Politics: Peru
Key Facts
—Who. The Renovación Popular list, headed in practice by Rafael López Aliaga, and Francis Allison of Avanza País.
—What. Renovación Popular leads the Lima mayor count by 45,335 votes, or 0.868 percentage points, with 92.843% of tally sheets counted.
—Where. Lima Metropolitan, Peru. There is no runoff, and the most votes win.
—When. Election on Sunday 4 October 2026. The count figures date from Friday 9 October 2026.
—Prediction markets. Polymarket: López Aliaga 90.8%, Allison 3.4%. Kalshi: López Aliaga 87%, Allison 17%. Read at 4:30 pm US Eastern on Friday 9 October 2026.
—As of. 9 October 2026, 20:30 GMT
The Renovación Popular list headed by Rafael López Aliaga leads the race to run Lima by 45,335 votes, but the count is not finished. About 7% of tally sheets are still under review by electoral courts.
What We Know
Peru held regional and municipal elections on Sunday 4 October 2026. For Lima Metropolitan mayor there is no runoff, so the list with the most votes wins.
As of 9 October 2026, the electoral office ONPE had counted 92.843% of the 26,351 tally sheets, known as actas. The Renovación Popular list had 1,446,405 votes, or 27.706%, and Avanza País, led by Francis Allison, had 1,401,070 votes, or 26.838%.
The gap is 45,335 votes, which is 0.868 percentage points. On Tuesday 6 October 2026, with 92.710% counted, it was about 0.86 points.
López Aliaga is registered as first councillor (primer regidor) on the list, not as the mayoral candidate. Luis Rubio, the original candidate, withdrew on 4 August 2026, and Infobae reports that the first councillor would take the mayor’s post if the list wins.
Why the Count Is Slow
About 7.27% of tally sheets, roughly 1,900, are not yet counted. These sheets went to the Special Electoral Courts, known as JEE, for review.
Once the courts resolve a sheet, ONPE adds its votes to the total. That is why the share counted has moved only slightly since Tuesday.
ONPE’s interim head Bernardo Pachas expects final results in early November. The president of Peru’s electoral jury, Roberto Burneo, said recounts can run until 28 October and results should follow in the first days of November.
What Is Not Known
The votes inside the roughly 1,900 sheets under review could favour either list, and nobody outside the process can tell. With a lead of 0.868 points, they could matter.
It is also unclear when the courts will finish their work. Early November is an estimate, and the result is not yet official.
What It Means for Travelers and US Readers
Lima is Peru’s capital, and its mayor’s office runs city services. Visitors should expect normal city operations while the count finishes.
Peru supplies copper and gold to world markets. Lima is its business centre.
For background on the challenger, read Who Is Francis Allison, Lima’s Mayoral Challenger?. Our earlier count report is López Aliaga List Leads Lima Mayor Count by 0.86 Points.
What Prediction Markets Say
On 9 October 2026 at 4:30 pm US Eastern (20:30 GMT), Polymarket’s “Lima Mayoral Election Winner” market had López Aliaga at 90.8%, Allison at 3.4% and Carlos Bruce at 0.2%. About US$512,866 had been traded on it.
Kalshi, which is regulated in the US by the CFTC, listed “Lima Mayor winner?” with López Aliaga at 87%, Allison at 17%, Susel Paredes at 3% and Daniel Urresti at 2%. About 60,251 contracts had been traded.
Kalshi prices each candidate separately, so independent prices can add up to more than 100%. These numbers are bets by traders, not polls.
Markets price López Aliaga at about 90% while the gap is under one percentage point. That reflects trader expectations, not a count.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is leading the Lima mayor race?
The Renovación Popular list, headed in practice by Rafael López Aliaga, leads Francis Allison’s Avanza País list by 45,335 votes, or 0.868 percentage points. That is based on 92.843% of tally sheets counted as of Friday 9 October 2026.
Is there a runoff in Lima?
No, the list with the most votes wins the Lima Metropolitan mayoralty. The count must still be completed before the result is official.
Why is the count not finished?
About 7.27% of tally sheets went to the Special Electoral Courts for review. ONPE’s interim head Bernardo Pachas expects final results in early November.
Is López Aliaga the mayoral candidate?
He is registered as first councillor on the Renovación Popular list after Luis Rubio withdrew on 4 August 2026. Infobae reports that the first councillor would assume the mayor’s post if the list wins.
Sources
ONPE · Caretas · El Peruano · Infobae · RPP
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This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief
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