Brazil’s Industrial Production Sees a Minor Dip in October

Brazil’s industrial sector recorded a slight decline of 0.2% in October compared to September, as reported by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).

This drop follows two months of growth, where production had increased by a cumulative 1.2%. Despite this recent setback, the year-on-year data reveals a more positive picture.

Over the past twelve months, industrial output has grown by 3%, and for the year so far, it has risen by 3.4%. Current production levels are 2.6% above pre-pandemic figures from February 2020.

However, they still lag 14.4% behind the record high set in May 2011. The October results fell short of market expectations. Financial institutions and consultancies had anticipated stability based on their survey.

Predictions varied, with some expecting a decline of up to 0.7% and others forecasting an increase. In September, production had been revised down from an initial increase of 1.1% to 1.0%.

The decline in October was mainly driven by semi-durable and non-durable goods, which represent about 25% of the industrial sector.

Six out of the twenty-five industrial segments surveyed reported negative growth, particularly in petroleum derivatives and biofuels, which saw a decrease of 2.0% after a significant rise in September.

Looking at broader categories within the industrial sector, three out of four major categories showed increases from September to October. Capital goods rose by 1.6%, with a notable year-over-year increase of 15.3%.

Intermediate goods also grew by 0.4% month-over-month and by 5% compared to October 2023; this category accounts for approximately 55% of total industrial output.

In addition, durable goods production increased by 4.4% from September to October and experienced an impressive annual rise of 19.6%.

In contrast, semi-durable and non-durable goods faced a slight month-over-month contraction of 0.7%. However, they still recorded an annual increase of 4.2%.

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