Copper Prices Hold Steady as Traders Weigh Tariff Relief Against Supply Risks
Copper markets showed cautious stability early Tuesday, with London Metal Exchange (LME) three-month contracts hovering at $9,547 per metric ton after a 0.7% drop in U.S. Comex futures to $4.5785 per pound.
Prices fluctuated within a narrow band overnight as traders digested the partial U.S.-China tariff rollback announced Monday, which temporarily cut Chinese duties on American imports from 125% to 10%.
The tariff relief initially fueled a 1.1% rally in LME copper on Monday, but momentum stalled as analysts noted remaining U.S. import taxes at 30%. Physical traders reported muted buying activity in Shanghai, where inventories fell just 10% last week compared to prior 23.5% drops.
Chile’s 14% annual production decline through March and Peru’s stagnant output exacerbated supply concerns, with LME stockpiles shrinking to 190,750 tons – their lowest since April 2023.
Copper Market Faces Near-Term Oversupply
Technical indicators signaled consolidation, with the 50-day moving average at $9,412 acting as support. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) held at 47.7, reflecting balanced momentum, while Bollinger Bands tightened to their narrowest range since February.
A decisive break above $9,600 could trigger short-covering, but bears point to weakening MACD divergence and resistance at May’s $9,884 high. Futures volumes dipped 12% overnight as institutional players awaited clearer demand signals.
The Sprott Copper Miners ETF (COPP) saw $2.3 million in outflows Tuesday morning, extending its 4.7% monthly decline. Goldman Sachs maintained its bullish stance, citing accelerated U.S. inventory drawdowns and upgrading its Q3 target to $9,150 per ton.
Market participants now focus on Wednesday’s U.S. CPI data and China’s industrial production figures. The International Copper Study Group forecasts a 300,000-ton surplus this year, contrasting with projected deficits in 2026.
Traders are balancing near-term oversupply risks with structural deficits driven by aging mines and growing green energy demand. The copper market’s ability to hold above $9,500 this week may set the tone for summer trading.
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Commodities — Live Market Board
-0.03%
| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GOLD | 4,461 | +1.78% | +33.20% | 4,383 | 4,503 | 4,421 | 139,824 |
| SILVER | 65.59 | +1.26% | +73.05% | 64.77 | 66.98 | 64.81 | 46,406 |
| BRENT | 88.88 | -0.03% | +34.42% | 88.91 | 90.07 | 88.12 | 29,713 |
| WTI | 83.11 | -0.11% | +31.57% | 83.20 | 84.35 | 82.40 | 166,848 |
| COPPER | 6.61 | +0.03% | +46.70% | 6.61 | 6.71 | 6.61 | 39,543 |
| LITHIUM | 75.20 | +1.47% | +62.95% | 74.11 | 75.80 | 75.08 | 89,275 |
| IRON ORE | 161.91 | — | +58.10% | 161.91 | 161.91 | 1 | |
| SOY | 1,184 | +3.20% | +17.05% | 1,148 | 1,199 | 1,168 | 163,179 |
| CORN | 480.50 | +10.02% | +29.34% | 436.75 | 480.75 | 459.50 | 341,248 |
| WHEAT | 655.00 | +3.93% | +29.70% | 630.25 | 657.75 | 631.50 | 128,793 |
| COFFEE | 317.25 | -5.51% | +0.67% | 335.75 | 321.20 | 313.55 | 21,747 |
| SUGAR | 16.43 | -1.79% | -3.01% | 16.73 | 17.11 | 16.22 | 171,992 |
| COCOA | 5,719 | +3.18% | -34.96% | 5,543 | 5,779 | 5,574 | 26,773 |
| ORANGE JUICE | 138.55 | -0.47% | -45.38% | 139.20 | 141.05 | 137.50 | 703 |
| COTTON | 85.03 | +2.33% | +26.78% | 83.09 | 82.90 | 81.96 | 16,546 |
| BEEF | 223.60 | -3.93% | -5.18% | 232.75 | 226.40 | 223.00 | 16,126 |
| CATTLE | 339.10 | -3.16% | -1.82% | 350.17 | 345.50 | 338.60 | 10,164 |
| USD/BRL | 5.16 | +0.01% | -5.13% | 5.16 | 5.18 | 5.14 | — |
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