judge the reforms.
The World Bank report does not mean the bank has approved new money for Nigeria. The bank says sustaining the reforms will be essential to faster progress against poverty.
More: Nigeria news in English, every day from The Rio Times.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the World Bank’s Nigeria Development Update?
It is a report the World Bank publishes on Nigeria’s economy. The October 2026 edition, released on 8 October, focuses on how Nigeria’s states spent their higher revenues.
How fast is Nigeria’s economy growing?
The World Bank report says real GDP grew 4.2% in the first half of 2026, up from 3.9% a year earlier. It expects growth to average 4.4% from 2026 to 2028.
What did President Tinubu promise?
He pledged to expand targeted cash transfers, which he said already reach more than 10 million households. He also promised faster use of compressed natural gas, higher farm output and better health care and schools.
Why does the World Bank report matter to US investors?
It backs the case that Nigeria’s reforms have stabilised the economy and rebuilt dollar reserves. It also shows that much of the reserve gain came from foreign portfolio money, which can leave quickly.
When is Nigeria’s next presidential election?
Nigeria’s Independent National Electoral Commission has set the presidential vote for Saturday 16 January 2027. Polymarket bettors gave Tinubu a 73.5% chance of winning on 12 October.
Sources: State House Nigeria, statement by Bayo Onanuga, 11 October 2026; World Bank, Nigeria economic report press release, 8 October 2026; Legit Hausa, 11 October 2026; State House Nigeria, NNPC Retail petrol margin statement, 9 October 2026; Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), upcoming elections, 12 October 2026; The Guardian Nigeria, 26 February 2026.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief
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