Brazil’s Financial Morning Call for May 23, 2025
Brazil’s markets face a relatively light domestic economic calendar today, with the CFTC BRL speculative net positions as the primary local event, directing attention to global economic indicators that will influence Brazil’s export-driven economy.
Key international events in the United Kingdom, Eurozone, United States, and Canada are expected to shape expectations for global demand, industrial activity, and consumer spending, impacting Brazilian assets, commodities, and currency stability.
These global developments are critical amid Brazil’s high Selic interest rates at 14.75%, fiscal concerns following a R$31.3 billion budget cut, and external pressures such as U.S. debt worries and fluctuating commodity prices.
The Brazilian real’s recent volatility, the Ibovespa’s sharp decline from record highs, and commodity export performance will be tested by today’s releases, which include retail sales, GDP data, housing market indicators, and speculative position reports.
In Brazil, at 03:30 PM (BRT), the CFTC BRL speculative net positions (previous: 43.5K) will provide insights into speculative sentiment toward the Brazilian real, influencing currency stability and investor confidence in a high-interest-rate environment.
In the United Kingdom, at 02:00 AM (BRT), Retail Sales (YoY) (previous: 2.6%) and Retail Sales (MoM) (consensus: 0.4%, previous: 0.4%) for April will gauge consumer spending trends, impacting demand for Brazilian agricultural and industrial exports.
Strong retail sales could bolster trade optimism, while weaker figures may signal reduced demand. In the Eurozone, at 02:00 AM (BRT), German GDP (QoQ) and German GDP (YoY) for Q1 will be released, both with a consensus and previous reading of 0.2%.
These figures will signal economic growth in a major market for Brazilian exports. Stable or improved growth could support demand for Brazilian commodities, while stagnation may dampen trade prospects.
In the United States, at 08:30 AM (BRT), Building Permits (consensus: 1.412M, previous: 1.467M) and at 10:00 AM (BRT), New Home Sales (consensus: 696K, previous: 724K) for April will reflect housing market trends, influencing commodity demand for materials like steel and copper.
At 03:30 PM (BRT), CFTC Crude Oil speculative net positions (previous: 185.3K) will provide insights into oil market sentiment, affecting Brazil’s energy exports.
In Canada, at 08:30 AM (BRT), Core Retail Sales (MoM) (consensus: 0.2%, previous: 0.5%) and Retail Sales (MoM) (consensus: 0.3%, previous: 0.4%) for March will measure consumer spending in a key trading partner, impacting demand for Brazilian goods.
These global releases are pivotal for Brazil’s economic outlook, particularly for its commodity exports, currency stability, and equity markets, as investors navigate high domestic interest rates and global uncertainties driven by U.S. fiscal concerns and trade dynamics.
Economic Agenda for May 23, 2025
Brazil
- 03:30 PM – CFTC BRL speculative net positions: Actual TBD, consensus TBD, previous 43.5K. Tracks speculative sentiment, influencing currency stability and investor confidence.
United Kingdom
- 02:00 AM – Retail Sales (YoY) (Apr): Actual TBD, consensus TBD, previous 2.6%. Gauges annual consumer spending, impacting demand for Brazilian exports.
- 02:00 AM – Retail Sales (MoM) (Apr): Actual TBD, consensus 0.4%, previous 0.4%. Tracks monthly consumer spending, influencing trade outlook.
Eurozone
- 02:00 AM – German GDP (QoQ) (Q1): Actual TBD, consensus 0.2%, previous 0.2%. Signals quarterly economic growth, impacting demand for Brazilian commodities.
- 02:00 AM – German GDP (YoY) (Q1): Actual TBD, consensus 0.2%, previous 0.2%. Tracks annual economic growth, influencing trade flows.
United States
- 08:30 AM – Building Permits (Apr): Actual TBD, consensus 1.412M, previous 1.467M. Reflects housing market strength, influencing commodity demand.
- 10:00 AM – New Home Sales (Apr): Actual TBD, consensus 696K, previous 724K. Gauges housing market trends, impacting Brazil’s commodity exports.
- 03:30 PM – CFTC Crude Oil speculative net positions: Actual TBD, consensus TBD, previous 185.3K. Tracks oil market sentiment, affecting Brazil’s energy exports.
Canada
- 08:30 AM – Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Mar): Actual TBD, consensus 0.2%, previous 0.5%. Measures core consumer spending, impacting demand for Brazilian goods.
- 08:30 AM – Retail Sales (MoM) (Mar): Actual TBD, consensus 0.3%, previous 0.4%. Tracks overall consumer spending, influencing trade stability.
Brazil’s Markets Yesterday
On May 22, 2025, the Brazilian stock market faced significant pressure, with the Ibovespa index closing down 0.44% at 137,272.59 points, marking a cumulative loss of over 2,800 points in three trading sessions.
This decline followed a historic peak of 140,109.63 points on May 19, 2025, driven by domestic fiscal concerns. The federal government announced a R$31.3 billion budget cut, including a R$20.7 billion contingency and R$10.6 billion in additional blocks, exceeding market expectations of R$20–30 billion.
An upward revision of expenses by R$25.8 billion, primarily in Social Security and Continuous Cash Benefit (BPC), alongside an increase in the Tax on Financial Operations (IOF), heightened investor apprehension.
The Brazilian real weakened sharply, with the USD/BRL exchange rate surging to 5.72, reflecting fiscal uncertainty and global risk-off sentiment.
U.S. Markets Yesterday
U.S. stocks showed mixed performance on May 22, 2025, amid concerns over the U.S. government’s mounting debt following a House bill approval that could add trillions to the deficit.
The S&P 500 fell less than 0.1%, losing 2.60 points to close at 5,842.01. The Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped less than 0.1%, dropping 1.35 points to 41,859.09.
The Nasdaq composite rose 0.3%, gaining 53.09 points to 18,925.73. The Russell 2000 index of smaller companies fell less than 0.1%, shedding 0.99 points to 2,045.56. Treasury yields stabilized after earlier volatility, reflecting cautious investor sentiment.
Commodities
Brazilian Real
The Brazilian real experienced significant volatility on May 22, 2025, plunging to an exchange rate of USD/BRL 5.72, driven by a dramatic reversal of Thursday evening gains.
Domestic fiscal measures, including a R$31.3 billion budget cut and an IOF increase, compounded global risk-off sentiment. Today’s CFTC BRL speculative net positions, U.K. Retail Sales, and U.S. Building Permits may further influence currency volatility.
Oil Prices
Crude oil prices tumbled on May 22, 2025, as markets reacted to OPEC’s potential plans for a major production surge starting in July, raising concerns about oversupply.
This pressures Petrobras and Brazil’s oil export revenues. Today’s CFTC Crude Oil speculative net positions and U.S. New Home Sales will provide critical demand signals.
Gold Prices
Gold prices climbed steadily to $3,327 per ounce on May 22, 2025, driven by a weekly rally fueled by U.S. debt concerns and safe-haven demand, benefiting Brazil’s mining sector. Today’s German GDP data and U.S. Building Permits may influence safe-haven flows.
Silver Prices
Silver prices rebounded on May 22, 2025, after a sharp selloff tested market resilience, supported by industrial demand and supply constraints. This uptick bolsters Brazil’s mining exports. Today’s U.K. Retail Sales and Canadian Core Retail Sales will guide industrial demand trends.
Copper Prices
Copper prices slid below $4.70 per pound on May 22, 2025, as technical indicators signaled bearish momentum amid global demand concerns, pressuring Vale and Brazil’s commodity exports. Today’s German GDP and U.S. New Home Sales will clarify demand outlooks.
Cryptocurrencies
Bitcoin soared to a historic $112,000 on May 22, 2025, driven by a crypto market surge to $3.47 trillion, fueled by regulatory breakthroughs and institutional inflows, boosting Brazil’s fintech sector, including Mercado Livre and XP Inc.
Today’s U.S. Building Permits and Canadian Retail Sales may influence risk appetite and crypto sentiment.
Iron Ore Prices
Iron ore futures dropped below $100 per ton on May 22, 2025, as concerns over weakening Chinese demand outweighed supply constraints, pressuring Vale’s revenues. Today’s German GDP and Canadian Retail Sales will guide commodity demand trends.
Companies and Market
Industry Outlook
Brazil’s economy faces significant challenges amid domestic fiscal tightening, with the Ibovespa’s sharp decline to 137,272.59 points on May 22, 2025, reflecting investor concerns over a R$31.3 billion budget cut and an IOF increase. High Selic rates at 14.75% continue to curb inflation but strain growth, while fiscal risks persist with public debt nearing 80% of GDP. Today’s global data, including German GDP, U.K. Retail Sales, and U.S. New Home Sales, will shape currency stability and export demand outlooks.
Company Updates
JBS’s Dual Listing Challenges: JBS’s dual listing plans faced uncertainty on May 22, 2025, as minority shareholders remained divided over the proposal, impacting investor confidence in Brazil’s meatpacking sector. Today’s Canadian Retail Sales will influence sector sentiment.
Mercado Libre’s Leadership Transition: Mercado Libre announced on May 22, 2025, that founder Marcos Galperin will step down after 26 years, naming a successor, signaling a strategic shift in Brazil’s fintech and e-commerce giant. Today’s U.S. Building Permits will assess broader economic trends.
Infracommerce’s Capital Cut: Infracommerce executed an 87% capital reduction on May 22, 2025, to offset losses and restructure its balance sheet, reflecting challenges in Brazil’s e-commerce sector. Today’s U.K. Retail Sales will guide investor sentiment.
Live Market IntelligenceBrazil Morning Call — Live Board
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Brazil Morning Call — Live Board
-1.52%
174,041.95
-1.52%
66,247.47
-1.56%
10,950.74
+0.31%
3,283,854
-1.07%
2,274.53
-0.38%
58,287.01
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| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IBOV | 174,041.95 | -1.52% | +30.07% | 176,723.62 | 176,720 | 174,042 | — |
| USD/BRL | 5.08 | -0.18% | -8.00% | 5.08 | 5.09 | 5.05 | — |
| EUR/BRL | 5.78 | +0.08% | -10.91% | 5.78 | 5.80 | 5.75 | — |
| SELIC | 14.25% | — | — | — | — | — | |
| BRENT | 98.38 | -2.29% | +42.21% | 100.69 | 101.16 | 95.14 | 29,916 |
| WTI | 90.47 | -1.87% | +37.01% | 92.19 | 92.83 | 87.68 | 336,373 |
| IRON ORE | 161.91 | — | +64.24% | 161.91 | 161.91 | 1 | |
| GOLD | 4,056 | +0.22% | +20.31% | 4,047 | 4,085 | 4,024 | 112,402 |
| SILVER | 58.49 | +1.20% | +49.89% | 57.80 | 59.29 | 57.36 | 26,053 |
| LITHIUM | 67.81 | -1.75% | +51.94% | 69.02 | 68.69 | 67.73 | 177,410 |
| SOY | 1,253 | +1.21% | +24.72% | 1,238 | 1,257 | 1,238 | 166,916 |
| CORN | 487.25 | +5.01% | +21.28% | 464.00 | 492.00 | 479.25 | 257,469 |
| WHEAT | 679.00 | -2.48% | +25.39% | 696.25 | 711.25 | 659.50 | 117,726 |
| COFFEE | 314.20 | +1.55% | +3.07% | 309.40 | 318.55 | 306.40 | 14,168 |
| SUGAR | 14.76 | +0.48% | -10.92% | 14.69 | 14.79 | 14.54 | 45,966 |
| ORANGE JUICE | 142.65 | -2.83% | -57.91% | 146.80 | 146.15 | 141.50 | 345 |
| COTTON | 80.00 | +0.20% | +18.80% | 79.84 | 81.75 | 79.75 | 11,312 |
| BEEF | 222.58 | -1.25% | -1.43% | 225.40 | 224.13 | 220.78 | 19,283 |
| CATTLE | 342.05 | -0.50% | +4.00% | 343.77 | 345.48 | 337.25 | 9,940 |
| COCOA | 5,331 | +0.57% | -34.38% | 5,301 | 5,438 | 5,227 | 17,604 |
| PETR4 | 42.21 | -1.72% | +32.15% | 42.95 | 42.91 | 42.15 | 29,107,700 |
| VALE3 | 75.24 | -0.58% | +33.10% | 75.68 | 75.53 | 74.84 | 8,619,900 |
| SUZB3 | 41.84 | -1.39% | -18.76% | 42.43 | 42.25 | 41.63 | 3,639,400 |
| KLABIN | 17.52 | -0.79% | -5.27% | 17.66 | 17.59 | 17.32 | 3,680,600 |
| SLCE3 | 13.64 | -0.94% | -14.51% | 13.77 | 13.80 | 13.63 | 1,432,500 |
| ABEV3 | 15.64 | -1.76% | +15.85% | 15.92 | 15.90 | 15.61 | 15,223,800 |
| ITUB4 | 42.10 | -1.08% | +23.68% | 42.56 | 42.45 | 42.04 | 10,431,800 |
| BBDC4 | 18.48 | -1.28% | +17.86% | 18.72 | 18.64 | 18.42 | 13,961,200 |
| BBAS3 | 20.35 | -2.77% | +1.40% | 20.93 | 20.82 | 20.35 | 14,376,600 |
| B3SA3 | 15.44 | -1.34% | +17.68% | 15.65 | 15.67 | 15.43 | 35,146,900 |
| WEGE3 | 45.99 | +0.70% | +26.94% | 45.67 | 46.19 | 44.94 | 7,718,600 |
| PRIO3 | 58.82 | -2.84% | +39.05% | 60.54 | 60.27 | 58.46 | 5,375,200 |
| RENT3 | 36.89 | -0.67% | +2.56% | 37.14 | 37.38 | 36.59 | 4,733,700 |
| AZZA3 | 16.65 | -2.35% | -54.40% | 17.05 | 17.17 | 16.65 | 1,511,900 |
| CSNA3 | 5.36 | +1.13% | -37.31% | 5.30 | 5.45 | 5.24 | 8,132,600 |
| GGBR4 | 24.26 | +0.83% | +40.39% | 24.06 | 24.45 | 23.82 | 5,543,500 |
| ENEV3 | 24.90 | -3.11% | +79.65% | 25.70 | 25.58 | 24.87 | 4,494,600 |
| LREN3 | 13.27 | -0.75% | -22.31% | 13.37 | 13.49 | 13.18 | 7,799,800 |
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