Chile’s Kast may dispute part of Patagonia with Argentina, raising dangers of conflict

RIO DE JANEIRO, BRAZIL – Before this morning’s meeting between Foreign Ministries on both sides of the Andean Cordillera, Argentine President Alberto Fernández and his cabinet had been watching the Chilean election with a sidelong glance. In particular, what worries them is what is perceived as the “anti-Argentinean” style of the candidate of the Social Christian Front, who emerged this Sunday as a favorite for the runoff election on December 19.

In a press conference with international media a week before the elections, José Antonio Kast had already pointed against the country: “The great development that Chile has had has been to be able to harmonize well that it is not the State, generally, the one that produces or generates the best quality in some things. If we look at the example of Argentina, which could be an agri-food and energy power and is not, it is because it is a bad State”.

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“We have giant States, which say they are benefactors, but they have their people in misery and poverty. If we compare with Argentina, they are clearly in a situation of poverty that one could imagine. That is because they have a bad Government,” he added.

In his celebratory speech on election Sunday night in Las Condes, Kast said: “Chile does not want to go down the path of the dictatorships of Venezuela, Nicaragua, and Cuba or ….. other countries that are not doing well”. That silence of seconds was to avoid naming Argentina.

The migratory crisis and the Mapuche violence in Araucania were the engines of the growth of the conservative candidate; specifically, the Mapuche situation represents a problem for the Argentine government. Kast has no nuances when talking about the Mapuche issue, he directly describes them as terrorists and proposes a repressive solution. This earned him resounding support of 45% of the votes in the region.

The eminence grise behind all this discourse is Jorge Guzmán, lawyer and professor at the Austral University, who advises Kast on international issues and deepens the radical nationalist style. This allows predicting that Mapuche violence, the Continental Shelf, and the Southern Ice Fields (an extension of continental ice located in the Patagonian Andes, on the border between Argentina and Chile) will be sensitive issues if the ultra-right governs.

Guzman has made his professional career based on the conflict between Argentina and Chile in the Antarctic zone.

In a text published in the website El Líbero, in the context of the conflict over the Chilean decision to update the 200-mile limits of Argentina’s continental shelf projected from the Diego Ramírez and Barnevelt Islands, he anticipates some topics that could be part of Chilean state policy in the face of an eventual Kast government: “The rejection vote of the Argentine Senate confirms (in case it was necessary) that, as we have maintained for years, we are in the presence of a new border dispute, perhaps, due to its obvious geostrategic implications equal or more complex than the one caused by Argentina regarding its exotic claim over the islands south of the Beagle Channel.”

“As it happened since 1977, in this matter, Argentina’s approaches (there are always several) will be marked by its internal scenario. It is evident that, for Peronism in particular, and Kirchnerism in particular, unity in the face of Chilean expansionism is instrumental in joining forces with a view to the next elections in November.

This is even more obvious after last September’s poor electoral result, which included a defeat in the Province of Santa Cruz, the cradle of Kirchnerism and its frivolously anti-Chilean irredentism”, he continues.

Kast took up these ideas again in an exchange with Santiago Cafiero on Twitter. “Argentina has already stolen enough territory from Chileans. I hope that the government stands firm against the expansionist delusions of the Argentine radical left”, he replied to the Argentine Foreign Minister.

The ideological distances between the Frente de Todos and Kast are notorious. Still, at this point, the concern is not only that, but also that this type of attitude revives the idea of a conflict hypothesis.

“Chile must avoid getting involved in the process of political settlement of the problem (in which our best rights are always relativized), and prepare for a process that will demand years of work and patience,” anticipates Guzman in his articles.

On the Argentine side of the border, on the other hand, a defense specialist explained that “If Kast wins, we will understand the cost of not investing in defense, not necessarily because of a direct military threat, but because of the impossibility of sustaining our foreign policy with that instrument.”

Kast has designed an economic program that does not include Argentina and has decided that if he wins in December, these tensions will cross the bilateral relation.

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