Simon Closes Puerto Vallarta Airport Until 12 October
HURRICANE · MEXICO
Key Facts
- —The country Mexico is the southern neighbour of the United States. Its Pacific resorts, from Manzanillo to Puerto Vallarta and the Riviera Nayarit, draw many American and Canadian visitors.
- —Why it matters Hurricane Simon is a Category 4 storm with 155 mph winds. The US National Hurricane Center expects catastrophic wind and storm surge on part of the west-central coast.
- —Why now At midnight local time on Sunday 11 October, Air Force hurricane hunters placed Simon’s eye about 60 miles southwest of Manzanillo. It had not yet made landfall.
- —What happened Puerto Vallarta’s international airport suspended flights from Saturday evening until 8 a.m. on Monday 12 October, weather permitting. Nayarit closed all its beaches.
- —The numbers Pressure fell to 928 millibars. Rain of 10 to 20 inches is forecast, locally 30 inches, in Michoacán, Colima and Jalisco.
- —What it means for you Flights and long-distance buses to the coast are suspended. Travellers should contact their airline and follow local civil protection orders.
- —Still open Whether the eye moves fully onshore. Forecast models still disagree, and no official count of deaths or damage on the coast had been issued.
- —Prediction markets Polymarket gives Simon a 36% chance of peaking at Category 5 (11 October, 1:50 a.m. ET).
Hurricane Simon held 155 mph (250 km/h) winds off Mexico’s Pacific coast early on Sunday 11 October, after Puerto Vallarta’s airport shut down. At midnight local time the Category 4 storm was about 60 miles (100 km) southwest of Manzanillo, in Colima state, and had not yet made landfall.
For Americans, the storm threatens some of Mexico’s most visited beach resorts. Flights, long-distance buses and beaches along the coast from Colima to Nayarit are closed until the storm passes.
This follows our earlier report, Mexico Orders 24 Towns Indoors as Hurricane Simon Nears. Since then Simon has grown stronger and moved closer to land.
Where Simon Was Early on Sunday
The US National Hurricane Center (NHC), the federal forecasting office in Miami, issued an intermediate advisory at midnight local time (2 a.m. ET) on Sunday. Air Force Reserve hurricane hunters placed the eye about 145 miles (235 km) south-southeast of Cabo Corrientes, the headland south of Puerto Vallarta’s bay.
Maximum sustained winds held near 155 mph, up from 150 mph at midday on Saturday. Central pressure was 928 millibars, based on Air Force dropsonde data, down from 933 millibars at noon on Saturday. Lower pressure means a stronger storm.
The storm is moving north at about 5 mph (7 km/h). Hurricane-force winds reach 25 miles (35 km) from the centre, and tropical-storm-force winds 90 miles (150 km).
“The northern eyewall is only about 30 n mi off the coast, and conditions are expected to quickly deteriorate later tonight,” forecaster John Cangialosi wrote in the NHC discussion at 9 p.m. on Saturday. He described a small, distinct eye with symmetric, intense convection.
The hurricane warning still runs from Punta San Telmo, in Michoacán, to El Roblito, in Nayarit, and covers the offshore Islas Marías.
Landfall or a Brush With the Coast
The NHC forecast keeps Simon at about 155 mph as it nears the coast on Sunday morning. It then shows winds falling to about 115 mph by Sunday evening.
Forecasters said the models “remain inconsistent” on whether the centre will cross the coast or skirt it. Either way, they expect “significant or catastrophic wind, surge, and rainfall” in parts of west-central Mexico.
There is a stabiliser in the forecast. Rapid weakening is expected once the core interacts with the coastal mountains, and the NHC expects Simon to dissipate over land by Tuesday 13 October.
Rain is the longer threat. The NHC forecasts 10 to 20 inches, with isolated totals of 30 inches in Michoacán, Colima and Jalisco, bringing a risk of flash floods and mudslides.
El Financiero, the Mexico City business daily, reported that Simon could come ashore between Tomatlán and Cabo Corrientes in Jalisco. Its correspondent described Cihuatlán, near Barra de Navidad, as a near “ghost town” of closed shops and sandbags.
Airports, Buses and Beaches Shut
Grupo Aeroportuario del Pacífico (GAP) temporarily suspended flights at Puerto Vallarta until Monday 12 October, sdpnoticias reported. GAP is the listed operator of Puerto Vallarta, Guadalajara and other western airports, and its shares also trade in New York.
The suspension was agreed with Mexico’s civil aviation agency (AFAC) and air navigation service (SENEAM), on the advice of civil protection authorities. Reopening at 8 a.m. on Monday depends on a weather assessment.
Bus companies also stopped services. ETN Turistar suspended departures to Manzanillo, Puerto Vallarta, Nuevo Vallarta, Cihuatlán, Barra de Navidad, Colima and Tepic, El Financiero reported.
Mexico’s Navy (Semar) evacuated 76 people by sea from Quimixto and Yelapa, two villages on Puerto Vallarta’s bay reachable mainly by boat. They included foreign visitors and were taken to the navy base in Puerto Vallarta. More than 200 people were evacuated from El Rebalse.
In Nayarit, home to Nuevo Vallarta and the Riviera Nayarit, the state government closed all beaches under black flags. A statewide ban on alcohol sales began at midnight on Sunday, and 171 shelters were opened.
What It Means for You
If you are on the coast between Manzanillo and the Riviera Nayarit, stay indoors or in a designated shelter. Follow local civil protection orders and keep away from beaches, rivers and streams.
If you have a flight to Puerto Vallarta before Monday, contact your airline directly, as the airport advises. Check our Hurricane Simón: Checklist for Foreigners in Mexico for practical steps.
Property owners should check their cover. The Mexican insurers’ association (AMIS) said only 21% of homes in Jalisco, Michoacán, Colima and Guerrero are insured, below a national average of 26%.
The economic cost has started even away from the landfall zone. The Acapulco chamber of commerce (Canaco-Servytur) put losses to local businesses from rain on 8 to 10 October at MXN 33 million (about US$1.8 million), at Banxico’s FIX rate of 18.4163 pesos per dollar for 9 October.
Its president, Miguel Álvarez García, said hotels accounted for MXN 15.8 million (about US$860,000) of that estimate, mostly lost sales and clean-up costs.
What Is Not Known
As of the NHC’s midnight advisory, Simon had not made landfall, and the exact landfall point and time are not yet known. The NHC says its intensity forecast is of low confidence because of how much land the storm will cross.
We found no official report of deaths caused by Simon in Jalisco, Colima or Nayarit as of early Sunday. Damage assessments on the coast will only begin after winds ease.
It is also unclear when Puerto Vallarta’s airport will reopen. Manzanillo’s airport status was not confirmed in the sources we reviewed.
What Prediction Markets Say
On Polymarket, bets put a 36% chance on Simon peaking at Category 5, which needs winds of 157 mph or more. A Category 4 peak was priced at 60.5% (11 October, 1:50 a.m. ET).
The event has traded about US$15,700 in total, a modest volume. These are bets, not forecasts from meteorologists.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
Frequently Asked Questions
When will Hurricane Simon make landfall in Mexico?
The NHC expects Simon to be near or just inland over west-central Mexico on Sunday 11 October. It says the core may also skirt the coast without a formal landfall.
Is Puerto Vallarta airport open?
No. Flights at Puerto Vallarta’s international airport are suspended until 8 a.m. on Monday 12 October. Reopening depends on a weather assessment, so passengers should contact their airline.
Which areas are under a hurricane warning?
The NHC hurricane warning runs from Punta San Telmo in Michoacán to El Roblito in Nayarit, including the Islas Marías. A tropical storm watch covers the coast east to Lázaro Cárdenas.
Sources: NHC public advisory 15A; NHC forecast discussion 15; El Financiero (Jalisco); El Financiero (Nayarit); sdpnoticias; Meganoticias (AMIS); El Sur Acapulco; Banxico FIX.
Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief · Editorial standards · Report an error