Datafolha Presidential Polls Split Brazil by Region
Brazil · ELECTIONS
Key Facts
- —São Paulo first round Flávio Bolsonaro 37%, Lula 33%
- —Rio de Janeiro first round Flávio Bolsonaro 41%, Lula 36%
- —Minas Gerais first round Lula 37%, Flávio Bolsonaro 31%
- —Pernambuco first round Lula 56%, Flávio Bolsonaro 24%
- —National first round Lula 39%, Flávio Bolsonaro 33%
The national six-point lead for Lula hides a sharp regional split: Bolsonaro’s son leads in two Southeast states. While Lula dominates the Northeast.
Datafolha presidential polls released on Saturday 22 August 2026 show Brazil split by region. With Flávio Bolsonaro leading in São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro while Lula dominates Minas Gerais and Pernambuco.
The state-level numbers, published by Folha de S. Paulo and g1, reveal a country divided along economic and historical lines.
Datafolha Presidential Polls Reveal Regional Divide
Datafolha presidential polls, commissioned by Folha de S. Paulo and TV Globo, covered five states and the federal district.
Fieldwork ran from Tuesday 18 to Friday 21 August 2026, depending on the state. The national survey, released on Friday 21 August, put Lula at 39% and Flávio Bolsonaro at 33% in the first round.
However, the state breakdowns show that this six-point lead is not uniform across the country. The state polls were commissioned by the same clients as the national survey.
However, they were registered separately with the electoral court. The state polls were registered with the electoral court under distinct numbers.
In addition, the national survey was registered as BR-04496/2026.
São Paulo and Rio Favor Bolsonaro
In São Paulo, Brazil’s largest electorate, Flávio Bolsonaro of the right-wing Liberal Party (PL) leads with 37% against Lula’s 33%. The gap of 4 points is larger than the margin of error of 2 percentage points.
Rio de Janeiro shows an even wider lead for Bolsonaro, with 41% to Lula’s 36%. That 5-point gap is larger than the poll’s 3-point margin of error.
São Paulo’s poll was registered as BR-07185/2026, with 1,610 interviews. Meanwhile, Rio’s registration was BR-08448/2026, with 1,204 interviews.
Flávio Bolsonaro is a serving senator for Rio de Janeiro and the eldest son of former president Jair Bolsonaro. Meanwhile, Lula is the sitting president in his third term.
Minas Gerais and Pernambuco Back Lula
By contrast, Lula, the sitting president from the left-wing Workers’ Party (PT), leads in Minas Gerais with 37% against Bolsonaro’s 31%. The 6-point gap is double the 3-point margin of error.
Pernambuco, the only Northeast state polled, gives Lula a commanding 56% to 24% lead. That 32-point gap is far beyond the 3-point margin, making it the strongest result for Lula in this batch.
Minas Gerais registered as BR-04396/2026, and Pernambuco as BR-00109/2026. Both had 1,204 interviews and a 3-point margin of error.
The Northeast is historically pro-Lula, and Pernambuco’s 32-point lead reflects that. However, Minas Gerais, a Southeast state, also backs Lula, showing regional nuances.
Every Gap Is Wider Than the Error Margin
In all four state contests, the gap between the two leaders is larger than that poll’s margin of error. Each result therefore points in a clear direction.
For example, São Paulo’s 4-point gap against a 2-point margin and Rio’s 5-point gap against 3 points both confirm clear leads. Meanwhile, Minas Gerais and Pernambuco show Lula ahead by margins that are statistically significant.
The gaps in all four states exceed their respective margins of error. As a result, each contest shows a clear leader, not a tie.
Each margin of error is specific to its state’s sample size. As a result, these gaps are statistically significant, not ties.
Approval Ratings Mirror the Voting Patterns
Lula’s government approval ratings follow a similar regional pattern. In São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro, only 27% rate his government as great or good, while 48% say bad or terrible.
In Pernambuco, 46% approve of Lula’s government, the best score among the five units surveyed. The Distrito Federal, which contains the capital Brasília, shows the worst rejection at 51% bad or terrible.
Lula’s approval in Minas Gerais was not reported in this batch. However, the Distrito Federal showed the worst rejection score at 51%.
Lula’s approval in São Paulo and Rio is low, matching his vote share there. Meanwhile, Pernambuco’s high approval aligns with his strong lead.
Understanding the Regional Definitions
The Southeast (Sudeste) is Brazil’s richest and most populous region, including São Paulo, Rio de Janeiro, and Minas Gerais. The Northeast (Nordeste) is poorer and historically pro-Lula, with Pernambuco as one of its states.
The Distrito Federal sits in the Centre-West (Centro-Oeste) region. Although it was polled, no clean Lula-versus-Flávio presidential figure is available for it, only government approval numbers.
São Paulo is called the biggest ‘colégio eleitoral’ in Portuguese. It simply means the largest bloc of registered voters.
The Distrito Federal, containing Brasília, is in the Centre-West. Although polled, its presidential figure is not reported, only approval numbers.
Methodology and Registration Details
Each state poll was registered with Brazil’s top electoral court, the Tribunal Superior Eleitoral (TSE), as required by law. The registration numbers allow the public to check the methodology.
Meanwhile, São Paulo had 1,610 interviews with a 2-point margin of error. Rio, Minas Gerais, and Pernambuco each had 1,204 with a 3-point margin.
The Distrito Federal poll had 910 interviews with a 3-point margin. A registration number starting with BR- is filed nationally with the TSE.
The São Paulo survey also carries a state-level number, SP-01806/2026. Datafolha is owned by Folha de S.
Paulo and is a widely cited pollster. The registration numbers ensure transparency, as required by the TSE.
What These Polls Mean for October
Brazil votes in October 2026, and a candidate needs over 50% in the first round to avoid a runoff. These first-round figures are separate from any runoff scenario, so they should not be compared directly.
The regional split suggests that the campaign will be fought on local ground. While Bolsonaro’s son dominates in the Southeast’s biggest states, Lula’s strength in the Northeast could prove decisive.
The regional pattern shows Bolsonaro leading in two Southeast states, while Lula leads in another. Meanwhile, Pernambuco, a Northeast state, gives Lula a 32-point lead.
The regional divide could shape campaign strategies in the coming months. However, these first-round figures do not predict the October outcome.
Datafolha Presidential Polls Summary
In short, Datafolha presidential polls show a Brazil divided by region, with no single candidate leading everywhere. Flávio Bolsonaro leads in São Paulo and Rio, while Lula leads in Minas Gerais and Pernambuco.
These state numbers come from the same field operation as the governor polls but are a separate set of questions. Overall, the picture is one of a fragmented electorate heading into the October vote.
Datafolha is owned by Folha de S. Paulo and is a widely cited pollster.
The state numbers were published on Saturday 22 August 2026. The state numbers were published on Saturday 22 August 2026.
Meanwhile, the national survey, released a day earlier, showed a different overall picture.
Frequently Asked Questions
What do the Datafolha presidential polls show for São Paulo?
In São Paulo, Flávio Bolsonaro leads with 37% against Lula’s 33% in the first round. The margin of error is 2 percentage points, so the 4-point gap is statistically significant.
Is Lula ahead in any Southeast state?
Yes, Lula leads in Minas Gerais with 37% to Bolsonaro’s 31%. This is despite Minas Gerais being part of the Southeast, where Bolsonaro leads in the other two states polled.
Why is there no presidential figure for the Distrito Federal?
The Distrito Federal was polled, but the reporting mixes the presidential question with the local governor race. Therefore, only government approval numbers are available, showing 27% approval and 51% disapproval.
What is the margin of error for these state polls?
São Paulo has a margin of error of 2 percentage points. While Rio de Janeiro, Minas Gerais, and Pernambuco each have 3 points.
Connected Coverage
Sources: Datafolha; Folha de S.Paulo; g1; TSE, Brazil’s top electoral court, poll register.
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