The first quarter of 2024 witnessed Latin America’s Economic Climate Indicator (ICE) rise by 3.7 points to 105.7, reported by FGV/Ibre.
This uptick marks the second straight quarter of a favorable economic climate, a sequence last observed in 2018.
The overall improvement saw positive shifts in eight out of ten key countries, notably Brazil, driving the regional ICE up.
The Current Situation Index (ISA) rose to 98.0, while the Expectations Index (IE) surged to 113.7 from 2023 to 2024.
Major contributions came from Brazil, Colombia, Peru, and Argentina, bolstering the region’s economic outlook.
Conversely, Mexico’s performance slightly dampened the aggregate ICE improvement, having led to a positive change in the fourth quarter of 2023, FGV notes.
Brazil’s optimistic future prospects significantly influenced its ICE, which rose by 14.6 points to 114.6 in the favorable zone.
The Brazilian ISA stood unchanged at 100.0 points, whereas the IE surged by 30.3 points to 130.0.
A query in the Q1 survey about Javier Milei‘s presidency in Argentina revealed that 90% of Brazilian experts foresee impacts on Brazil’s economy.
FGV anticipates Argentina’s fiscal measures could deepen its economic downturn in 2024 more than in 2023. This situation has already impacted Argentina’s trade contributions to Brazil.
In January 2024, Argentina’s share of Brazilian exports dropped to a record low of 2.8%.
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