Brazil Poll: Lula Leads Flávio Bolsonaro by Six Points

Brazil · ELECTIONS

The poll shows a tight race ahead of Brazil’s October election, with the gap within the margin of error.

Datafolha, the polling institute of the newspaper Folha de S. Paulo, puts Lula six points ahead of Flávio Bolsonaro in Brazil’s presidential race.

The poll, published on Friday 21 August 2026, shows Lula with 39% support against Flávio Bolsonaro’s 33% in the first round.

Datafolha Shows Lula Leading

Datafolha, the polling institute of the newspaper Folha de S. Paulo, published the survey on Friday 21 August 2026.

Fieldwork took place on Tuesday 18 and Wednesday 19 August 2026. The poll interviewed 2,058 voters aged 16 and over.

The margin of error is 2 percentage points.

First Round Numbers

In the first round, Lula has 39% and Flávio Bolsonaro 33%. That gives Lula a six-point lead, as the headline states.

However, the margin of error is 2 points, so the true gap could be as small as two points. Still, a six-point lead is outside the margin, so it is a reliable advantage.

Other Candidates Trail

The poll also tested other candidates in the first round. Ronaldo Caiado has 5%, Renan Santos 4%, and Romeu Zema 3%.

These numbers are far behind the top two. Therefore, the race appears to be a two-person contest.

Runoff Scenario

In a runoff against Flávio Bolsonaro, Lula leads 47% to 43%. This four-point gap is also within the margin of error.

Because the margin is 2 points, the runoff lead is not a sure thing. Even so, Lula holds a numerical advantage.

Government Approval Split

The poll also measured approval of the government. Approval stands at 47%, while disapproval stands at 50%.

This near-even split suggests a divided electorate. Meanwhile, the election is set for October 2026.

Poll Commissioned by Folha and TV Globo

Datafolha conducted the poll for Folha and TV Globo. It is registered with the electoral court, the TSE, Brazil’s top electoral court,, under number BR-04496/2026.

This registration is standard for Brazilian polls. In addition, it ensures transparency.

Understanding the Margin of Error

A margin of error of 2 points means the true figure is likely within 2 points either side. A gap smaller than that is not a reliable lead.

For example, the runoff gap of 4 points is exactly twice the margin. Thus, it is a lead, but not a commanding one.

What Happens Next

Brazil’s presidential election is held in October 2026. If no candidate passes 50% in the first round, the top two go to a runoff.

Given the current numbers, a runoff seems likely. As a result, voters may see a second round between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro.

Datafolha Methodology

The sample size is 2,058 voters aged 16 and over. The margin of error is 2 percentage points.

This methodology is standard for national polls. Overall, Datafolha provides a snapshot of voter intentions.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is Datafolha?

Datafolha is the polling institute of the newspaper Folha de S. Paulo.

How many people were surveyed in this Datafolha poll?

The poll surveyed 2,058 voters aged 16 and over. The margin of error is 2 percentage points.

What are the first-round numbers in the Datafolha poll?

In the first round, Lula has 39% and Flávio Bolsonaro 33%. Other candidates trail far behind.

When is the Brazilian presidential election?

The election is in October 2026. If no candidate gets over 50%, the top two go to a runoff.

Sources: Datafolha; Folha de S.Paulo; TSE poll register.