Brazil’s Financial Morning Call for July 17, 2025
Brazil’s financial markets are set for a pivotal session today, driven by a robust global economic calendar and ongoing trade tensions.
The U.S.’s 50% tariffs on Brazilian imports, effective August 1, 2025, continue to weigh on export-driven sectors like agriculture and energy, with the Brazilian real facing pressure amid heightened global risk aversion.
The Central Bank of Brazil’s Selic rate, steady at 15% since June 18, 2025, targets inflation at 5.53%—well above the 3% ceiling—while elevating borrowing costs for domestic firms.
A 76.2% public debt-to-GDP ratio and a projected R$104 billion fiscal deficit for 2025 amplify challenges for sectors like retail and construction.
Today’s sole domestic release, the IGP-10 Inflation Index (MoM) for July at 7:00 AM EST (8:00 AM BRT), will provide insights into wholesale, consumer, and construction price trends, critical for assessing inflationary pressures and guiding Central Bank policy expectations.
Globally, key events include UK labor market data, Eurozone inflation metrics, U.S. retail sales, and Japan’s CPI, which will shape demand for Brazil’s oil, metals, and agricultural exports.
These indicators are pivotal for gauging global risk sentiment and Brazil’s commodity-driven markets, especially as trade frictions with the U.S. intensify.
Economic Agenda
Brazil
- 7:00 AM EST / 8:00 AM BRT – IGP-10 Inflation Index (MoM) (Jul): Actual TBD, Consensus TBD, Previous -1.0%. Tracks wholesale, consumer, and construction price trends, offering insights into inflationary pressures.
This release is critical for shaping Central Bank of Brazil (BCB) policy expectations and investor sentiment amid high borrowing costs and trade uncertainties.
Key Events
United Kingdom
- 2:00 AM EST / 3:00 AM BRT – Average Earnings ex Bonus (May): Actual 5.0%, Consensus 4.9%, Previous 5.3%. Measures wage growth excluding bonuses, influencing UK monetary policy and commodity demand.
- 2:00 AM EST / 3:00 AM BRT – Average Earnings Index +Bonus (May): Actual 5.0%, Consensus 5.0%, Previous 5.4%. Tracks overall wage growth, impacting consumer spending and Brazil’s export demand.
- 2:00 AM EST / 3:00 AM BRT – Claimant Count Change (Jun): Actual 25.9K, Consensus 17.9K, Previous 15.3K. Reflects labor market dynamics, influencing global risk sentiment.
- 2:00 AM EST / 3:00 AM BRT – Employment Change 3M/3M (MoM) (May): Actual 134K, Consensus 46K, Previous 89K. Signals job growth trends, affecting demand for Brazilian commodities.
- 2:00 AM EST / 3:00 AM BRT – Unemployment Rate (May): Actual 4.7%, Consensus 4.6%, Previous 4.6%. Gauges labor market health, impacting global trade sentiment.
Switzerland
- 2:00 AM EST / 3:00 AM BRT – Trade Balance (Jun): Actual 5.790B, Consensus 4.220B, Previous 4.008B. Tracks trade dynamics, indirectly influencing Brazil’s commodity export outlook.
Hong Kong
- 4:30 AM EST / 5:30 AM BRT – Unemployment Rate (Jun): Actual TBD, Consensus TBD, Previous 3.5%. Reflects labor market conditions in a key Asian market, impacting global risk appetite.
Europe
- 4:40 AM EST / 5:40 AM BRT – Spanish 10-Year Obligacion Auction: Actual TBD, Consensus TBD, Previous 3.163%. Signals borrowing costs, affecting Eurozone demand for Brazilian exports.
- 4:40 AM EST / 5:40 AM BRT – Spanish 5-Year Bonos Auction: Actual TBD, Consensus TBD, Previous 2.506%. Reflects investor confidence, influencing trade flows.
- 5:00 AM EST / 6:00 AM BRT – Core CPI (YoY) (Jun): Actual TBD, Consensus 2.3%, Previous 2.3%. Measures core inflation, impacting ECB policy and Brazil’s export demand.
- 5:00 AM EST / 6:00 AM BRT – Core CPI (MoM) (Jun): Actual TBD, Consensus 0.4%, Previous 0.0%. Tracks monthly core inflation, affecting trade sentiment.
- 5:00 AM EST / 6:00 AM BRT – CPI (MoM) (Jun): Actual TBD, Consensus 0.3%, Previous 0.0%. Signals consumer price trends, influencing commodity demand.
- 5:00 AM EST / 6:00 AM BRT – CPI (YoY) (Jun): Actual TBD, Consensus 2.0%, Previous 1.9%. Measures annual inflation, critical for Brazil’s export markets.
- 5:00 AM EST / 6:00 AM BRT – CPI ex Tobacco (YoY) (Jun): Actual TBD, Consensus TBD, Previous 1.8%. Tracks inflation excluding tobacco, impacting trade dynamics.
- 5:00 AM EST / 6:00 AM BRT – CPI ex Tobacco (MoM) (Jun): Actual TBD, Consensus TBD, Previous -0.1%. Reflects monthly price trends, affecting export demand.
- 5:00 AM EST / 6:00 AM BRT – CPI, n.s.a (Jun): Actual TBD, Consensus 129.07, Previous 128.71. Provides raw inflation data, influencing ECB policy.
- 5:00 AM EST / 6:00 AM BRT – HICP ex Energy & Food (YoY) (Jun): Actual TBD, Consensus 2.4%, Previous 2.4%. Tracks core inflation, impacting Brazil’s commodity exports.
- 5:00 AM EST / 6:00 AM BRT – HICP ex Energy and Food (MoM) (Jun): Actual TBD, Consensus 0.3%, Previous 0.1%. Measures monthly core inflation, affecting trade sentiment.
United States
- 8:30 AM EST / 9:30 AM BRT – Continuing Jobless Claims: Actual TBD, Consensus 1,970K, Previous 1,965K. Tracks ongoing unemployment claims, influencing U.S. economic sentiment.
- 8:30 AM EST / 9:30 AM BRT – Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Jun): Actual TBD, Consensus 0.3%, Previous -0.3%. Measures consumer spending, critical for Brazil’s export demand.
- 8:30 AM EST / 9:30 AM BRT – Export Price Index (YoY) (Jun): Actual TBD, Consensus TBD, Previous 1.7%. Tracks export price trends, impacting trade flows.
- 8:30 AM EST / 9:30 AM BRT – Export Price Index (MoM) (Jun): Actual TBD, Consensus 0.0%, Previous -0.9%. Signals monthly export price changes, affecting Brazil’s exports.
- 8:30 AM EST / 9:30 AM BRT – Import Price Index (MoM) (Jun): Actual TBD, Consensus 0.3%, Previous 0.0%. Measures import price trends, impacting global trade.
- 8:30 AM EST / 9:30 AM BRT – Import Price Index (YoY) (Jun): Actual TBD, Consensus TBD, Previous 0.2%. Tracks annual import price trends, influencing trade sentiment.
- 8:30 AM EST / 9:30 AM BRT – Initial Jobless Claims: Actual TBD, Consensus 233K, Previous 227K. Signals labor market health, impacting commodity demand.
- 8:30 AM EST / 9:30 AM BRT – Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg.: Actual TBD, Consensus TBD, Previous 235.50K. Provides labor market trends, affecting risk sentiment.
- 8:30 AM EST / 9:30 AM BRT – Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Jul): Actual TBD, Consensus -1.2, Previous -4.0. Gauges manufacturing activity, critical for Brazil’s commodity exports.
- 8:30 AM EST / 9:30 AM BRT – Philly Fed Business Conditions (Jul): Actual TBD, Consensus TBD, Previous 18.3. Signals business sentiment, impacting trade flows.
- 8:30 AM EST / 9:30 AM BRT – Philly Fed CAPEX Index (Jul): Actual TBD, Consensus TBD, Previous 14.50. Tracks capital expenditure trends, influencing export demand.
- 8:30 AM EST / 9:30 AM BRT – Philly Fed Employment (Jul): Actual TBD, Consensus TBD, Previous -9.8. Measures employment trends, affecting commodity demand.
- 8:30 AM EST / 9:30 AM BRT – Philly Fed New Orders (Jul): Actual TBD, Consensus TBD, Previous 2.3. Signals industrial demand, critical for Brazil’s exports.
- 8:30 AM EST / 9:30 AM BRT – Philly Fed Prices Paid (Jul): Actual TBD, Consensus TBD, Previous 41.40. Tracks input price trends, influencing inflation expectations.
- 8:30 AM EST / 9:30 AM BRT – Retail Control (MoM) (Jun): Actual TBD, Consensus 0.3%, Previous 0.4%. Measures core retail sales, impacting Brazil’s export outlook.
- 8:30 AM EST / 9:30 AM BRT – Retail Sales (MoM) (Jun): Actual TBD, Consensus 0.1%, Previous -0.9%. Tracks consumer spending, critical for global demand.
- 8:30 AM EST / 9:30 AM BRT – Retail Sales (YoY) (Jun): Actual TBD, Consensus TBD, Previous 3.29%. Signals annual consumer spending trends, affecting exports.
- 8:30 AM EST / 9:30 AM BRT – Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos (MoM) (Jun): Actual TBD, Consensus TBD, Previous -0.1%. Measures core retail activity, influencing trade sentiment.
- 10:00 AM EST / 11:00 AM BRT – Business Inventories (MoM) (May): Actual TBD, Consensus 0.0%, Previous 0.0%. Tracks inventory levels, impacting commodity demand.
- 10:00 AM EST / 11:00 AM BRT – FOMC Member Kugler Speaks
- 10:00 AM EST / 11:00 AM BRT – NAHB Housing Market Index (Jul): Actual TBD, Consensus 33, Previous 32. Gauges housing market sentiment, affecting construction material demand.
- 10:00 AM EST / 11:00 AM BRT – Retail Inventories Ex Auto (May): Actual TBD, Consensus 0.2%, Previous 0.2%. Signals retail inventory trends, impacting trade flows.
- 10:30 AM EST / 11:30 AM BRT – Natural Gas Storage: Actual TBD, Consensus 44B, Previous 53B. Tracks gas inventory levels, influencing energy markets.
- 11:30 AM EST / 12:30 PM BRT – 4-Week Bill Auction: Actual TBD, Consensus TBD, Previous 4.235%. Reflects U.S. borrowing costs, influencing capital flows.
- 11:30 AM EST / 12:30 PM BRT – 8-Week Bill Auction: Actual TBD, Consensus TBD, Previous 4.275%. Reflects U.S. borrowing costs, influencing capital flows.
- 12:45 PM EST / 1:45 PM BRT – FOMC Member Daly Speaks
- 1:00 PM EST / 2:00 PM BRT – Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q2): Actual TBD, Consensus 2.6%, Previous 2.6%. Provides GDP growth estimates, impacting global risk sentiment.
- 1:30 PM EST / 2:30 PM BRT – Fed Governor Cook Speaks
- 4:00 PM EST / 5:00 PM BRT – US Foreign Buying, T-bonds (May): Actual TBD, Consensus TBD, Previous -40.80B. Tracks foreign investment in U.S. bonds, affecting capital flows.
- 4:00 PM EST / 5:00 PM BRT – Overall Net Capital Flow (May): Actual TBD, Consensus TBD, Previous -14.20B. Measures capital inflows, impacting emerging markets.
- 4:00 PM EST / 5:00 PM BRT – TIC Net Long-Term Transactions (May): Actual TBD, Consensus TBD, Previous -7.8B. Tracks long-term capital flows, influencing Brazil’s real.
- 4:00 PM EST / 5:00 PM BRT – TIC Net Long-Term Transactions including Swaps (May): Actual TBD, Consensus 48.30B, Previous -7.80B. Signals capital flow trends, affecting currency stability.
- 6:30 PM EST / 7:30 PM BRT – Fed Waller Speaks
Canada
- 8:30 AM EST / 9:30 AM BRT – Foreign Securities Purchases (May): Actual TBD, Consensus -7.32B, Previous -9.36B. Tracks foreign investment in Canadian securities, impacting trade sentiment.
- 8:30 AM EST / 9:30 AM BRT – Foreign Securities Purchases by Canadians (May): Actual TBD, Consensus TBD, Previous 4.100B. Reflects Canadian investment abroad, influencing trade flows.
Japan
- 7:30 PM EST / 8:30 PM BRT – CPI, n.s.a (MoM) (Jun): Actual TBD, Consensus TBD, Previous 0.3%. Tracks monthly inflation, impacting commodity demand.
- 7:30 PM EST / 8:30 PM BRT – National Core CPI (YoY) (Jun): Actual TBD, Consensus 3.4%, Previous 3.7%. Measures core inflation, influencing Brazil’s export outlook.
- 7:30 PM EST / 8:30 PM BRT – National CPI (YoY) (Jun): Actual TBD, Consensus TBD, Previous 3.5%. Signals annual inflation trends, affecting trade sentiment.
New Zealand
- 11:00 PM EST / 12:00 AM BRT (Jul 18) – Credit Card Spending (YoY) (Jun): Actual TBD, Consensus TBD, Previous 2.2%. Reflects consumer spending trends, impacting global demand.
Brazil’s Markets Yesterday
On July 16, 2025, Brazil’s B3 stock market closed slightly higher, with the Ibovespa settling at 135,510.99 points, marking a gain of 0.19%.
Trading volumes stayed close to recent averages, confirming active participation from institutional and retail traders despite uncertainty. Heavyweights like Vale provided stability, supported by a 1.05% rebound in iron ore futures to 773 yuan.
GPA led gains, surging over 10% as the Diniz family increased its stake, signaling confidence in Brazil’s retail sector. Usiminas led losses following a downgrade by a major investment bank and a sharp reduction in its target price.
The Brazilian real rose slightly, with the USD/BRL at R$5.5619, up 0.07%, reflecting caution amid renewed U.S.-Brazil trade friction.
The U.S. announced a formal probe into Brazilian commercial practices, raising risks of new tariffs, while Brazil signaled readiness to respond, adding to market volatility.
U.S. Markets Yesterday
U.S. stocks experienced a volatile session on July 16, 2025, after President Donald Trump’s comments about potentially firing Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. The S&P 500 rose 0.3% to 6,263.70, recovering from an earlier drop.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.5% to 44,254.78, while the Nasdaq composite rose 0.3% to 20,730.49. The Russell 2000 index of smaller companies climbed 1% to 2,226.98.
Trump’s remarks introduced uncertainty, though he noted firing Powell was unlikely, balancing hopes for lower rates with concerns about Fed independence. This volatility influenced global risk sentiment, impacting Brazilian markets.
Commodities
Brazilian Real
The Brazilian real edged up slightly on July 16, 2025, with the USD/BRL at R$5.5619, up 0.07%, reflecting caution amid U.S. trade probes and tariff risks. Today’s IGP-10 Inflation Index, U.S. retail sales, and Japan’s CPI data will shape currency expectations.
Oil Prices
Oil prices remained under pressure on July 16, 2025, with Brent crude at $68.72, up 0.03%, amid trade tensions and weak global demand signals.
This challenges Petrobras’ revenues, though Brazil’s robust oil production provides a buffer. Today’s U.S. Retail Sales and Natural Gas Storage data will provide critical demand signals for Brazil’s energy sector.
Gold Prices
Gold prices held steady on July 16, 2025, at $3,354.15, up 0.52%, supported by a stabilizing dollar and trade uncertainties, benefiting Brazil’s mining sector, including Vale. Today’s U.S. Retail Sales and Japan’s CPI data will influence safe-haven flows.
Silver Prices
Silver prices remained firm on July 16, 2025, trading above $37 per ounce, supported by supply tightness and steady technical signals, aiding Brazil’s mining exports. Today’s U.S. Retail Sales and Japan’s CPI data will guide industrial and safe-haven demand trends.
Copper Prices
Copper prices held near peaks on July 16, 2025, supported by supply constraints and Chinese demand, bolstering Vale’s revenues despite tariff risks. Today’s U.S. Retail Sales and Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index will clarify industrial demand trends.
Cryptocurrencies
Bitcoin stalled on July 16, 2025, after recent highs, while altcoins rallied, impacting Brazil’s fintech sector, including Mercado Livre and XP Inc. Today’s U.S. Retail Sales and FOMC speeches will influence crypto sentiment.
Iron Ore Prices
Iron ore prices rose 1.05% on July 16, 2025, to 773 yuan, driven by Chinese demand and supply concerns, supporting Vale’s outlook despite tariff risks. Today’s U.S. Retail Sales and Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index will signal commodity demand trends.
Companies and Market
Industry Outlook
Brazil’s commodity-driven economy faces significant challenges from the 15% Selic rate, which raises borrowing costs for exporters and domestic firms, particularly in retail and construction.
The R$104 billion fiscal deficit and 76.2% debt-to-GDP ratio, combined with U.S. 50% tariffs on Brazilian goods, threaten export revenues and economic stability.
Today’s IGP-10 Inflation Index, U.S. Retail Sales, and Japan’s CPI data will shape export demand and market sentiment for Brazil’s key industries, including mining, energy, and agriculture.
Camil’s Struggles
Camil, a major Brazilian food company, reported declining sales and prices in 2025 for core products like rice and beans, reflecting challenges in the food processing sector amid high interest rates and weak domestic demand.
GPA’s Resilience
GPA surged over 10% on July 16, 2025, as the Diniz family increased its stake, signaling confidence in Brazil’s retail sector despite economic headwinds. This move highlights GPA’s strategic repositioning in the competitive supermarket landscape.
Housing Sector Challenges
Helbor and Trisul reported sales drops in São Paulo’s property market, reflecting a new reality for Brazil’s real estate sector. High interest rates and tariff-related uncertainties continue to pressure developers, dampening investor sentiment.
Explanation of EST
Eastern Standard Time (EST) is the time zone used in the eastern United States, including New York, Washington, D.C., and Miami, set at UTC-5, five hours behind Coordinated Universal Time (UTC).
EST is applied here for consistency, as requested, and aligns with U.S. financial market schedules, influencing global trading.
More: Brazil news in English, every day from The Rio Times.
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Brazil Morning Call — Live Board
+8.53%
208,506.76
+8.53%
64,531.68
+1.10%
11,052.82
+1.25%
2,841,487
+2.67%
2,538.58
+0.94%
59,751.67
+0.18%
| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IBOV | 208,506.76 | +8.53% | +21.85% | 192,114.55 | 168,310 | 167,142 | — |
| USD/BRL | 5.16 | +0.01% | -5.13% | 5.16 | 5.18 | 5.14 | — |
| EUR/BRL | 5.95 | +1.01% | -5.83% | 5.89 | 5.98 | 5.94 | — |
| SELIC | 14.00% | — | — | — | — | — | |
| BRENT | 88.88 | -0.03% | +34.42% | 88.91 | 90.07 | 88.12 | 29,713 |
| WTI | 83.11 | -0.11% | +31.57% | 83.20 | 84.35 | 82.40 | 166,848 |
| IRON ORE | 161.91 | — | +58.10% | 161.91 | 161.91 | 1 | |
| GOLD | 4,461 | +1.78% | +33.20% | 4,383 | 4,503 | 4,421 | 139,824 |
| SILVER | 65.59 | +1.26% | +73.05% | 64.77 | 66.98 | 64.81 | 46,406 |
| LITHIUM | 75.20 | +1.47% | +62.95% | 74.11 | 75.80 | 75.08 | 89,275 |
| SOY | 1,184 | +3.20% | +17.05% | 1,148 | 1,199 | 1,168 | 163,179 |
| CORN | 480.50 | +10.02% | +29.34% | 436.75 | 480.75 | 459.50 | 341,248 |
| WHEAT | 655.00 | +3.93% | +29.70% | 630.25 | 657.75 | 631.50 | 128,793 |
| COFFEE | 317.25 | -5.51% | +0.67% | 335.75 | 321.20 | 313.55 | 21,747 |
| SUGAR | 16.43 | -1.79% | -3.01% | 16.73 | 17.11 | 16.22 | 171,992 |
| ORANGE JUICE | 138.55 | -0.47% | -45.38% | 139.20 | 141.05 | 137.50 | 703 |
| COTTON | 85.03 | +2.33% | +26.78% | 83.09 | 82.90 | 81.96 | 16,546 |
| BEEF | 223.60 | -3.93% | -5.18% | 232.75 | 226.40 | 223.00 | 16,126 |
| CATTLE | 339.10 | -3.16% | -1.82% | 350.17 | 345.50 | 338.60 | 10,164 |
| COCOA | 5,719 | +3.18% | -34.96% | 5,543 | 5,779 | 5,574 | 26,773 |
| PETR4 | 41.64 | -0.05% | +35.19% | 41.66 | 41.97 | 41.15 | 41,499,400 |
| VALE3 | 72.97 | +0.83% | +30.75% | 72.37 | 73.54 | 72.66 | 17,658,000 |
| SUZB3 | 41.33 | +2.35% | -23.55% | 40.38 | 41.48 | 40.35 | 3,914,900 |
| KLABIN | 17.69 | +0.80% | -2.95% | 17.55 | 17.74 | 17.48 | 2,057,400 |
| SLCE3 | 13.34 | +0.30% | -12.25% | 13.30 | 13.42 | 13.20 | 1,454,200 |
| ABEV3 | 14.89 | -0.80% | +21.91% | 15.01 | 15.07 | 14.81 | 16,453,100 |
| ITUB4 | 38.60 | -1.03% | +4.57% | 39.00 | 39.34 | 38.39 | 29,487,800 |
| BBDC4 | 16.85 | +0.36% | +3.50% | 16.79 | 16.90 | 16.67 | 19,416,900 |
| BBAS3 | 19.37 | +0.47% | +0.73% | 19.28 | 19.44 | 19.16 | 11,069,200 |
| B3SA3 | 14.26 | -0.21% | +12.73% | 14.29 | 14.47 | 14.11 | 33,037,800 |
| WEGE3 | 47.59 | +0.49% | +29.99% | 47.36 | 48.08 | 47.36 | 3,364,600 |
| PRIO3 | 59.14 | -0.19% | +50.67% | 59.25 | 59.81 | 58.74 | 3,325,600 |
| RENT3 | 34.68 | -0.09% | +0.84% | 34.71 | 34.96 | 34.35 | 7,979,100 |
| AZZA3 | 15.89 | -2.63% | -53.76% | 16.32 | 16.42 | 15.82 | 1,330,300 |
| CSNA3 | 4.30 | +0.47% | -42.65% | 4.28 | 4.41 | 4.26 | 10,076,100 |
| GGBR4 | 24.69 | +2.19% | +51.38% | 24.16 | 24.85 | 24.18 | 7,047,600 |
| ENEV3 | 24.21 | -1.38% | +70.49% | 24.55 | 24.64 | 23.99 | 9,297,000 |
| LREN3 | 11.87 | -1.33% | -28.65% | 12.03 | 12.17 | 11.83 | 9,683,300 |
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief
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