India to overtake China to become the world’s most populous country

India is expected to overtake China to become the world’s most populous country by the end of this month, according to a UN (United Nations) projection.

According to the organization, India should reach the mark of 1,425,775,850 inhabitants. China, in turn, reached a peak population of 1.426 billion in 2022 and then showed a decline.

At the beginning of the year, the Chinese government released data on the reduction of the national population last year – the 1st drop since 1961. The country closed the year with 1.411 billion people.

In 1971, the 2 countries had similar fertility rates, with almost 6 births per woman. By the decade’s end, China dropped to less than 3 children.

Last year, China had one of the lowest fertility levels in the world, at 1.2 births per woman. In India, the rate is 2.0 births per woman.

“During the second half of the 20th century, the 2 countries made concerted efforts to contain rapid population growth through policies that targeted fertility levels,” the UN says.

Regarding aging, the report points out that the growth of the population over 65 will be much slower in India than in China.

“In India, the number of working-age adults is projected to continue increasing both in number and as a proportion of the total population through mid-century, providing opportunities for faster economic growth in the coming decades.”

“Meanwhile, in China, the percentage of the population between the ages of 25 and 64 is projected to peak in the coming years, closing the window of opportunity created by the changing age distribution,” says the UN.