Mexico Orders 24 Towns Indoors as Hurricane Simon Nears

HURRICANE · MEXICO

Hurricane Simon strengthened to winds of 150 mph (240 km/h) off Mexico’s Pacific coast on Saturday 10 October. Mexican authorities told people in 24 coastal and nearby municipalities to stay indoors from 4 p.m. local time.

The Category 4 storm could come ashore in Jalisco, between the municipalities of La Huerta and Tomatlán, on Sunday morning, Mexico’s national civil protection agency said. For Americans, the danger zone includes Puerto Vallarta and Manzanillo, and airlines are already cancelling flights.

Simon became a Category 4 storm overnight, as reported in Mexico Braces as Hurricane Simon Grows to Category 4. Since then it has grown stronger and wider, and the warning area has been extended north.

Where Hurricane Simon Is Now

At 12 p.m. local time (2 p.m. ET), the eye of Hurricane Simon was about 115 miles (185 km) south-southwest of Manzanillo, in Colima state. It was about 215 miles (345 km) south-southeast of Cabo Corrientes, the headland at the southern end of Puerto Vallarta’s bay.

Maximum sustained winds were near 150 mph (240 km/h), up from 140 mph at midnight. An Air Force Reserve aircraft measured a minimum pressure of 933 millibars, down from 945 millibars overnight. Lower pressure means a stronger storm.

The storm is drifting north at about 1 mph (2 km/h). Its wind field has grown. Tropical-storm-force winds now reach 125 miles (205 km) from the centre, against 70 to 80 miles earlier on Saturday.

The hurricane warning now runs from Punta San Telmo, in Michoacán, to El Roblito, in Nayarit, and covers the offshore Islas Marías. A tropical storm watch covers the coast east of Punta San Telmo to Lázaro Cárdenas.

In its 9 a.m. forecast discussion, the NHC showed a peak of 155 mph (250 km/h) on Saturday evening. That is just below the 157 mph threshold for Category 5, the top of the Saffir-Simpson scale.

Where and When Simon Could Make Landfall

Laura Velázquez Alzúa, who heads Mexico’s National Civil Protection Coordination (CNPC), said in a video message that a landfall was possible on Sunday morning. “A possible impact is expected during Sunday morning between the municipalities of La Huerta and Tomatlán in Jalisco,” she said, Latinus reported.

The NHC’s official track also takes Simon inland over Jalisco within 24 to 36 hours. Its forecasters stress that the track is still uncertain.

Some leading models, including the European ECMWF, keep the centre just offshore for the next 48 hours. Others, including the American GFS, move it inland within 36 hours.

The NHC expects the mountains near the coast to weaken Simon before and after landfall. On its forecast, winds fall to about 90 mph (145 km/h) inland by Sunday evening. The storm should break up over the high terrain by Tuesday.

If the centre stays offshore, Simon could stay much stronger than forecast, the NHC warned.

How Mexico Is Responding

The CNPC asked residents of 24 municipalities to suspend non-essential activity and stay at home from 4 p.m. on Saturday. People in flood or landslide zones, or in weak buildings, were told to move to temporary shelters before then.

The list, published by N+, covers ten municipalities in Jalisco, including Puerto Vallarta, Cabo Corrientes, Tomatlán, La Huerta and Cihuatlán. It also includes Manzanillo, Tecomán and three other towns in Colima.

In Michoacán it covers Aquila, Coahuayana and Lázaro Cárdenas. In Nayarit it covers six municipalities, including Bahía de Banderas, Tepic and San Blas.

“Do not wait for conditions to get worse to get to safety,” Velázquez said. President Claudia Sheinbaum said the army’s DN-III-E and the navy’s Plan Marina disaster plans had been activated.

Mexico’s National Water Commission (Conagua) forecasts more than 250 mm (10 inches) of rain on the coast of Michoacán and in Colima. It expects gusts of 120 to 130 km/h (75 to 80 mph) on the Jalisco and Colima coasts, rising into the night.

Simon has already caused harm to the south. A 76-year-old man died on Friday afternoon in Chilpancingo, the capital of Guerrero state, when an earth bank fell onto his home, Quadratín Guerrero reported.

The stabiliser is preparation. Shelters are open, the armed forces are deployed, and forecasters expect rapid weakening once Simon is over land.

What It Means for You

Airlines have started to cancel flights. Volaris said it had cancelled its flights on 10 and 11 October at five airports, including Puerto Vallarta, Tepic and Colima, DigitalMex reported.

Aeroméxico lets passengers on affected flights to Manzanillo, Colima and Puerto Vallarta from 9 to 11 October change dates without fees. They must travel by 14 October and keep the same route and cabin. The airline will not pay for hotels or meals.

Puerto Vallarta’s airport is run by Grupo Aeroportuario del Pacífico (GAP), whose shares also trade in New York. On Friday, GAP said all Volaris flights at Puerto Vallarta on Sunday would be cancelled, Quadratín Jalisco reported.

Anyone in the warning area should follow the orders of local civil protection officials and stay indoors after 4 p.m. Check your airline directly before going to the airport. Keep phones charged and water at hand.

A second storm adds risk for the US border region. Conagua has a tropical storm warning for Tropical Storm Rachel on Baja California’s west coast, up to the US border.

Practical steps are set out in this Hurricane Simón checklist for foreigners in Mexico.

What Is Not Known

The exact landfall point and time are still open, because some models keep Simon offshore. Its strength at the coast is also uncertain, since the NHC says inner-core changes are driving its intensity.

Officials have not given a national count of people evacuated or in shelters. Damage in Guerrero has not been fully tallied, and no date has been given for flights to resume.

What Prediction Markets Say

On Polymarket, bettors give Simon a 69% chance of peaking at Category 4 and a 32% chance of reaching Category 5. About US$12,400 has been traded on that market (10 October, 2:25 p.m. ET).

On Kalshi, which is regulated in the US by the CFTC, the Category 5 contract last traded at 28% (2:25 p.m. ET). It traded between about 60% and 70% for much of Saturday morning before falling in the afternoon. About 16,500 contracts have changed hands across Kalshi’s five Simon contracts.

These are bets on peak wind speed, not forecasts of damage or of where Simon will land.

Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.

Frequently Asked Questions

Where will Hurricane Simon make landfall?

Mexico’s civil protection agency said Simon could come ashore on Sunday morning, 11 October, between La Huerta and Tomatlán in Jalisco. The NHC says some models keep the centre just offshore.

How strong is Hurricane Simon now?

At noon local time on Saturday 10 October, Simon was a Category 4 hurricane with winds near 150 mph (240 km/h) and a pressure of 933 millibars.

Are flights to Puerto Vallarta cancelled?

Volaris has cancelled flights at Puerto Vallarta, Tepic and Colima on 10 and 11 October. Aeroméxico allows free date changes for Manzanillo, Colima and Puerto Vallarta. Check with your airline before travelling.

Sources: US National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Simon Intermediate Advisory 13A, 10 October 2026; NHC, Hurricane Simon Discussion 13; Conagua, press release, 10 October 2026; N+, CNPC update; Latinus; Quadratín Guerrero; SDP Noticias; DigitalMex; Quadratín Jalisco.

This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief