Selic Cut Bets Reach 86.5% as Brazil Awaits Focus | Morning Call, Oct 13
Key Facts
- The Selic wager dominates with prediction markets implying an 86.5% chance of another quarter-point cut to 13.50% at the 3-4 November Copom meeting (Polymarket, 11:05 pm ET, 12 October).
- Today’s BCB Focus survey at 08:30 BRT is the first hard read on whether economists are trimming their inflation and Selic forecasts before the bell.
- August retail sales on Thursday 15 October will test the rate-cut trade; the consensus is +0.8% month on month after a 0.8% drop in July.
- B3 reopens today after Monday’s holiday closure; the Ibovespa last closed on Friday 9 October at 209,066.90 points, up 1.38%.
- Brazilian service-sector data for August arrive later this week, while US consumer prices (CPI) on Wednesday will colour the global rate backdrop.
Today’s Focus
Tuesday’s B3 reopening after Monday’s holiday closure will be shaped by one domestic survey and one policy wager. Traders are positioned for the central bank to keep easing: the Selic, Brazil’s benchmark rate, sits at 13.75% after a September cut, and Polymarket pricing now assigns an 86.5% probability to another 25-basis-point cut in early November.
The first test of that view comes at 08:30 BRT when the central bank publishes its Focus survey of professional forecasts. If inflation expectations drift lower and the projected Selic path softens, rate-sensitive Brazilian shares and the real can catch a bid from locals before the 10:00 bell.
August retail sales follow on Thursday, with a consensus of +0.8%. A reading near or above that would signal that demand is holding up, which could make the central bank’s doves a little more careful about promising cuts too far ahead.
No verified Brazilian earnings release or corporate event is on today’s calendar, so rates will drive the open. Brazilian banks, homebuilders and retailers move most directly with interest-rate expectations, and Argentina’s September inflation print at 4 pm BRT (consensus 1.9% month on month) is the main regional data point.
What matters today. Whether the Focus survey reinforces or chips away at the market’s aggressive pricing of another Selic cut in November will set the tone for B3 and the real today.
Today’s Economic Events
| Instrument | Level | Session |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 (US) | 7,807 | -0.06% |
| USD/BRL | 4.9871 | -0.00% |
Source: market close, 12 October 2026.
01 The setup in one read
B3 opens on Tuesday with the focus firmly on the central bank’s easing path rather than any global headline. The Selic, Brazil’s benchmark interest rate, stands at 13.75%, and the market’s central scenario is that the Copom, the bank’s policy committee, will cut it to 13.50% at the next meeting in early November.
Monday’s Our Lady of Aparecida holiday closed B3, so the Focus survey is the first domestic test of that position. The BCB Focus survey, a weekly poll of economists’ inflation, growth and rate forecasts, arrives at 08:30 BRT, with August services data later this week and retail sales on Thursday.
The corporate side is thin: no verified Brazilian earnings release is on today’s calendar. The Ibovespa last closed on Friday 9 October at 209,066.90 points, up 1.38%.
Beyond Brazil, US consumer-price data on Wednesday will frame how much room emerging-market central banks have to ease. For the B3 open, though, the domestic information flow is what matters.
The evidence is balanced. The rate-cut wager is strong and the Focus survey is a real domestic catalyst, but no verified Ibovespa futures indication and no confirmed Brazilian earnings catalyst mean the open depends on how the survey lands. If inflation forecasts rise, expect rate-sensitive shares to wobble as traders trim November cut odds. Watch the Selic forecast line in the Focus survey above all.
02 Where Brazil is set to open
| Instrument | Last close | Indicated | Watch today |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ibovespa index futures | — | No verified indication | Focus survey for rate direction |
| USD/BRL forward | — | No verified opening indication | Selic expectations and US inflation ripple |
| Ibovespa | 209,066.90 | Closed Monday | Up 1.38% on Friday 9 October |
| Rate-sensitive B3 stocks | — | Depends on data | Focus survey |
The board carries the last settled prices, but the real opening signal will come from the 08:30 BRT Focus survey. No verified Ibovespa or currency futures indication is available for this morning call, and we will not invent one.
Watch the real’s level against the dollar after the Focus read. If economists mark down their year-end Selic forecasts, the Brazilian currency can attract yield-seeking flow; if inflation forecasts rise, the central bank may sound more cautious and the real could soften. Rio Times · Live Market Intelligence
Live Market IntelligenceBrazil Morning Call — Live Board
Brazil Morning Call — Live Board
Instrument Last Change YoY Prev. High Low Volume
IBOV
209,066.90
+1.38%
+21.85%
206,220.24
168,310
167,142
—
USD/BRL
5.16
+0.01%
-5.13%
5.16
5.18
5.14
—
EUR/BRL
5.95
+1.01%
-5.83%
5.89
5.98
5.94
—
SELIC
14.00%
—
—
—
—
—
BRENT
88.88
-0.03%
+34.42%
88.91
90.07
88.12
29,713
WTI
83.11
-0.11%
+31.57%
83.20
84.35
82.40
166,848
IRON ORE
161.91
—
+58.10%
161.91
161.91
1
GOLD
4,461
+1.78%
+33.20%
4,383
4,503
4,421
139,824
SILVER
65.59
+1.26%
+73.05%
64.77
66.98
64.81
46,406
LITHIUM
75.20
+1.47%
+62.95%
74.11
75.80
75.08
89,275
SOY
1,184
+3.20%
+17.05%
1,148
1,199
1,168
163,179
CORN
480.50
+10.02%
+29.34%
436.75
480.75
459.50
341,248
WHEAT
655.00
+3.93%
+29.70%
630.25
657.75
631.50
128,793
COFFEE
317.25
-5.51%
+0.67%
335.75
321.20
313.55
21,747
SUGAR
16.43
-1.79%
-3.01%
16.73
17.11
16.22
171,992
ORANGE JUICE
138.55
-0.47%
-45.38%
139.20
141.05
137.50
703
COTTON
85.03
+2.33%
+26.78%
83.09
82.90
81.96
16,546
BEEF
223.60
-3.93%
-5.18%
232.75
226.40
223.00
16,126
CATTLE
339.10
-3.16%
-1.82%
350.17
345.50
338.60
10,164
COCOA
5,719
+3.18%
-34.96%
5,543
5,779
5,574
26,773
PETR4
41.64
-0.05%
+35.19%
41.66
41.97
41.15
41,499,400
VALE3
72.97
+0.83%
+30.75%
72.37
73.54
72.66
17,658,000
SUZB3
41.33
+2.35%
-23.55%
40.38
41.48
40.35
3,914,900
KLABIN
17.69
+0.80%
-2.95%
17.55
17.74
17.48
2,057,400
SLCE3
13.34
+0.30%
-12.25%
13.30
13.42
13.20
1,454,200
ABEV3
14.89
-0.80%
+21.91%
15.01
15.07
14.81
16,453,100
ITUB4
38.60
-1.03%
+4.57%
39.00
39.34
38.39
29,487,800
BBDC4
16.85
+0.36%
+3.50%
16.79
16.90
16.67
19,416,900
BBAS3
19.37
+0.47%
+0.73%
19.28
19.44
19.16
11,069,200
B3SA3
14.26
-0.21%
+12.73%
14.29
14.47
14.11
33,037,800
WEGE3
47.59
+0.49%
+29.99%
47.36
48.08
47.36
3,364,600
PRIO3
59.14
-0.19%
+50.67%
59.25
59.81
58.74
3,325,600
RENT3
34.68
-0.09%
+0.84%
34.71
34.96
34.35
7,979,100
AZZA3
15.89
-2.63%
-53.76%
16.32
16.42
15.82
1,330,300
CSNA3
4.30
+0.47%
-42.65%
4.28
4.41
4.26
10,076,100
GGBR4
24.69
+2.19%
+51.38%
24.16
24.85
24.18
7,047,600
ENEV3
24.21
-1.38%
+70.49%
24.55
24.64
23.99
9,297,000
LREN3
11.87
-1.33%
-28.65%
12.03
12.17
11.83
9,683,300
03 On the B3 radar this week — domestic data
| Item | When | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| BCB Focus Market Readout | 08:30 BRT | The weekly economists’ survey is the first hard test of November rate-cut pricing |
| August retail sales | Thu 15 Oct | Consensus +0.8% month on month versus -0.8% in July; strength could trim cut odds |
| Brazil service-sector growth | This week | A second demand-side read that can shift Selic expectations |
| US consumer prices (CPI) | Wed 14 Oct, 09:30 BRT | The September US inflation print frames global rate expectations for emerging markets |
| B3 corporate earnings | — | No verified Brazilian earnings release identified for today |
Today’s B3 radar is macro-heavy and micro-light. The Focus survey is the earliest and clearest window into whether professional forecasters still back another 25-basis-point Selic cut in November, which would bring the rate to 13.50%.
The retail-sales print on Thursday is the emotional one. A reading at or above consensus would signal Brazilian consumers are absorbing elevated rates better than expected, a fact that could make the Copom’s doves less bold in their forward talk.
No verified corporate event is scheduled for today, so macro drives the session.
04 Copom and the macro backdrop
The Copom, Brazil’s monetary policy committee, lowered the Selic rate to 13.75% at its September meeting. A 25-basis-point cut was the choice, and traders now put the probability of another one at 86.5% for the 3-4 November decision.
That leaves a slim but real 9% chance of no change, which is where the Focus survey can bite. The Focus survey will reveal whether the economists the central bank watches most closely are still comfortable with the easing path.
August retail sales add texture: if demand rebounds from the 0.8% drop in July, the argument for patience grows. If it disappoints, the market’s current cut pricing may look even more justified.
Later this week, the Thomson Reuters Ipsos PCSI consumer-confidence reading for Brazil will arrive, offering a softer gauge of household sentiment. None of this exists in a vacuum, but for the B3 open the Focus survey is the main event.
05 Corporate stories to watch today
The corporate calendar is sparse. No verified Brazilian earnings release has been identified for today, so this is not a session for fresh profit reports moving stocks.
The nearest hard date is macro rather than corporate: Argentina’s September inflation print is due at 4 pm BRT, with a consensus of 1.9% month on month.
For broader positioning, rate-sensitive Brazilian names remain the trade to watch. Banks, homebuilders and discretionary retailers have the most at stake if Thursday’s retail-sales figure changes the market’s read on how quickly the Selic can fall.
Company filings on the B3 and CVM (securities regulator) websites remain the place to check for any surprise announcement during the session.
06 The levels to watch at the open
The decisive input is the Focus survey’s inflation and Selic projection line. If the survey shows economists trimming their rate outlook, expect a pro-risk open for Brazilian banks and retailers; if it holds firm or turns slightly more cautious, the early tone may be guarded.
On the currency side, watch how the real responds to the same survey. A softer inflation outlook can support the currency by keeping the yield advantage attractive to foreign investors.
Thursday’s retail-sales print is the next trigger. A beat could briefly lift consumer-discretionary shares even as it clouds the rate-cut story, while a miss would do the opposite.
Absent a major surprise, the Focus survey will be the most visible driver in the first minutes. The real story of the open is macro, not micro.
07 What to watch
- BCB Focus survey details: The Selic and inflation forecast lines will confirm or dent the 86.5% probability on a November cut
- August retail sales (Thursday) vs 0.8% consensus: A beat argues consumers are holding up, which could slow the central bank’s easing talk
- USD/BRL response to local data: A hawkish-sounding survey or hot retail print could push the real off its recent levels
- US CPI on Wednesday at 09:30 BRT: A high print would complicate the global rate narrative and may spill into Brazilian assets after the domestic data rush
Background: IPC Gains 1.06% to 66,746.78 as Peso Firms.
Background: Gold Fund Falls 0.59% as Dollar Index Climbs.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Selic and why does it matter for B3 today?
The Selic is Brazil’s benchmark interest rate, set by the Copom at 13.75%. Lower expectations support shares because cheaper credit helps bank earnings, housing demand and consumer spending.
What time are today’s key Brazil data releases?
The BCB Focus survey is at 08:30 BRT, before the 10:00 BRT cash equity open. August services data follow later this week and retail sales on Thursday.
Was B3 open on Monday?
No. B3 was closed on Monday 12 October for the Our Lady of Aparecida holiday, so the Ibovespa’s last close is Friday 9 October at 209,066.90 points.
What do prediction markets say about the next Selic cut?
Polymarket traders put the chance of a 25-basis-point cut at the 3-4 November Copom meeting at 86.5%, with 9% for no change. These are bets, not forecasts by the central bank.
Market data: RT
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief
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