Brazil’s Leaders Project Political Scenarios With Lula Running for Office

RIO DE JANEIRO, BRAZIL – The likelihood of the Federal Supreme Court (STF) paving the way for the release of former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, overturning the conviction in the Guarujá triplex case and restoring the leftist’s eligibility, has stirred up politics.

Behind the scenes, leaders of several parties feel that an eventual return of Lula to the presidential race would have the potential to benefit his main antagonist, President Jair Bolsonaro, and strengthen the polarization of the last campaign, marked by anti-PT rhetoric.

Two court cases that will be resumed soon could have a direct impact on the former president’s status. In November, the STF will finalize the review of cases involving the early enforcement of post-conviction sentences, which could result in Lula’s release from prison.

To restore the right to run for office, however, Lula is counting on another case, which deals with allegations that former Lava Jato judge Sérgio Moro was biased in judging him and then taking office as Minister of Justice in Bolsonaro’s government.

Carlos Siqueira, president of the PSB, told O Estado de Sao Paulo that “it is very likely that politics will become even more polarized and also radicalized, since Lula and Bolsonaro are two very antagonistic political forces,” and he cast doubt on Lula’s ability to reconcile the left-wing.

Asked if the PSB could “blindly” follow Lula, he did not hesitate. “We will not follow anyone ‘blindly'”, he said. “Let’s let things happen. We will only reason from concrete data.”

According to political scientist Marco Aurélio Nogueira, if the former president returns to the political game there will be an escalation of a “contentious” situation in the country.

“He would be, perhaps, the main focus for criticism of Bolsonarism and would in exchange be radicalized by the other side of the political dynamic”.

For the former governor of Espírito Santo, Paulo Hartung, “it is not possible to foresee” the political consequences of a scenario in which Lula is free and can once again run for election.

“2022 is a mirage. Nobody knows at what time there could be a short circuit, as happened in 2013 in Brazil and now in Chile,” said Hartung, when asked about the chance of confrontation between left and right wings.

Currently, in the private sector, Hartung is part of the RenovaBR Movement and is an advisor and organizer of a potential candidacy of TV host Luciano Huck to the Planalto.

When participating yesterday in the 12th Meeting of Leaders of Comunitas, in São Paulo, Huck said that Brazil could suffer a “social upheaval in the medium term”, if it does not combine efficient social policies with liberal actions.

The TV host nearly entered the arena in 2018 but then desisted. Now, he has not yet confirmed his candidacy, but he has been greatly stalked by the Cidadania party.

Its supporters want to build an alternative, a center party, but it is precisely this middle of the political spectrum that runs the risk of being asphyxiated by the persistent division in society, which may worsen with Lula’s potential return to the political scene.

Alexandre Padilha, a former minister in Lula and Dilma Rousseff’s government, said the former president “completely changes” the electoral game, even if he is prevented from running, because “he can create consensus in times of great polarization”.

Suspense

At the Supreme Court, justices heard in private by the newspaper O Estado de S. Paulo believe that Lula will be released from prison, where he has been since April last year.

The question is “when” and “how”. The leftist has already been convicted by two successive appellate courts for passive corruption and money laundering in the Guarujá’s triplex case.

The Court expects that, despite the provisional score of 4 to 3 in favor of imprisonment after conviction affirmed by an appellate court, there will be a turnaround in the next session.

If the STF decides that incarceration can occur only after all appeals are exhausted, based on the “presumption of innocence”, Lula will be released from the Federal Police Superintendency in Curitiba, Paraná.

In this scenario, the former president could await a final decision on his case by the courts in freedom, but he would remain ineligible for public office.

To be a candidate again, Lula expects the STF’s Second Panel to uphold the lawsuit that calls for Moro’s suspicion. The case was initiated in December last year when Justice Gilmar Mendes asked for a review – more time for consideration.

Now, the case must be resumed, gaining new contours after the disclosure of alleged exchange of private messages between Moro and Lava Jato task force prosecutors, disclosed by The Intercept Brasil website.

Within the Second Panel, the rapporteur of Lava Jato in the STF, Justice Edson Fachin, and Justice Cármen Lúcia, have already voted against Lula’s petition, but Justices Gilmar Mendes and Ricardo Lewandowski should position themselves in favor of the leftist, leaving the tiebreaking vote to the longest-serving Justice, Celso de Mello.

The Estado de S. Paulo found that Celso has already shown discomfort with Moro’s private messages and signaled that he could follow the other two dissenting votes.

According to Justice Marco Aurélio Mello, there is no risk of social upheaval in the country with the outcome of these trials. “I thought that his arrest could cause some commotion, and turbulence in the past, but it did not. No risk. There is strength in the Supreme Court,” he said.

Although those in military barracks do not appreciate the chance that Lula will be released and run again for office if Moro’s bias is decreed, the military should not comment on the STF’s judgments. The official discourse is that, in democracies, court decisions are not commented on, but only enforced.

Off the record, the assessment of ranking members of the Armed Forces is that releasing Lula would mean condemning the entire legal system in the country. Under this understanding, magistrates from lower courts would have “voted wrongly” and thus reinforced the sense of impunity.

On Thursday, Justice Rosa Weber‘s vote, which pointed to the Supreme Court’s inclination to overturn its position and prohibit imprisonment after a sentence is confirmed by an appellate court, was poorly accepted by the Army’s High Command.

Source: O Estado de S. Paulo.