Brazil’s Financial Morning Call for January 21, 2025
As Brazil’s financial markets commence trading this Tuesday, January 21, 2025, today’s economic agenda is rich with events internationally that could sway market dynamics, while the domestic agenda remains quiet.
Key events include the release of Mexico’s Retail Sales at 9:00 AM, providing insights into consumer spending which could influence regional economic sentiment. From Canada, core CPI and general CPI data will be released at 8:30 AM, offering a snapshot of inflation trends that might affect global investment patterns.
In Europe, the UK will unveil employment and unemployment figures early in the morning, while Germany and the Eurozone will release the ZEW Economic Sentiment indices, potentially shaping expectations about economic health in the region.
Meanwhile, the ongoing Eurogroup Meetings and the World Economic Forum Annual Meetings in Switzerland could further influence global fiscal and monetary policies. New Zealand’s end-of-day CPI release will round out the international calendar, giving a view on inflation in the Asia-Pacific region.
These events are critical as they could drive shifts in investment flows, commodity prices, and monetary policy expectations both in Brazil and globally.
Economic Agenda for January 21, 2025
Brazil and Latin America
Mexico
- 09:00 AM – Retail Sales: This data offers insights into consumer behavior, signaling domestic demand strength.
The Americas
Canada
- 8:30 AM – CPI (MoM) (YoY) (Dec): These inflation metrics are vital for understanding price stability and potential policy adjustments.
Europe
United Kingdom (GBP)
- 2:00 AM – Average Earnings Index +Bonus (Nov): Indicates wage growth, affecting consumer spending power.
- 2:00 AM – Claimant Count Change (Dec): Reflects job market health, with implications for economic stability.
- 2:00 AM – Employment Change 3M/3M (MoM) (Nov): Shows short-term employment trends.
- 2:00 AM – Unemployment Rate (Nov): A key indicator for labor market health.
Eurozone (EUR)
- 5:00 AM – German ZEW Current Conditions (Jan): Measures current business sentiment in Germany.
- 5:00 AM – German ZEW Economic Sentiment (Jan): Gauges future economic expectations.
- 5:00 AM – Eurogroup Meetings: Discussions here can set the tone for European economic policy.
- 5:00 AM – ZEW Economic Sentiment (Jan): Provides a broader view of Eurozone economic outlook.
Switzerland (CHF)
World Economic Forum Annual Meetings: Discussions might influence global economic strategies.
Rest of the World
New Zealand (NZD)
- 4:45 PM – CPI (QoQ) (Q4): Quarterly inflation data, crucial for policy-making.
- 4:45 PM – CPI (YoY) (Q4): Year-over-year inflation, impacting investment and currency valuation.
Brazil’s Markets Yesterday
The Ibovespa index advanced, closing up 0.41% at 122,855.15 points, buoyed by Trump’s inauguration without new tariff announcements. The dollar fell to R$ 6.0421, a decrease of 0.39%, following the Central Bank’s intervention with a $2 billion injection to stabilize the currency.
President Lula da Silva’s focus on the 2026 election and setting targets for his ministers also impacted market sentiment. The absence of expected U.S. tariff policies relieved pressure on Brazil’s interest rates, as such policies could have led to inflation and higher U.S. rates, thus affecting Brazil’s economic environment.
U.S. Markets Yesterday
The U.S. markets were closed for Martin Luther King Jr. Day on January 20, 2025, resuming trading today.
Commodity Markets
Oil Prices
Oil prices saw a dip as Middle East tensions eased, with a 3% decline reported, reflecting a more stable geopolitical outlook and adjusting supply expectations.
Gold Prices
Gold prices dropped as investors anticipated the economic policies of the newly inaugurated Trump administration, potentially affecting the demand for safe-haven assets.
Bitcoin Price
Bitcoin experienced an inaugural plunge; Trump’s silence on cryptocurrency in his speech led to a significant market correction, highlighting the crypto market’s sensitivity to political developments.
Corporate and Market Highlights
Brazil’s 2025 Inflation Forecast: The inflation forecast for 2025 has risen to 5.08%, exceeding the target, which might influence monetary policy decisions.
Nubank’s Strategic Move: Nubank plans to shift its domicile from the Cayman Islands to London, eyeing a potential entry into the U.S. market, indicating growth ambitions.
Natura&Co’s Profitability Drive: Natura&Co is charting a new course for profitability, focusing on operational efficiency and strategic market positioning.
Raizen Stock Decline: Raizen’s stock dropped by 5.88% due to drought and fires impacting sugar production, reflecting the vulnerability of commodities to environmental factors.
Itau Unibanco’s Rate Forecast: Itau Unibanco has raised its Selic rate forecast to 15.75% for 2025, signaling expectations of tighter monetary policy.
Suzano’s Bid: Brazil’s Suzano leads the pack in bidding for Kimberly-Clark’s $4 billion tissue business, showcasing aggressive expansion in the global market.
Batista Brothers’ Potential Acquisition: The Batista brothers are eyeing a stake in the Petropolis Group, which could shake up Brazil’s beer market.
Brasil Tecpar’s Expansion: Brasil Tecpar receives a $300 million boost for rapid growth in fiber optics, indicating significant investment in infrastructure.
Private Equity in Brazil: Brazil’s private equity and venture capital sectors have invested $33 billion since 2020, highlighting a vibrant investment scene.
Vibra Energia’s Capital Boost: Vibra Energia boosts its subsidiary’s capital by R$1.5 billion, aiming for growth in the energy sector.
Randon’s Expansion: Randon expands its North American footprint through a strategic acquisition of AXN, signaling international growth in the automotive sector.
Outlook
The trading session today will particularly watch Mexico’s retail sales for signs of regional consumer health. The international economic indicators, especially from Canada and Europe, will be crucial in setting the tone for global market sentiment, potentially influencing Brazilian asset valuations, currency movements, and investor behavior.
Live Market IntelligenceBrazil Morning Call — Live Board
Rio Times · Live Market Intelligence
Brazil Morning Call — Live Board
-1.52%
174,041.95
-1.52%
66,383.68
+0.21%
10,950.74
+0.31%
3,283,854
-1.07%
2,274.53
-0.38%
58,287.01
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| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IBOV | 174,041.95 | -1.52% | +30.07% | 176,723.62 | 176,720 | 174,042 | — |
| USD/BRL | 5.08 | -0.24% | -8.00% | 5.09 | 5.08 | 5.08 | — |
| EUR/BRL | 5.78 | +0.08% | -10.91% | 5.78 | 5.80 | 5.75 | — |
| SELIC | 14.25% | — | — | — | — | — | |
| BRENT | 96.78 | -3.88% | +41.41% | 100.69 | 101.16 | 95.14 | 29,916 |
| WTI | 89.31 | -3.12% | +37.06% | 92.19 | 92.83 | 87.68 | 336,373 |
| IRON ORE | 161.91 | — | +64.29% | 161.91 | 161.91 | 1 | |
| GOLD | 4,071 | +0.60% | +22.10% | 4,047 | 4,085 | 4,024 | 112,402 |
| SILVER | 58.91 | +1.92% | +54.34% | 57.80 | 59.29 | 57.36 | 26,053 |
| LITHIUM | 67.81 | -1.75% | +51.94% | 69.02 | 68.69 | 67.73 | 177,410 |
| SOY | 1,254 | +1.29% | +25.51% | 1,238 | 1,257 | 1,238 | 166,916 |
| CORN | 487.25 | +5.01% | +21.96% | 464.00 | 492.00 | 479.25 | 257,469 |
| WHEAT | 678.00 | -2.62% | +25.96% | 696.25 | 711.25 | 659.50 | 117,726 |
| COFFEE | 298.25 | -3.60% | +0.24% | 309.40 | 318.55 | 306.40 | 14,168 |
| SUGAR | 14.76 | +0.48% | -9.39% | 14.69 | 14.79 | 14.54 | 45,966 |
| ORANGE JUICE | 142.65 | -2.83% | -55.75% | 146.80 | 146.15 | 141.50 | 345 |
| COTTON | 79.89 | +0.06% | +19.22% | 79.84 | 80.76 | 78.28 | 9,674 |
| BEEF | 222.50 | -1.29% | -1.76% | 225.40 | 224.13 | 220.78 | 19,283 |
| CATTLE | 341.45 | -0.68% | +3.04% | 343.77 | 345.48 | 337.25 | 9,940 |
| COCOA | 5,467 | +3.13% | -34.36% | 5,301 | 5,438 | 5,227 | 17,604 |
| PETR4 | 42.21 | -1.72% | +32.15% | 42.95 | 42.91 | 42.15 | 29,108,700 |
| VALE3 | 75.24 | -0.58% | +33.10% | 75.68 | 75.53 | 74.84 | 8,619,900 |
| SUZB3 | 41.84 | -1.39% | -18.76% | 42.43 | 42.25 | 41.63 | 3,639,400 |
| KLABIN | 17.52 | -0.79% | -5.27% | 17.66 | 17.59 | 17.32 | 3,680,600 |
| SLCE3 | 13.64 | -0.94% | -14.51% | 13.77 | 13.80 | 13.63 | 1,432,500 |
| ABEV3 | 15.64 | -1.76% | +15.85% | 15.92 | 15.90 | 15.61 | 15,223,800 |
| ITUB4 | 42.10 | -1.08% | +23.68% | 42.56 | 42.45 | 42.04 | 10,431,800 |
| BBDC4 | 18.48 | -1.28% | +17.86% | 18.72 | 18.64 | 18.42 | 13,961,200 |
| BBAS3 | 20.35 | -2.77% | +1.40% | 20.93 | 20.82 | 20.35 | 14,376,600 |
| B3SA3 | 15.44 | -1.34% | +17.68% | 15.65 | 15.67 | 15.43 | 35,146,900 |
| WEGE3 | 45.99 | +0.70% | +26.94% | 45.67 | 46.19 | 44.94 | 7,718,600 |
| PRIO3 | 58.82 | -2.84% | +39.05% | 60.54 | 60.27 | 58.46 | 5,375,200 |
| RENT3 | 36.89 | -0.67% | +2.56% | 37.14 | 37.38 | 36.59 | 4,733,700 |
| AZZA3 | 16.65 | -2.35% | -54.40% | 17.05 | 17.17 | 16.65 | 1,511,900 |
| CSNA3 | 5.36 | +1.13% | -37.31% | 5.30 | 5.45 | 5.24 | 8,140,000 |
| GGBR4 | 24.26 | +0.83% | +40.39% | 24.06 | 24.45 | 23.82 | 5,543,500 |
| ENEV3 | 24.90 | -3.11% | +79.65% | 25.70 | 25.58 | 24.87 | 4,494,900 |
| LREN3 | 13.27 | -0.75% | -22.31% | 13.37 | 13.49 | 13.18 | 7,803,700 |
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