Nigeria Says Food Prices Fell Up to 50%, Data Differ

NIGERIA · FOOD PRICES

Official figures show food still costs a fifth more than a year ago, despite a minister’s claim of halved prices.

Nigeria’s agriculture minister, Abubakar Kyari, said on Monday, 5 October, that some staple food prices have dropped by up to 50%. He spoke in Maiduguri, a city in the country’s northeast, at a meeting of state commissioners for agriculture and related fields.

Official data on Nigeria food prices point the other way: food inflation stood at 19.57% in August. The gap matters to investors and to Nigerians in the US, because food costs shape inflation, interest rates and the 2027 vote.

What the Minister Said in Maiduguri

Kyari, a former senator from Borno State, has been minister of agriculture and food security since 2023. He spoke at the annual meeting of a forum that coordinates the African Union’s farm-development plan across Nigeria’s states.

His ministry’s statement quotes him citing “reductions of up to 50 per cent in the prices of some essential food commodities”. He listed it alongside wider delivery of farm inputs, investment in rural infrastructure and support for smallholder farmers.

The statement named no foods and no base period. Daily Trust, an Abuja-based newspaper, reported the fall as measured against pre-2023 levels.

According to Daily Trust, he asked critics to compare the price of a bag of rice or maize in 2023 with today. He did not give the prices himself.

Aminiya, a Hausa-language paper, reported the same challenge and quoted his call to stop politicising the cost of living.

The ministry also said early buying of fertiliser under a presidential scheme saved ₦61.58 billion (about US$46 million) this season. Conversions use exchange rates of 5 October 2026.

The claim is not new. The ministry reported the same 50% figure from Kyari at a stakeholder retreat in Abuja on Friday, 6 March.

What Official Data Show

The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), Nigeria’s official statistics agency, publishes a monthly consumer price index. Its latest report, released on Tuesday, 15 September, put headline inflation at 15.39% in August.

Food inflation was 19.57%, down from 20.31% in July, and core inflation, which excludes farm produce and energy, was 13.29%. Premium Times, an Abuja-based online newspaper, reported the same figures.

At that rate, a basket of food that cost the equivalent of US$100 a year ago now costs almost US$120. Food prices also rose 1.02% in August from July alone.

The September figures are not yet out. The NBS usually publishes each month’s data around the middle of the following month.

Why Slower Inflation Is Not Falling Prices

Inflation measures how fast prices rise. When food inflation eases from 20.31% to 19.57%, prices are still climbing, only a little more slowly.

For prices to halve across the board, the food index would have to turn sharply negative, which economists call deflation. No NBS figure shows that.

Some single foods have fallen steeply from their peaks. NBS price surveys analysed by Dubawa, a Nigerian fact-checking group, showed beans 48.65% cheaper in January 2026 than a year earlier.

But the same data showed a kilogram of rice at ₦1,841.83 (about US$1.38), against ₦1,021 (about US$0.77) in January 2024. Rice therefore cost about 80% more than two years earlier.

Beans, despite their fall, still cost about 29% more than in January 2024. Reviewing Kyari’s March claim, Dubawa concluded that prices had eased but that the government oversaw the initial surge.

Comparisons over time carry a further catch. In February 2025 the NBS rebased its price index from 2009 to 2024 and updated the basket of goods.

Headline inflation fell from 34.80% in December 2024 to 24.48% in January 2025, mainly because of the new method. So current rates cannot be set directly against figures from before 2025.

Food Prices and Tinubu’s Re-Election Bid

President Bola Tinubu of the All Progressives Congress, the governing party, took office in May 2023. Within weeks, he scrapped the petrol subsidy and the central bank let the naira float.

Those steps pushed living costs up fast. NBS figures cited by Dubawa show beans cost 151.75% more in January 2025 than a year earlier.

A claim that food prices have halved is therefore a political message as much as an economic one. Kyari’s own call to stop politicising food costs shows how sensitive the issue has become.

What It Means for US Readers

For investors in Nigerian dollar bonds and stocks, the official index matters more than a minister’s estimate. Inflation guides the Central Bank of Nigeria, the monetary authority, when it sets interest rates.

Those rates in turn shape the value of the naira and the returns foreign investors can earn. A steady fall in food inflation would give the central bank more room to cut rates.

For Nigerian families in the US who send money home, food prices decide how far each transfer goes. The episode is also a reminder that a percentage for selected items is not a price index.

What Prediction Markets Say

On Polymarket, a prediction market, bettors gave Tinubu a 71.5% chance of winning the 2027 presidential election. Peter Obi, a former state governor who came third in 2023, stood at 24%.

Prices were read at 1:42 p.m. ET on Tuesday, 6 October, with about US$128,800 bet on the market in total. The price reflects bettors’ views, not a measure of how food costs will move votes.

Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.

What Is Not Known

Kyari did not say which foods fell by up to 50%, or by how much each. His ministry’s statement gives no base period and no price data to test the claim.

It is unclear whether he meant pre-2023 prices, as Daily Trust reported, or prices at their 2024 and 2025 peaks. Recent NBS surveys of single-item prices lag months behind, so his figure cannot yet be tested food by food.

What Comes Next

The NBS is expected to publish September inflation figures in mid-October, in line with its usual schedule. A further slowdown would still mean food prices are rising, not falling.

The Maiduguri meeting was also set to plan how Nigeria applies the African Union‘s farm strategy for 2026 to 2035. Easing inflation does not mean prices will return to 2023 levels.

Frequently Asked Questions

Did food prices in Nigeria fall by 50%?

Official data do not show that. Food prices in August were 19.57% higher than a year earlier, though some items such as beans fell sharply from their peaks.

Who is Abubakar Kyari?

He is Nigeria’s minister of agriculture and food security, appointed by President Bola Tinubu in 2023. He is a former senator from Borno State in the northeast.

What is the difference between lower inflation and lower prices?

Lower inflation means prices are rising more slowly. Prices only fall when inflation turns negative, which is called deflation.

Why are Nigeria’s older inflation figures not comparable?

In February 2025 the statistics office rebased its price index from 2009 to 2024 and updated the basket. That change alone cut the headline rate sharply.

Why does this matter outside Nigeria?

Nigeria is Africa’s most populous country, and its inflation shapes interest rates, the naira and returns for foreign investors. Food costs are also central to the 2027 presidential election.

Sources: Federal Ministry of Agriculture and Food Security statement (via Federal Ministry of Information); National Bureau of Statistics; Federal Ministry of Information (6 March statement); Aminiya; Daily Trust; Nigerian Tribune; Vanguard; Premium Times (via allAfrica); ICIR; Dubawa (all accessed 6 October 2026).