BRAZIL · MARKETS
Runoff · Sunday, 25 October
Flávio Bolsonaro vs Lula: what happens next
First-round results, how the runoff works, the key dates and who backs whom, in one guide.
Key Facts
- —The country Brazil is Latin America’s largest economy, and several of its biggest companies trade in New York as depositary receipts.
- —What happened Flávio Bolsonaro led the 4 October first round with 47.03% to President Lula’s 45.16%, setting up the 25 October runoff.
- —The market move The Ibovespa closed at a record 209,066.90 points on Friday 9 October, and the central bank’s reference rate was 4.9892 reais per dollar.
- —Interest rates The Selic benchmark rate stands at 13.75%, and the central bank’s next rate decision is due on Wednesday 4 November.
- —What it means for you ADRs of companies such as Petrobras and Vale move with São Paulo share prices and the real, which magnifies swings.
- —Prediction markets Polymarket gives Flávio Bolsonaro an 86.4% chance of winning and Lula 12.5% (13 October, 8:44 a.m. ET). Polymarket puts Flávio Bolsonaro’s chance of winning at 86% and Kalshi at 85% (Lula: 13% and 14%), as of 13 October, 10:00 am ET; prices are bets, not polls.
- —Still open Analysts say it is unclear how either winner of Brazil’s runoff would shape fiscal policy, and who would run the Finance Ministry.
Brazil’s runoff on Sunday 25 October is the vote US investors are watching, and markets have already placed their bets. Brazil’s main stock index closed at a record on Friday 9 October after Senator Flávio Bolsonaro finished first in the first round.
He faces President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, who is seeking a fourth term. For Americans holding Brazilian shares or bonds, analysts say the result could decide whether October’s rally holds or partly unwinds.
How Markets Moved After the First Round
The Ibovespa closed at 192,114.55 points on Friday 2 October, two days before the first round, according to B3, Brazil’s stock exchange. On Monday 5 October it jumped 7.7% to 206,911.89 points.
The index then set a record close of 209,066.90 points on Friday 9 October. That left it about 8.8% higher than before the vote.
The real rallied as well. The PTAX rate, the central bank’s daily reference, fell from 5.2238 reais per dollar on 2 October to 4.9892 on 9 October.
That is a gain of about 4.7% for the real against the dollar. Measured in dollars, the Ibovespa rose roughly 14% in the first week of Brazil’s runoff campaign.
Interest-rate futures traded on B3 also fell sharply on 5 October, Estadão’s news agency Agência Estado and Movimento Econômico reported. Lower long-term rates mean investors are demanding less compensation for the risk in Brazil’s public finances.
Cristiano Oliveira, head of economic research at Banco Pine, told Agência Estado that investors probably now see a more liberal economic agenda as more likely. Brazilian markets were closed on Monday 12 October for a national holiday, so Friday’s figures are the latest official closes.
The picture before the first round is set out in What Brazil’s Election Means for US Investors. The central bank publishes each day’s PTAX rate around 1 p.m. Brasília time, which is noon ET.
What It Means for US Investors
Many US investors reach Brazil through American depositary receipts, or ADRs, certificates that trade in New York and stand for Brazilian shares. Well-known examples include Petrobras, the state-controlled oil company, the mining group Vale and the bank Itaú Unibanco.
An ADR price reflects two things at once, the share price in São Paulo and the value of the real against the dollar. When both rise, as they did in early October, dollar returns grow faster than the local index.
The same works in reverse. A fall in Brazilian shares combined with a weaker real would hit US holders twice.
Exchange-traded funds that track Brazil, such as the iShares MSCI Brazil fund, carry the same double exposure. Holders of Brazilian government bonds face the currency risk too, plus the risk that interest rates rise again.
Goldman Sachs economists Alberto Ramos and Panteleymon Semka said that runoff polls will now set the market’s direction, BPMoney reported on 7 October. The bank said the question that weighs most is who would run the Finance Ministry.
Live Market IntelligenceBrazil — Live Market Board
Rio Times · Live Market Intelligence
Brazil — Live Market Board
+1.38%
209,066.90
+1.38%
66,746.78
+1.06%
10,994.92
-0.44%
2,828,027
-0.16%
2,531.15
+0.00%
60,956.11
-0.51%
| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IBOV | 209,066.90 | +1.38% | +21.85% | 206,220.24 | 168,310 | 167,142 | — |
| USD/BRL | 5.16 | +0.01% | -5.13% | 5.16 | 5.18 | 5.14 | — |
| SELIC | 14.00% | — | — | — | — | — | |
| PETR4 | 41.64 | -0.05% | +35.19% | 41.66 | 41.97 | 41.15 | 41,499,400 |
| VALE3 | 72.97 | +0.83% | +30.75% | 72.37 | 73.54 | 72.66 | 17,658,000 |
| ITUB4 | 38.60 | -1.03% | +4.57% | 39.00 | 39.34 | 38.39 | 29,487,800 |
| BBDC4 | 16.85 | +0.36% | +3.50% | 16.79 | 16.90 | 16.67 | 19,416,900 |
| BBAS3 | 19.37 | +0.47% | +0.73% | 19.28 | 19.44 | 19.16 | 11,069,200 |
| B3SA3 | 14.26 | -0.21% | +12.73% | 14.29 | 14.47 | 14.11 | 33,037,800 |
| ABEV3 | 14.89 | -0.80% | +21.91% | 15.01 | 15.07 | 14.81 | 16,453,100 |
| WEGE3 | 47.59 | +0.49% | +29.99% | 47.36 | 48.08 | 47.36 | 3,364,600 |
| PRIO3 | 59.14 | -0.19% | +50.67% | 59.25 | 59.81 | 58.74 | 3,325,600 |
| SUZB3 | 41.33 | +2.35% | -23.55% | 40.38 | 41.48 | 40.35 | 3,914,900 |
| RENT3 | 34.68 | -0.09% | +0.84% | 34.71 | 34.96 | 34.35 | 7,979,100 |
| AZZA3 | 15.89 | -2.63% | -53.76% | 16.32 | 16.42 | 15.82 | 1,330,300 |
| CSNA3 | 4.30 | +0.47% | -42.65% | 4.28 | 4.41 | 4.26 | 10,076,100 |
| GGBR4 | 24.69 | +2.19% | +51.38% | 24.16 | 24.85 | 24.18 | 7,047,600 |
| ENEV3 | 24.21 | -1.38% | +70.49% | 24.55 | 24.64 | 23.99 | 9,297,000 |
If Flávio Bolsonaro Wins
Flávio Bolsonaro, 45, is the eldest son of former president Jair Bolsonaro and a senator for Rio de Janeiro. He represents the conservative Liberal Party (PL), led by Valdemar Costa Neto, which backs lower taxes and a smaller state.
Diogo Velho Barreto of Pequod Investimentos told Movimento Econômico that a Flávio win in Brazil’s runoff could lock in part of what prices already reflect. In that scenario he sees lower rate futures, stronger shares and a firmer real.
He also expects yields on Brazilian government bonds to fall in that case. Falling yields raise the market value of bonds that investors already hold.
Alexandre Espírito Santo of Way Investimentos told Agência Estado that a Flávio victory would help a lot with getting measures through Congress. Thierry Wizman, a global strategist at Macquarie, said a winning Bolsonaro would need a credible plan for public finances to sustain any rally.
For ADR holders, that would mean the early October gains could hold, in these analysts’ view. It is a view, not a certainty, and the rally suggests much of it may already be in prices.
If Lula Wins a Fourth Term
Lula, 80, co-founded the left-wing Workers’ Party (PT) and has been president since January 2023, after two earlier terms from 2003 to 2010. His party favours a larger role for the state and higher social spending.
Velho Barreto told Movimento Econômico that a Lula win could reverse part of the move seen on 5 October. In that case he expects higher rate futures, pressure on the real and a correction in shares.
Rising rates would in turn push down the prices of fixed-rate Brazilian government bonds. Their value moves opposite to yields, so holders would see losses on paper.
Espírito Santo said a re-elected Lula would face enormous difficulty in governing, Agência Estado reported. He also cited the new Congress elected on 4 October, where Flávio’s PL won the largest bloc in the lower house, with 121 deputies.
Prices and betting markets both lean towards Flávio, so a Lula win would be the bigger surprise for traders. Markets reopen after the vote on Monday 26 October.
What Prediction Markets Say
On Polymarket, a crypto-based betting exchange, Flávio Bolsonaro had an 86.4% chance of winning Brazil’s runoff at 8:44 a.m. ET on Tuesday 13 October. Lula stood at 12.5%.
Trading on the overall Brazil election market on Polymarket has passed US$180 million. The prices below update live.
Prediction markets · who wins the runoff
Implied chance of winning Brazil’s presidency on 25 October, from traders’ prices.
Polymarket
Flávio Bolsonaro 86.4% · Lula 12.5% (US$181 million traded)
Kalshi (regulated in the US by the CFTC)
Flávio Bolsonaro 85% · Lula 14%
As of 13 October, 10:00 am ET (15:00 Lisbon), updated every 20 minutes. Prices are bets, not polls, and can move fast.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
These are bets, not polls, and the prices can swing within minutes of new surveys. A fuller comparison is in Brazil Runoff Odds on Polymarket and Kalshi.
Key Dates in Brazil’s Runoff for US Investors
The runoff is on Sunday 25 October, the last Sunday of the month, as Brazil’s Constitution requires. Polls close at 17:00 Brasília time, which is 4 p.m. ET.
Brazil Runoff Results Start 17:00 Brasília Time explains when the count begins and where to follow it. The first official results come from the electoral court on the night of the vote.
The candidates and their programmes are covered in Brazil Runoff on October 25, Flávio Bolsonaro vs Lula. The first full market reaction comes on Monday 26 October, when B3 opens in São Paulo and ADRs trade in New York.
The central bank’s monetary policy committee, known as Copom, meets next on 3 and 4 November. It cut the Selic benchmark rate to 13.75% at its last meeting on 15 and 16 September.
The committee’s final meeting of the year follows on 8 and 9 December. Decisions come from 18:30 Brasília time on the second day, or 4:30 p.m. ET after US clocks change on 1 November.
What Is Not Known
Goldman Sachs said it remains unclear how fiscal policy will be designed over the next four years, BPMoney reported. Macquarie’s Wizman made a similar point about the need for a credible plan.
Neither scenario for Brazil’s runoff is a forecast of what will happen. They are the views of named analysts, and markets often move in ways no analyst expects.
It is also not known how much of a Flávio victory current prices already reflect. Velho Barreto’s comment that a win would consolidate expectations suggests part of it is priced in, but not how much.
Polls can still move before Brazil’s runoff, and turnout may differ from the first round. Global factors, from US interest rates to oil prices, will also weigh on Brazilian assets whatever the result.
More: Brazil news in English, every day from The Rio Times.
Frequently Asked Questions
When is Brazil’s presidential runoff?
Brazil’s runoff is on Sunday 25 October 2026, between Flávio Bolsonaro and President Lula. Results begin after polls close at 17:00 Brasília time, which is 4 p.m. ET.
How did Brazilian stocks react to the first round?
The Ibovespa rose 7.7% on Monday 5 October and closed at a record 209,066.90 points on Friday 9 October, according to B3. The real strengthened to 4.9892 reais per US dollar on the central bank’s PTAX rate.
What does Brazil’s runoff mean for US investors holding ADRs?
ADRs move with both Brazilian share prices and the real, so the outcome of Brazil’s runoff can affect US holders twice. Diogo Velho Barreto of Pequod Investimentos, quoted by Movimento Econômico, sees a Flávio win supporting recent gains and a Lula win reversing part of them.
When does Brazil’s central bank next decide on interest rates?
The central bank’s rate-setting committee, Copom, meets on 3 and 4 November, with the decision on Wednesday 4 November. The Selic benchmark rate currently stands at 13.75%.
Sources: Superior Electoral Court (TSE), 2026 first-round results, 5 October 2026; Superior Electoral Court (TSE), Manual do Eleitor 2026 (voting 8:00 to 17:00 Brasília time), 13 October 2026; B3, Ibovespa daily statistics, 13 October 2026; Banco Central do Brasil, PTAX rates, 13 October 2026; Banco Central do Brasil, Copom statement, 16 September 2026; Banco Central do Brasil, Comunicado 43.383 (Copom calendar 2026), 24 June 2025; Constitution of Brazil, Article 77, 13 October 2026; Movimento Econômico, 6 October 2026; Agência Estado (Estadão), via Diário do Grande ABC, 5 October 2026; BPMoney, 7 October 2026.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief