Brazil’s Financial Morning Call for February 21, 2025
Brazilian financial markets are poised for a dynamic trading session today, influenced by a modest domestic economic calendar and a flurry of international events that could steer global sentiment and, consequently, Brazil’s markets.
Today’s economic agenda in Brazil features the release of Federal Revenue data at 10:30 AM CET (9:30 AM local time), offering insight into tax collection trends and fiscal health.
This indicator matters because it reflects the government’s capacity to fund public spending amid ongoing economic pressures, potentially impacting investor confidence in Brazil’s fiscal stability and the Brazilian real.
With global trade uncertainties—particularly U.S. tariff threats—and commodity price fluctuations in focus, this data could signal whether Brazil’s domestic revenue base can weather external headwinds.
This domestic focus comes as Brazil digests yesterday’s market performance, where the Ibovespa edged up despite mixed corporate earnings and global jitters. Globally, a dense lineup of economic events adds layers of complexity.
In the UK, Retail Sales at 4:00 AM CET and PMI data (Manufacturing, Composite, and Services) at 6:30 AM CET will shed light on consumer spending and business activity, influencing risk appetite and commodity demand—key for Brazil’s export-driven economy.
Germany’s Manufacturing and Services PMI at 5:30 AM CET, alongside Eurozone PMI releases at 6:00 AM CET, could sway European market sentiment, affecting Brazil’s trade partners.
In the U.S., Manufacturing, Composite, and Services PMI at 11:45 AM CET will provide a snapshot of economic momentum, critical for gauging the Federal Reserve’s policy direction and its ripple effects on the U.S. dollar and emerging markets like Brazil.
Economic Agenda for February 21, 2025
Brazil
- 10:30 AM – Federal Revenue
United Kingdom
- 04:00 AM – Retail Sales
- 06:30 AM – Manufacturing PMI
- 06:30 AM – Composite PMI
- 06:30 AM – Services PMI
Germany
- 05:30 AM – Manufacturing PMI
- 05:30 AM – Services PMI
Eurozone
- 06:00 AM – Manufacturing PMI
- 06:00 AM – Composite PMI
- 06:00 AM – Services PMI
United States
- 11:45 AM – Manufacturing PMI
- 11:45 AM – Composite PMI
- 11:45 AM – Services PMI
Brazil’s Markets on Thursday
The Ibovespa, Brazil’s benchmark stock index, closed at 127,606.49 points on February 20, 2025, rising 0.23% after a volatile session. The market balanced mixed corporate earnings with global trade uncertainties, as U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff plans loomed over investor sentiment.
Currency Market
The Brazilian real strengthened against the U.S. dollar on February 20, 2025, amid global trade uncertainty and a commodities surge. While exact closing figures await final reports, the real’s gains align with its recent trend of resilience, supported by commodity price strength despite U.S. tariff threats.
U.S. Markets on Thursday
Wall Street retreated from its record after a sharp slide for Walmart weighed on U.S. stock indexes. The S&P 500 fell 0.4% Thursday after setting all-time highs in each of the last two days.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 1%, and the Nasdaq composite slipped 0.5%. Walmart gave a forecast for upcoming profit that fell short of analysts’ expectations, which helped pull down stocks across the retail industry.
Treasury yields eased a bit in the bond market following a couple weaker-than-expected reports on the U.S. economy. Stock indexes fell across much of Europe and Asia.
Commodity Markets
Oil Prices
A drone attack on the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) in southern Russia has disrupted global oil flows, reducing Kazakhstan’s exports by 30-40%.
Gold Prices
Gold hit record highs on February 20, 2025, driven by geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainty, with spot prices reflecting a robust climb as a safe-haven asset.
Crypto Prices
Cryptocurrencies displayed diverging trends on February 20, 2025, with altcoins rallying while Bitcoin faced ETF outflows, signaling market-specific volatility.
Companies and Markets
Vale (VALE3) lifted Brazil’s market on February 20, 2025, with a 3.68% share rise despite a $694 million Q4 2024 loss, thanks to dividends and buybacks.
Banco do Brasil (BBAS3) dropped 2.98% after a conservative 2025 outlook overshadowed its R$9.6 billion Q4 earnings.
Gerdau reassessed a $500 million Mexico steel venture due to Trump tariffs, reflecting broader trade concerns.
Natura offloaded Avon International, marking a strategic shift. Telefonica exited Latin America markets to cut debt, impacting regional dynamics.
Outlook
Today’s market trajectory hinges on global PMI releases and Brazil’s Federal Revenue data, given the light domestic calendar. The Ibovespa’s modest gain yesterday suggests cautious optimism, but U.S. tariff risks, commodity price movements, and corporate earnings reactions could test this stability. External factors, including European and U.S. economic signals, alongside Brazil’s commodity and trade exposure, will shape the day’s financial landscape.
More: Brazil news in English, every day from The Rio Times.
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Brazil Morning Call — Live Board
+1.37%
186,340.46
+1.37%
64,951.10
-0.24%
10,969.49
-0.78%
2,819,323
+1.32%
2,549.16
-0.38%
60,410.88
-0.96%
| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IBOV | 186,340.46 | +1.37% | +21.85% | 183,827.59 | 168,310 | 167,142 | — |
| USD/BRL | 5.16 | +0.01% | -5.13% | 5.16 | 5.18 | 5.14 | — |
| EUR/BRL | 5.95 | +1.01% | -5.83% | 5.89 | 5.98 | 5.94 | — |
| SELIC | 14.00% | — | — | — | — | — | |
| BRENT | 88.88 | -0.03% | +34.42% | 88.91 | 90.07 | 88.12 | 29,713 |
| WTI | 83.11 | -0.11% | +31.57% | 83.20 | 84.35 | 82.40 | 166,848 |
| IRON ORE | 161.91 | — | +58.10% | 161.91 | 161.91 | 1 | |
| GOLD | 4,461 | +1.78% | +33.20% | 4,383 | 4,503 | 4,421 | 139,824 |
| SILVER | 65.59 | +1.26% | +73.05% | 64.77 | 66.98 | 64.81 | 46,406 |
| LITHIUM | 75.20 | +1.47% | +62.95% | 74.11 | 75.80 | 75.08 | 89,275 |
| SOY | 1,184 | +3.20% | +17.05% | 1,148 | 1,199 | 1,168 | 163,179 |
| CORN | 480.50 | +10.02% | +29.34% | 436.75 | 480.75 | 459.50 | 341,248 |
| WHEAT | 655.00 | +3.93% | +29.70% | 630.25 | 657.75 | 631.50 | 128,793 |
| COFFEE | 317.25 | -5.51% | +0.67% | 335.75 | 321.20 | 313.55 | 21,747 |
| SUGAR | 16.43 | -1.79% | -3.01% | 16.73 | 17.11 | 16.22 | 171,992 |
| ORANGE JUICE | 138.55 | -0.47% | -45.38% | 139.20 | 141.05 | 137.50 | 703 |
| COTTON | 85.03 | +2.33% | +26.78% | 83.09 | 82.90 | 81.96 | 16,546 |
| BEEF | 223.60 | -3.93% | -5.18% | 232.75 | 226.40 | 223.00 | 16,126 |
| CATTLE | 339.10 | -3.16% | -1.82% | 350.17 | 345.50 | 338.60 | 10,164 |
| COCOA | 5,719 | +3.18% | -34.96% | 5,543 | 5,779 | 5,574 | 26,773 |
| PETR4 | 41.64 | -0.05% | +35.19% | 41.66 | 41.97 | 41.15 | 41,499,400 |
| VALE3 | 72.97 | +0.83% | +30.75% | 72.37 | 73.54 | 72.66 | 17,658,000 |
| SUZB3 | 41.33 | +2.35% | -23.55% | 40.38 | 41.48 | 40.35 | 3,914,900 |
| KLABIN | 17.69 | +0.80% | -2.95% | 17.55 | 17.74 | 17.48 | 2,057,400 |
| SLCE3 | 13.34 | +0.30% | -12.25% | 13.30 | 13.42 | 13.20 | 1,454,200 |
| ABEV3 | 14.89 | -0.80% | +21.91% | 15.01 | 15.07 | 14.81 | 16,453,100 |
| ITUB4 | 38.60 | -1.03% | +4.57% | 39.00 | 39.34 | 38.39 | 29,487,800 |
| BBDC4 | 16.85 | +0.36% | +3.50% | 16.79 | 16.90 | 16.67 | 19,416,900 |
| BBAS3 | 19.37 | +0.47% | +0.73% | 19.28 | 19.44 | 19.16 | 11,069,200 |
| B3SA3 | 14.26 | -0.21% | +12.73% | 14.29 | 14.47 | 14.11 | 33,037,800 |
| WEGE3 | 47.59 | +0.49% | +29.99% | 47.36 | 48.08 | 47.36 | 3,364,600 |
| PRIO3 | 59.14 | -0.19% | +50.67% | 59.25 | 59.81 | 58.74 | 3,325,600 |
| RENT3 | 34.68 | -0.09% | +0.84% | 34.71 | 34.96 | 34.35 | 7,979,100 |
| AZZA3 | 15.89 | -2.63% | -53.76% | 16.32 | 16.42 | 15.82 | 1,330,300 |
| CSNA3 | 4.30 | +0.47% | -42.65% | 4.28 | 4.41 | 4.26 | 10,076,100 |
| GGBR4 | 24.69 | +2.19% | +51.38% | 24.16 | 24.85 | 24.18 | 7,047,600 |
| ENEV3 | 24.21 | -1.38% | +70.49% | 24.55 | 24.64 | 23.99 | 9,297,000 |
| LREN3 | 11.87 | -1.33% | -28.65% | 12.03 | 12.17 | 11.83 | 9,683,300 |
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