Datafolha State Polls: Big Leads in São Paulo, Rio and Minas
Brazil · ELECTIONS
Key Facts
- —São Paulo Tarcísio de Freitas leads with 45% against Fernando Haddad’s 27%
- —Rio de Janeiro Eduardo Paes has 41%, Douglas Ruas 19%, Anthony Garotinho 9%
- —Minas Gerais Cleitinho Azevedo leads with 32% in the first round
- —Polling dates Fieldwork for all three ran between 18 and 21 August 2026
- —Registration Each poll is registered with the electoral court, as required by Brazilian law
With the October vote approaching, the latest surveys show clear front-runners in three of Brazil’s most populous states.
Datafolha state polls show big leads in São Paulo, Rio and Minas Gerais ahead of the October elections. The surveys, published on Friday 21 August 2026, were conducted for Folha and TV Globo.
São Paulo Governor Race
In São Paulo, incumbent governor Tarcísio de Freitas has 45% support, while Fernando Haddad trails with 27%. If the race goes to a runoff, Tarcísio leads 54% to 35%.
The fieldwork for this poll took place on 18 and 19 August 2026, with a sample of 1,610 people. The margin of error is 2 percentage points, and the poll is registered as SP-01806/2026 and BR-07185/2026.
Rio de Janeiro Governor Race
In Rio de Janeiro, mayor Eduardo Paes leads with 41% of the vote. Douglas Ruas follows with 19%, and Anthony Garotinho has 9%.
The poll was conducted between 18 and 21 August 2026, with a sample of 1,204 people. Its margin of error is 3 percentage points, and it is registered as RJ-02945/2026.
Minas Gerais Governor Race
In Minas Gerais, Cleitinho Azevedo leads the first round with 32% support. The poll ran from 18 to 20 August 2026, with a sample of 1,204 people.
The margin of error here is also 3 percentage points, and the poll is registered as MG-00446/2026. No runoff figures were released for this state.
What the Numbers Mean
A margin of error of 3 points means the true figure is likely within 3 points either side of the reported number. Therefore, the leads in Rio and Minas are significant but not insurmountable.
In São Paulo, however, Tarcísio’s 18-point lead in the first round is well outside the 2-point margin of error. As a result, his advantage looks solid.
The Candidates
Tarcísio de Freitas is the sitting governor of São Paulo. Fernando Haddad is a former mayor of the city and served as finance minister.
Eduardo Paes is the mayor of Rio de Janeiro. Cleitinho Azevedo’s background was not detailed in the poll release.
Still, his lead in Minas Gerais puts him in a strong position.
How the Elections Work
Brazil holds state and federal elections in October 2026. Governors are elected in a first round, with a runoff between the top two if nobody passes 50%.
Because none of the leaders in these polls exceed 50%, runoffs are likely in all three states. In São Paulo, the runoff would be between Tarcísio and Haddad.
Poll Registration
Every published poll in Brazil must be registered with the electoral court, which is why each carries a registration number. This requirement ensures transparency and accountability.
For example, the São Paulo poll has two registration numbers, while Rio and Minas each have one. These numbers allow the public to verify the poll’s details.
Datafolha State Polls Context
The Datafolha state polls come just over a month before the October elections. They provide a snapshot of voter intentions in three key states.
In addition, these polls were conducted for Folha and TV Globo, two major Brazilian media outlets. Their results are widely reported and discussed.
What Happens Next
Campaigns will likely intensify as the election date approaches. Meanwhile, voters will have more opportunities to hear from the candidates.
Overall, these Datafolha state polls show a clear front-runner in each state. The outcome still rests with voters in October.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is leading in the São Paulo governor race according to the Datafolha state polls?
Tarcísio de Freitas leads with 45% support, while Fernando Haddad has 27%. In a runoff, Tarcísio would win with 54% to 35%.
What is the margin of error for the Rio de Janeiro poll?
The margin of error is 3 percentage points. This means the true support for each candidate is likely within 3 points of the reported figure.
Are there runoff figures for Rio de Janeiro or Minas Gerais?
No, the Datafolha state polls did not release runoff figures for these states. Only first-round numbers were provided.
Why do the polls have registration numbers?
Brazilian law requires every published poll to be registered with the electoral court. This ensures transparency and allows verification.
Connected Coverage
Sources: Datafolha; Folha de S.Paulo; TSE poll register.
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