Merval Index Surges 2.18% as Country Risk Drops Below 600 and BCRA Hits 50-Session Buying Streak

The Big Three

Market Snapshot

Merval Index Today: Equities

The Merval index today delivered its strongest session since March 10, surging 2.18% to 2,663,049 in a broad-based rally led by energy stocks. Pampa Energía rose 4.7%, Transportadora Gas del Sur gained 4.2%, and Central Puerto added 4.2%, reflecting the continued bullish positioning in Vaca Muerta plays as Brent held above $100. Infobae reported the Merval also gained 2.5% in dollar terms to approximately 1,812.55 via the CCL rate. This is part of The Rio Times’ daily coverage of the Argentine stock market and Latin American financial markets.

Transener was the session’s sole notable decliner at −5.2%, pulling back after its 90% YTD gain—the best in the entire Merval. In a significant structural change, S&P Dow Jones Indices confirmed that Ecogás Inversiones will replace Telecom Argentina in the S&P Merval effective next Monday, March 23, expanding the index’s energy-sector exposure. The Merval now sits 19.21% below its January 28 all-time high of 3,296,502 but has gained 2.73% over the past week, per TradingView. For context on the recent correction, see our coverage of the 2.71% Merval crash as banks sold off on the oil shock.

Currency

The Argentine peso exchange rate today showed the classic split personality. The official dollar held unchanged at ARS 1,415 at Banco Nación, while the dollar mayorista remained anchored at ARS 1,396—well below the BCRA’s band ceiling near ARS 1,634. Financial dollars dipped: the MEP fell 0.20% to ARS 1,420.58 and the CCL retreated 0.29% to ARS 1,469.32. The blue dollar was the outlier, rising ARS 10 (+0.70%) to ARS 1,435, extending the informal spread to ARS 20 above the official rate.

The BCRA completed its 50th consecutive buying session, acquiring USD 73 million and bringing March accumulation to USD 702 million. However, gross reserves fell USD 66 million to USD 44,721 million—the lowest since January 30—due to multilateral payment obligations. Nicolás Merino of ABC Mercado de Cambios noted that the mayorista was “somewhat more demanded” than prior sessions, with attempts to push toward ARS 1,400 capped by export-sector supply. Dollar futures declined marginally (0.1–0.4%), with the March contract settling at ARS 1,408.50.

Technical Analysis

The Merval closed at 2,663,049 with a constructive bullish candle: the index opened at the session low of 2,606,351 and rallied 80,775 points to a high of 2,687,126 before a modest late pullback. The open-equals-low structure signals sustained buying pressure throughout the session, with no meaningful dip below the open.

The MACD histogram reads 10,096 with the MACD line at −74,180 and signal at −84,277. The histogram has turned positive for the first time in several sessions, signaling that bearish momentum is fading and a potential bullish crossover is developing. This is the earliest technical confirmation that the correction may be bottoming. The RSI at 43.13 on the 14-day and 37.36 on the signal shows recovery from the deeply oversold levels that characterized last week’s selloff.

Price remains above the 200-day SMA near 2,468,527, confirming the structural uptrend is intact despite the 19.21% drawdown from the January 28 ATH. The Ichimoku cloud on the daily chart shows the index trading well below the cloud, which acts as resistance in the 2,694,000–2,792,000 zone. Tuesday’s high of 2,687,126 came within touching distance of the cloud entry at 2,694,772—a break above that level would be the first meaningful recovery signal.

Key Levels

Global Context

Wall Street extended gains with the S&P 500 rising 1.01% to 6,699.38, providing a supportive backdrop for emerging-market equities. Brent crude rose 2.99% to $103.21 as the Strait of Hormuz crisis continued. For Argentina, the oil dynamic remains uniquely favorable on the export side: Vaca Muerta’s growing production means elevated crude directly benefits the current account, export duty revenues, and energy-sector equities. However, the financial side remains vulnerable to global risk aversion and the resulting pressure on country risk spreads.

Infobae’s Puente noted that crude prices have climbed sharply over the past 30 days following the U.S.-Israel intervention in Iran, the death of the Iranian Supreme Leader, and the Hormuz closure. The BCRA’s floating band ceiling at ARS 1,634 provides a 17% buffer above the current mayorista rate, maintaining a comfortable margin for continued reserve accumulation without exchange-rate pressure.

Looking Ahead

FOMC Decision → March 18–19: The Fed is expected to hold at 3.50–3.75%. The compressed Argentina-Fed rate differential (29% TNA vs 3.50–3.75%) continues to support the carry trade. A dovish dot plot could trigger a further sovereign bond rally and compress country risk toward 550 bps; a hawkish surprise would test the 600 level again.

Merval Rebalance → March 23: Ecogás Inversiones replaces Telecom Argentina in the S&P Merval, expanding energy-sector representation. The change reflects the structural shift in Argentina’s equity market toward hydrocarbon and utility names.

Agro Liquidation Season → April: The approaching harvest season should accelerate dollar supply in the official market, reinforcing the BCRA’s reserve-accumulation strategy and supporting the peso. This is traditionally the most favorable period for Argentine FX dynamics.

Country Risk Watch → Sub-500 Target: The government considers sub-500 bps essential for sovereign market re-access. Tuesday’s drop to 593 is constructive but still 93 bps above the target. The trajectory will depend on the Fed decision, oil prices, and the IMF negotiation timeline.

Verdict

Tuesday’s 2.18% surge was the Merval’s most convincing session in over a week, driven by energy-sector leadership and a constructive sovereign bond bid that pushed country risk back below 600. The MACD histogram turning positive for the first time in the correction is a significant early signal that the selling pressure may be exhausting itself.

However, the Merval remains 19.21% below its ATH and below the Ichimoku cloud, meaning the technical picture has not yet shifted from bearish to neutral. The session high of 2,687,126 came within 8,000 points of the cloud entry at 2,694,772—this is the level to watch. A confirmed daily close above the cloud would mark the first genuine recovery signal since the correction began in late January.

The BCRA’s 50-session buying streak and USD 702 million March accumulation provide the fundamental anchor. The approaching agro liquidation season adds structural support. But the Fed decision on Wednesday remains the dominant near-term catalyst for both country risk and peso dynamics.

Bias: Cautiously Bullish near-term — base-building. A daily close above 2,694,772 (cloud entry) confirms the recovery and targets 2,792,486. A break below 2,514,890 (Senkou Span B) reinstates the Bearish case and exposes the 200-day SMA at 2,468,527.

This report is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. The Rio Times is not responsible for any investment decisions made based on this content. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions. Data sourced from BYMA, TradingView, Investing.com, Infobae, Ámbito, BCRA, and other public sources.