Iron Ore Prices Dip Amid Global Oversupply and Weak Chinese Demand
As of the morning of November 3, 2025, the Iron Ore 62% Fe, CFR China (TSI) Index hovers around 105-107 USD per tonne, reflecting a modest decline amid persistent market pressures.
This benchmark, crucial for tracking fines delivered to China—the world’s top consumer—signals ongoing challenges in the global steel sector.
Over the past seven days, prices fluctuated but trended downward, peaking at 105.45 USD per tonne on October 27 before slipping due to fading steel demand and swelling inventories in China.
The evening of November 2 saw further softening, driven by reports of reduced steel output. Worldwide, key markets like the Singapore Exchange (SGX), Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE), and CME Group echo this sentiment, with SGX futures at 105.10 USD per tonne and DCE closing at 800 yuan per tonne.
Fundamentals remain strained: global shipments surged 15% year-on-year, exacerbating oversupply from major exporters such as Australia and Brazil.
China’s property slump and overproduction in steel—exacerbated by state-driven policies that prioritize volume over efficiency—have eroded demand, with hot metal output dropping 1.5% week-on-week.
Analysts warn of a potential 10% price drop in 2025, as new African projects like Simandou intensify competition. Bloomberg notes, “The market’s fundamentals suggest prices could go lower as the industry grapples with oversupply, high inventories and declining margins.”
Technically, the 4-hour chart shows sideways consolidation between 104.50 and 106 USD per tonne, with fading momentum, while the daily view indicates a pullback from October highs, risking a test of 100 USD per tonne. Volumes on SGX remain moderate, and related ETFs show resilient inflows despite the dip.
For Brazil, a conservative-led powerhouse in iron ore via firms like Vale, this volatility underscores the resilience of free-market suppliers amid Beijing’s interventionist approaches, which continue to destabilize global balances.
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| IRON ORE | 161.91 | — | +58.10% | 161.91 | 161.91 | 1 | |
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| SUGAR | 16.43 | -1.79% | -3.01% | 16.73 | 17.11 | 16.22 | 171,992 |
| COCOA | 5,719 | +3.18% | -34.96% | 5,543 | 5,779 | 5,574 | 26,773 |
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