Niger and ECOWAS: Military Capabilities and Shifting Alliances

On August 10, West African leaders contemplated potentially employing a standby force to reaffirm Niger’s constitutional framework.

This move follows failed interventions from both regional figures and the global community.

The ECOWAS conference in Abuja concluded with the decision to ready this force for potential deployment, though specifics remained scarce.

ECOWAS chief, Omar Touray, alluded to its readiness for swift deployment without delving into details.

After the deliberations, Ivory Coast’s President Ouattara announced his nation’s commitment to troops, with Nigeria and Benin also expressing their intent to participate.

However, Nigerian leadership stressed that force deployment is considered a last resort.

The looming possibility of ECOWAS stepping in militarily in Niger brings forth many questions, chiefly concerning the readiness of Niger’s forces, which are stretched thin due to engagements against extremist factions.

Against the backdrop of this uncertainty, many in Abuja, including senators, urge diplomatic solutions.

Nigeria, still grappling with an economic downturn, cannot bear the financial load of a potential conflict.

Past military engagements in Liberia and Sierra Leone, which drained about US$12 billion from Nigeria’s coffers, are a stark reminder of the financial implications.

Furthermore, given the ongoing battles against insurgencies domestically, Nigeria’s military resources are stretched.

Mali and Burkina Faso, previously suspended from ECOWAS for their own upheavals, warn that such a military move could be deemed a provocation.

Guinea has voiced its reservations, albeit stopping short of promising military backing to Nigerien leaders.

Within the Nigerien military’s ranks, loyalties remain uncertain.

Several military leaders openly aligned with the coup orchestrators the night following the coup’s onset.

Yet, the facade of unity seems fragile, as not all troops are necessarily in agreement with their leaders’ decisions.

Interestingly, the National Guard, once trusted by Bazoum, is under close observation.

Though not strictly military, their number of about 13,000 men, training, and armament make them formidable.

Early into the coup, they were realigned to safeguard key infrastructures in Niamey.

Loyalties within this unit, however, are conflicted, with some key personnel changes reflecting this tension.

Considering an ECOWAS intervention, the Nigerien military would need widespread support.

Niger’s troops, seasoned from battling jihadist threats, are spread thin.

Yet, they are combat-ready, separating them from forces in nations like the Gambia and Sierra Leone.

Under prior leadership, Niger’s military enjoyed significant enhancements, partnering with countries like the US, France, and Germany.

Ambitious personnel growth plans were set, with substantial budget allocations.

Turbulent alliances mark this situation.

Niger’s military leadership has reportedly sought the assistance of the Wagner paramilitary group through Mali.

Further, evidence suggests Niger has requested material support from Mali for defensive needs.

Niger specifically requested drone munitions and rockets to counter both internal and external challenges, aiming to safeguard its territorial sovereignty.

Should an armed conflict arise with ECOWAS troops, would Niamey be able to rely on backing from Bamako and Ouagadougou?

Both Mali and Burkina Faso’s military forces are actively combating extremist groups. However, these Sahelian nations have the advantage of international alliances.

Particularly since 2021, when the internal power shift led to Assimi Goïta taking the helm in Mali, Bamako has seen a notable enhancement in its military arsenal, largely attributed to aid from Moscow.

Primarily, Russia has bolstered Mali’s defenses by deploying hundreds from the Wagner paramilitary group.

Conversely, while Russia has shown interest in Burkina Faso, particularly towards the Russophile Ibrahim Traoré, such extensive support hasn’t been evident there.

Previously, Wagner chief Yevgueni Prigozhin had shown support for the military coup in Niger without specifying his potential role in it.

In another audio message, Prigozhin framed the situation in Niger as the nation’s fight against colonization.

In this evolving situation, two camps are crystallizing: those endorsing Niger’s new military regime and the elected leaders split between those favoring military intervention and those still holding hope for peaceful mediation.

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