Argentina’s Merval Index Falls 2.71% as Banks Crash on Oil Shock

Market Snapshot

Merval Index Today: Equities

The Merval index today delivered another bruising session as the global oil shock slammed Argentine equities. The S&P Merval opened at 2,770,634.71, briefly touched 2,781,009.80 in the opening minutes, then sold off throughout the day to close at 2,695,423.70—a loss of 75,211 points (−2.71%). La Nación reported the index opened down 0.9% and was pressured further as Iran’s supreme leader declared the Strait of Hormuz should remain shut. BAE Negocios noted the session saw only five stocks in the green within the leader panel.

This is part of The Rio Times’ daily coverage of the Argentine stock market and Latin American financial markets.

For context, see our prior session’s report: Argentina Merval Edges Up 0.25% to 2.63M as Oil Lifts Energy Stocks.

Also read: S&P Merval Dips 0.4% as Six Banks Urge Exit From Argentina.

The financial sector bore the brunt of the selloff. In Buenos Aires, BBVA fell 2.88%, Banco Supervielle lost 2.86%, and Grupo Financiero Galicia shed 2.81%. On Wall Street, Argentine ADRs suffered even steeper losses: MercadoLibre crashed 6.6%, Banco Macro dropped 5.2%, Globant fell 4.3%, Supervielle lost 3.3%, and Galicia declined 3.9%. Among the few bright spots, Edenor rose 1.8% and Cresud gained 1%, benefiting from defensive positioning and agricultural exposure respectively.

The Merval in dollar terms fell approximately 2% to around USD 1,864.91 via the CCL rate, extending the drawdown from the January 28 all-time high of 3,296,502 to 18.23% in peso terms. The index has now risen 3.73% over the past week per TradingView, suggesting some recovery from the worst of the correction, but remains down roughly 7.98% over the past month. Wise Capital CIO Ignacio Morales has characterized Argentina as having the worst-performing equity market globally in 2026—a stark reversal from the post-election euphoria.

Argentina Peso Exchange Rate Today

The Argentina peso exchange rate today showed remarkable resilience despite the equity selloff. The official dollar held steady at ARS 1,420 at Banco Nación, while the blue dollar traded flat at ARS 1,420—converging with the official rate in an unprecedented display of exchange rate stability. The dollar MEP edged up to ARS 1,421.40 and the contado con liquidación (CCL) rose 0.7% to ARS 1,466.23, per La Nación. The wholesale rate traded at ARS 1,400.98, up 0.39%.

Facimex Valores highlighted that the peso has been the second-best performing emerging-market currency since the Middle East conflict erupted, behind only the Colombian peso. The official rate sits 14% below the BCRA’s band ceiling of ARS 1,626.47, showing ample room before any intervention triggers. The brecha cambiaria between official and CCL remains compressed at roughly 3.2%—a level that would have been unthinkable a year ago.

The BCRA continued its remarkable reserve accumulation, having purchased over USD 3.2 billion in 2026 across more than 40 consecutive sessions. Gross reserves stand at approximately USD 45.4 billion, though net reserves remain deeply negative at around −USD 9.9 billion under the IMF methodology (per Eco Go). The Tesoro is actively placing dollar-denominated debt, with a fresh licitación of nearly ARS 9.6 trillion scheduled for Thursday to cover vencimientos after the intra-sector swap, according to Portfolio Personal Inversiones (PPI).

Technical Analysis & Chart

The Merval’s technical picture remains under pressure. The daily candle opened near 2,770,634, touched 2,781,009 (minimal upper wick), then fell to close at 2,695,423 near the session low of 2,693,016. The lack of a meaningful lower wick suggests selling pressure persisted into the close with no late-session recovery attempt.

Momentum indicators confirm the bearish backdrop. The MACD line at 12,085 sits above the signal at −79,388, with the histogram at −91,474—deeply negative. The RSI fast line at 43.46 and slow at 37.19 show the index approaching oversold territory, with the slow component nearing the 35 level that has historically preceded tactical bounces in the Merval, including during the October 2025 pre-election selloff.

The 200-day SMA at approximately 2,503,692 sits 7.1% below current levels, confirming the secular uptrend remains intact. Key resistance levels cluster at 2,733,449 and 2,737,207 (moving average zone), while the all-time high of 3,296,502 is now a distant 18.23% overhead. The correction from peak to current close is consistent with a major pullback within a structural bull market.

The Merval needs to reclaim the 2,737,000 zone to stabilize, and clear 2,834,253 (the upper Bollinger area) to signal the corrective phase is ending. Below 2,650,062, the next meaningful support sits at the 2,503,692 level (200-day SMA), which would represent a roughly 24% correction from the ATH.

Key Levels

Global Context

The global backdrop on March 12 was dominated by the Strait of Hormuz crisis. Brent crude surged 9.22% to $100.46 per barrel—its first close above $100 since August 2022—after Iran’s new supreme leader Mojtaba Khamenei declared the strait should remain closed. Three commercial vessels were struck in the Persian Gulf on Thursday. U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright acknowledged the Navy is not ready to escort tankers before month-end.

Wall Street posted its worst session of 2026: the Dow fell 739 points (−1.56%) to 46,677.85, the S&P 500 dropped 1.52% to 6,672.62, and the Nasdaq shed 1.78% to 22,311.98. The VIX surged 12.63% to 27.29. Gold edged down to $5,138 as the stronger dollar offset safe-haven demand.

For Argentina, the oil shock is uniquely double-edged. As a growing energy exporter via Vaca Muerta—with YPF leading the charge—elevated crude prices directly benefit the current account, export duty revenues, and energy-sector equities. However, as StoneX strategist Ramiro Blázquez has noted, “greater risk aversion hurts us on the financial side and the country risk.” Thursday’s session confirmed that dynamic: the financial sector bore the brunt while energy names showed relative resilience. The net effect depends on crisis duration—a quick resolution favors spread compression, while a prolonged disruption favors energy earnings but keeps country risk elevated.

Looking Ahead

Today (March 13): Argentina’s February CPI data is expected, with market estimates centering around 2.7%. The print is critical for the disinflation narrative—any upside surprise would complicate the rate-cut path. Separately, the Tesoro licitates nearly ARS 9.6 trillion in bonds to cover vencimientos. In the U.S., GDP second estimate, UMich inflation expectations, and JOLTS data are due.

Country risk threshold: The 561 bps level keeps Argentina above the informal 500 bps threshold for re-accessing international debt markets. The government has been unable to sustainably breach this level despite fiscal discipline and BCRA reserve accumulation. A Hormuz de-escalation could trigger a rapid compression toward 484 bps; prolonged conflict could push it back toward the 598 intraday high seen on March 3.

March 18: The Federal Reserve rate decision. Rates expected to hold at 3.50–3.75%. Any hawkish surprise on oil-driven inflation would strengthen the dollar, pressure EM currencies, and widen Argentine spreads further.

Structural factors: The Merval index today reflects the fundamental tension in Argentina’s macro framework: the same strong-peso policy that has compressed the brecha cambiaria to 3.2% and attracted carry-trade flows is simultaneously depressing dollar-denominated equity returns. The BCRA’s policy rate at 29% TNA (2.42% effective monthly) supports disinflation but keeps real rates elevated and credit scarce. ABECEB revised its 2026 GDP forecast from 3.9% to 3.4%, while BBVA Research projects 3.0%. The Milei administration’s ten structural reform packages announced March 2—including civil code, tax, electoral, and education reforms—remain the medium-term catalyst for re-rating, but execution risk is high.

Verdict

The Merval’s 2.71% decline reflects the continuing tension between Argentina’s energy windfall and its financial vulnerability to global risk aversion. Unlike Chile, which benefits unambiguously from lower oil, or Colombia, where crude is a mixed blessing, Argentina’s Vaca Muerta exposure means the Hormuz crisis creates clear sector winners (YPF, Pampa, TGS) even as the broader index suffers from EM capital flight.

The peso’s stability is the most remarkable feature of Thursday’s session. The blue-official convergence at ARS 1,420 and the BCRA’s relentless reserve accumulation signal genuine structural progress under the Milei framework. But this same peso strength is compressing equity valuations in dollar terms—the Merval has fallen 18.23% from its ATH in pesos, and the decline is even steeper when measured via the CCL.

Bias: Bearish near-term, cautiously constructive medium-term. The RSI slow component at 37.19 is approaching the oversold zone that has historically preceded tactical bounces, but the MACD remains deeply negative and the global risk backdrop offers no relief. Country risk at 561 bps is the key watch level—a sustained break above 600 would signal genuine stress, while compression below 500 would be the catalyst for a Merval re-rating. February CPI today and the Strait of Hormuz situation are the two immediate pivots.