Brazil’s Financial Morning Call for May 13, 2025
Brazil’s markets face a critical day as domestic and global economic indicators shape expectations for monetary policy, trade dynamics, and investor confidence in an export-driven economy navigating global trade optimism, domestic tightening, and lingering tariff uncertainties.
At 07:00 AM (BRT), the Central Bank of Brazil (BCB) will release the Copom Meeting Minutes, offering insights into the rationale behind its recent 50-basis-point Selic rate hike to 14.75%.
This release is pivotal for understanding the BCB’s stance on inflation, growth, and currency stability, influencing equities, fixed income, and the Brazilian real.
At 15:30 PM (BRT), the CFTC BRL speculative net positions (previous: 25.0K) will reveal speculative sentiment on the Brazilian real, impacting currency market dynamics.
Globally, at 06:30 AM (BRT), India’s CPI (YoY) for April (consensus: 3.27%, previous: 3.34%) will signal inflationary pressures in a key emerging market, affecting global risk appetite and demand for Brazilian assets.
A lower-than-expected reading could bolster capital flows to Brazil, while persistent inflation may weigh on sentiment. In the Eurozone, at 06:00 AM (BRT), ECOFIN Meetings will discuss fiscal and economic policies, potentially shaping global risk sentiment and demand for Brazilian exports.
In the United States, at 08:30 AM (BRT), CPI (YoY) (consensus: 2.4%, previous: 2.4%) and Core CPI (MoM) (consensus: 0.3%, previous: 0.1%) will provide critical insights into U.S. inflation trends, influencing Federal Reserve policy expectations and global capital flows, including the Brazilian real’s stability.
At 06:00 AM (BRT), the NFIB Small Business Optimism (consensus: 94.6, previous: 97.4) will gauge U.S. economic sentiment, indirectly affecting trade and commodity demand.
These releases are crucial for framing Brazil’s economic outlook, trade performance, and monetary policy stance amid global trade truce optimism and domestic inflationary challenges.
Economic Agenda for May 13, 2025
Brazil
- 07:00 AM – BCB Copom Meeting Minutes: Actual TBD, consensus TBD, previous TBD. Provides detailed insights into the BCB’s monetary policy decisions, guiding investor expectations and market sentiment.
- 15:30 PM – CFTC BRL speculative net positions: Actual TBD, consensus TBD, previous 25.0K. Reflects speculative positioning on the Brazilian real, influencing currency market trends.
India
- 06:30 AM (BRT) – CPI (YoY) (Apr): Actual TBD, consensus 3.27%, previous 3.34%. Signals inflationary pressures in a major emerging market, impacting global risk appetite and Brazilian asset demand.
United Kingdom
- 02:00 AM (BRT) – Average Earnings ex Bonus (Mar): Actual TBD, consensus TBD, previous 5.9%. Measures wage growth, influencing UK monetary policy and global risk sentiment.
- 02:00 AM (BRT) – Average Earnings Index +Bonus (Mar): Actual TBD, consensus 5.2%, previous 5.6%. Tracks wage growth with bonuses, affecting UK inflation expectations.
- 02:00 AM (BRT) – Claimant Count Change (Apr): Actual TBD, consensus 22.3K, previous 18.7K. Gauges labor market health, impacting global investor confidence.
- 02:00 AM (BRT) – Employment Change 3M/3M (MoM) (Mar): Actual TBD, consensus TBD, previous 206K. Measures employment trends, influencing UK economic outlook.
- 02:00 AM (BRT) – Unemployment Rate (Mar): Actual TBD, consensus 4.5%, previous 4.4%. Signals labor market conditions, affecting global risk appetite.
- 04:45 AM (BRT) – BoE MPC Member Pill Speaks: Actual TBD, consensus TBD, previous TBD. Provides monetary policy insights, influencing global markets.
- 11:00 AM (BRT) – BoE Gov Bailey Speaks: Actual TBD, consensus TBD, previous TBD. Shapes expectations for UK monetary policy, impacting global sentiment.
- 11:00 AM (BRT) – BoE MPC Member Pill Speaks: Actual TBD, consensus TBD, previous TBD. Further clarifies BoE policy stance, affecting markets.
Eurozone
- 04:40 AM (BRT) – Spanish 3-Month Letras Auction: Actual TBD, consensus TBD, previous 2.100%. Reflects short-term borrowing costs, influencing Eurozone sentiment.
- 05:00 AM (BRT) – German ZEW Current Conditions (May): Actual TBD, consensus -77.0, previous -81.2. Gauges current economic conditions, impacting Eurozone outlook.
- 05:00 AM (BRT) – German ZEW Economic Sentiment (May): Actual TBD, consensus 9.8, previous -14.0. Measures economic expectations, influencing global risk sentiment.
- 05:00 AM (BRT) – ZEW Economic Sentiment (May): Actual TBD, consensus -4.4, previous -18.5. Reflects broader Eurozone sentiment, affecting Brazilian exports.
- 05:30 AM (BRT) – German 2-Year Schatz Auction: Actual TBD, consensus TBD, previous 1.670%. Signals borrowing costs, impacting Eurozone market sentiment.
- 06:00 AM (BRT) – ECOFIN Meetings: Actual TBD, consensus TBD, previous TBD. Discusses fiscal and economic policies, shaping global risk sentiment and Brazilian export demand.
- 08:00 AM (BRT) – German Current Account Balance n.s.a (Mar): Actual TBD, consensus TBD, previous 20.0B. Reflects trade and capital flows, influencing Eurozone sentiment.
- 10:00 AM (BRT) – German Buba Balz Speaks: Actual TBD, consensus TBD, previous TBD. Provides ECB policy insights, affecting global markets.
United States
- 06:00 AM (BRT) – NFIB Small Business Optimism (Apr): Actual TBD, consensus 94.6, previous 97.4. Gauges small business sentiment, impacting trade and commodity demand.
- 08:30 AM (BRT) – Core CPI (MoM) (Apr): Actual TBD, consensus 0.3%, previous 0.1%. Measures core inflation, influencing Fed policy and global capital flows.
- 08:30 AM (BRT) – Core CPI (YoY) (Apr): Actual TBD, consensus TBD, previous 2.8%. Tracks annual core inflation, affecting Fed rate expectations.
- 08:30 AM (BRT) – CPI (YoY) (Apr): Actual TBD, consensus 2.4%, previous 2.4%. Signals overall inflation, impacting global risk appetite and the Brazilian real.
- 08:30 AM (BRT) – CPI (MoM) (Apr): Actual TBD, consensus 0.3%, previous -0.1%. Measures monthly inflation, influencing Fed policy outlooks.
- 08:55 AM (BRT) – Redbook (YoY): Actual TBD, consensus TBD, previous 6.9%. Tracks retail sales trends, affecting U.S. economic sentiment.
- 11:00 AM (BRT) – Cleveland CPI (MoM) (Apr): Actual TBD, consensus TBD, previous 0.3%. Provides regional inflation insights, impacting Fed expectations.
- 11:30 AM (BRT) – 52-Week Bill Auction: Actual TBD, consensus TBD, previous 3.820%. Reflects U.S. borrowing costs, influencing global capital flows.
- 16:30 PM (BRT) – API Weekly Crude Oil Stock: Actual TBD, consensus TBD, previous -4.490M. Signals oil inventory trends, impacting crude prices and Petrobras.
South Africa
- 05:30 AM (BRT) – Unemployment Rate (Q1): Actual TBD, consensus TBD, previous 31.90%. Gauges labor market health, affecting emerging market sentiment.
- 05:30 AM (BRT) – Unemployment (Q1): Actual TBD, consensus TBD, previous 7.991M. Tracks unemployment levels, influencing global risk appetite.
New Zealand
- 18:45 PM (BRT) – Electronic Card Retail Sales (YoY) (Apr): Actual TBD, consensus TBD, previous -1.6%. Measures retail spending trends, impacting global sentiment.
- 18:45 PM (BRT) – Electronic Card Retail Sales (MoM) (Apr): Actual TBD, consensus TBD, previous -0.8%. Tracks monthly retail activity, affecting risk sentiment.
South Korea
- 19:00 PM (BRT) – Unemployment Rate (Apr): Actual TBD, consensus TBD, previous 2.9%. Signals labor market conditions, influencing Asian market sentiment.
Japan
- 19:50 PM (BRT) – PPI (MoM) (Apr): Actual TBD, consensus 0.2%, previous 0.4%. Measures producer price changes, impacting Asian commodity demand.
- 19:50 PM (BRT) – PPI (YoY) (Apr): Actual TBD, consensus 4.0%, previous 4.2%. Tracks annual producer inflation, affecting global commodity markets.
Australia
- 21:30 PM (BRT) – Wage Price Index (YoY) (Q1): Actual TBD, consensus TBD, previous 3.2%. Measures wage growth, influencing Australian monetary policy.
- 21:30 PM (BRT) – Wage Price Index (QoQ) (Q1): Actual TBD, consensus 0.8%, previous 0.7%. Tracks quarterly wage changes, impacting global sentiment.
Brazil’s Markets Yesterday
Brazil’s Ibovespa inched up 0.04% to 136,563 on Monday, May 12, 2025, marking a six-month high as easing U.S.-China trade tensions offset concerns over slowing growth.
The index has risen 13.5% year-to-date, nearing its May 2025 peak of 137,635. Rising stocks outpaced decliners 567 to 406, with exporters like Petrobras (+3.4%) and Vale (+2.8%) leading gains after Washington and Beijing agreed to slash reciprocal tariffs to 10% from 125% for 90 days.
Domestic financials lagged, however, as traders scaled back bets on Federal Reserve rate cuts. Banco do Brasil slid 1.6%, testing key support at R$28.80. B3, the exchange operator, reported flat Q1 net income of R$1.13 billion despite a 7.1% equity revenue drop.
Fixed income (+22%) and derivatives (+10%) compensated, while cost cuts boosted margins. Shares gained 10% last week, adding R$6.2 billion in value.
U.S. Markets Yesterday
U.S. stocks leapt after China and the United States announced a 90-day truce in their trade war. The S&P 500 jumped 3.3% (184.28 points) to 5,844.19.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 2.8% (1,160.72 points) to 42,410.10, and the Nasdaq composite rallied 4.3% (779.43 points) to 18,708.34.
The Russell 2000 index of smaller companies rose 3.4% (69.12 points) to 2,092.20. Hopes for an economy less encumbered by tariffs also sent crude oil prices higher.
The U.S. dollar strengthened, and Treasury yields jumped on expectations the Federal Reserve won’t have to cut interest rates deeply this year. Analysts warned conditions could still change rapidly, as has often happened in President Donald Trump’s trade wars.
Commodities
Brazilian Real
The Brazilian real extended its rally on Monday, May 12, 2025, with USD/BRL falling to a six-month low, driven by the Central Bank’s tight policy and optimism from the U.S.-China tariff truce.
The currency’s strength supports Brazil’s import costs but pressures exporters.трим Today’s BCB Copom Meeting Minutes and CFTC BRL speculative net positions will guide currency outlooks.
Oil Prices
Crude oil prices retreated slightly on Monday, May 12, 2025, as supply glut fears outweighed optimism from the U.S.-China trade truce, impacting Petrobras and Brazil’s oil export revenues. Today’s API Weekly Crude Oil Stock and U.S. CPI data will signal demand trends, influencing oil price outlooks.
Gold Prices
Gold plummeted 2.7% on Monday, May 12, 2025, to a three-month low as the U.S.-China tariff truce eroded safe-haven demand, pressuring Brazil’s mining sector. Export stability persists, but today’s U.S. CPI and ECOFIN Meetings may sway investor sentiment.
Silver Prices
Silver rebounded to $33.02 on Monday, May 12, 2025, as trade shifts offset a surge in industrial demand, aiding Brazil’s mining exports, particularly in electronics and solar applications. Today’s India CPI and U.S. CPI will guide demand trends.
Copper Prices
Copper prices held steady on Monday, May 12, 2025, as traders weighed tariff relief against supply risks, supporting Vale and Brazil’s commodity exports. Today’s ECOFIN Meetings and U.S. CPI will clarify demand outlooks.
Cryptocurrencies
Bitcoin stabilized above $100,000 on Monday, May 12, 2025, after weekend volatility, with ETF inflows supporting Brazil’s fintech sector, particularly Inter & Co. Today’s U.S. CPI and NFIB Small Business Optimism may influence risk appetite and crypto sentiment.
Iron Ore Prices
Iron ore prices edged higher on Monday, May 12, 2025, on trade truce optimism, though Chinese demand concerns persist, supporting Vale’s revenues. Today’s India CPI and U.S. CPI will guide commodity demand trends.
Companies and Market
Industry Outlook
Brazil’s industrial sector showed resilience in Q1 2025, with exporters like Petrobras and Vale benefiting from the U.S.-China trade truce, though domestic financials face pressure from high interest rates and slowing growth concerns.
Today’s BCB Copom Meeting Minutes and U.S. CPI will provide critical insights into inflationary pressures and industrial demand, shaping monetary policy and industrial outlooks.
Company Updates
Inter & Co’s Profit Surge: Inter & Co’s Q1 2025 profit soared, driven by a 60-30-30 growth strategy, though challenges remain in meeting ambitious targets, bolstering fintech sector optimism.
BTG Pactual’s Record Profit: BTG Pactual reported a Q1 2025 profit of R$3.4 billion, up 28%, driven by investment banking and wealth management, signaling banking sector strength.
Braskem’s Turnaround: Braskem posted a Q1 2025 profit surge after years of losses, though cash flow challenges persist, reflecting resilience in the petrochemical sector.
More: Brazil news in English, every day from The Rio Times.
Live Market IntelligenceBrazil Morning Call — Live Board
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Brazil Morning Call — Live Board
+0.46%
187,197.46
+0.46%
63,594.53
-0.97%
10,908.18
-0.56%
2,758,840
-2.15%
2,530.05
-0.75%
59,831.84
-0.13%
| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IBOV | 187,197.46 | +0.46% | +21.85% | 186,340.46 | 168,310 | 167,142 | — |
| USD/BRL | 5.16 | +0.01% | -5.13% | 5.16 | 5.18 | 5.14 | — |
| EUR/BRL | 5.95 | +1.01% | -5.83% | 5.89 | 5.98 | 5.94 | — |
| SELIC | 14.00% | — | — | — | — | — | |
| BRENT | 88.88 | -0.03% | +34.42% | 88.91 | 90.07 | 88.12 | 29,713 |
| WTI | 83.11 | -0.11% | +31.57% | 83.20 | 84.35 | 82.40 | 166,848 |
| IRON ORE | 161.91 | — | +58.10% | 161.91 | 161.91 | 1 | |
| GOLD | 4,461 | +1.78% | +33.20% | 4,383 | 4,503 | 4,421 | 139,824 |
| SILVER | 65.59 | +1.26% | +73.05% | 64.77 | 66.98 | 64.81 | 46,406 |
| LITHIUM | 75.20 | +1.47% | +62.95% | 74.11 | 75.80 | 75.08 | 89,275 |
| SOY | 1,184 | +3.20% | +17.05% | 1,148 | 1,199 | 1,168 | 163,179 |
| CORN | 480.50 | +10.02% | +29.34% | 436.75 | 480.75 | 459.50 | 341,248 |
| WHEAT | 655.00 | +3.93% | +29.70% | 630.25 | 657.75 | 631.50 | 128,793 |
| COFFEE | 317.25 | -5.51% | +0.67% | 335.75 | 321.20 | 313.55 | 21,747 |
| SUGAR | 16.43 | -1.79% | -3.01% | 16.73 | 17.11 | 16.22 | 171,992 |
| ORANGE JUICE | 138.55 | -0.47% | -45.38% | 139.20 | 141.05 | 137.50 | 703 |
| COTTON | 85.03 | +2.33% | +26.78% | 83.09 | 82.90 | 81.96 | 16,546 |
| BEEF | 223.60 | -3.93% | -5.18% | 232.75 | 226.40 | 223.00 | 16,126 |
| CATTLE | 339.10 | -3.16% | -1.82% | 350.17 | 345.50 | 338.60 | 10,164 |
| COCOA | 5,719 | +3.18% | -34.96% | 5,543 | 5,779 | 5,574 | 26,773 |
| PETR4 | 41.64 | -0.05% | +35.19% | 41.66 | 41.97 | 41.15 | 41,499,400 |
| VALE3 | 72.97 | +0.83% | +30.75% | 72.37 | 73.54 | 72.66 | 17,658,000 |
| SUZB3 | 41.33 | +2.35% | -23.55% | 40.38 | 41.48 | 40.35 | 3,914,900 |
| KLABIN | 17.69 | +0.80% | -2.95% | 17.55 | 17.74 | 17.48 | 2,057,400 |
| SLCE3 | 13.34 | +0.30% | -12.25% | 13.30 | 13.42 | 13.20 | 1,454,200 |
| ABEV3 | 14.89 | -0.80% | +21.91% | 15.01 | 15.07 | 14.81 | 16,453,100 |
| ITUB4 | 38.60 | -1.03% | +4.57% | 39.00 | 39.34 | 38.39 | 29,487,800 |
| BBDC4 | 16.85 | +0.36% | +3.50% | 16.79 | 16.90 | 16.67 | 19,416,900 |
| BBAS3 | 19.37 | +0.47% | +0.73% | 19.28 | 19.44 | 19.16 | 11,069,200 |
| B3SA3 | 14.26 | -0.21% | +12.73% | 14.29 | 14.47 | 14.11 | 33,037,800 |
| WEGE3 | 47.59 | +0.49% | +29.99% | 47.36 | 48.08 | 47.36 | 3,364,600 |
| PRIO3 | 59.14 | -0.19% | +50.67% | 59.25 | 59.81 | 58.74 | 3,325,600 |
| RENT3 | 34.68 | -0.09% | +0.84% | 34.71 | 34.96 | 34.35 | 7,979,100 |
| AZZA3 | 15.89 | -2.63% | -53.76% | 16.32 | 16.42 | 15.82 | 1,330,300 |
| CSNA3 | 4.30 | +0.47% | -42.65% | 4.28 | 4.41 | 4.26 | 10,076,100 |
| GGBR4 | 24.69 | +2.19% | +51.38% | 24.16 | 24.85 | 24.18 | 7,047,600 |
| ENEV3 | 24.21 | -1.38% | +70.49% | 24.55 | 24.64 | 23.99 | 9,297,000 |
| LREN3 | 11.87 | -1.33% | -28.65% | 12.03 | 12.17 | 11.83 | 9,683,300 |
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