Brazil’s Financial Morning Call for February 12, 2025
Brazilian financial markets are gearing up for an eventful day with a series of economic indicators and global events set to influence market dynamics, investor sentiment, and policy directions.
Today’s focus will be on Brazil’s service sector growth and foreign exchange flow, which are critical for gauging domestic economic health. On the international stage, the U.S. inflation data release is poised to be a major influencer, potentially swaying expectations around monetary policy adjustments.
This data, coupled with Federal Reserve Chair Powell’s testimony, could have broad implications for emerging markets like Brazil, affecting currency valuation, interest rates, and commodity prices.
Furthermore, the ongoing geopolitical and economic uncertainties add layers of complexity to the market’s reaction, making today’s developments particularly noteworthy for investors and policymakers alike.
Economic Agenda for February 12, 2025
Brazil
09:00 AM – Service Sector Growth: This indicator will provide insights into the health of Brazil’s service industry, which is crucial for understanding domestic economic activity and consumer confidence.
02:30 PM – Foreign Exchange Flow: This data reflects the movement of foreign currency in and out of Brazil, impacting the Brazilian Real’s valuation and providing a snapshot of investor trust in the Brazilian economy.
United States
08:30 AM – Core CPI (MoM) (Jan): Measures the change in consumer prices excluding food and energy, a key factor for the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decisions.
08:30 AM – Core CPI (YoY) (Jan): The annual change in core consumer prices, offering a longer-term view of inflation trends.
08:30 AM – CPI (MoM) (Jan): The monthly change in consumer prices, directly affecting economic policy and living costs.
08:30 AM – CPI (YoY) (Jan): Year-over-year consumer price changes, critical for understanding inflation’s trajectory.
10:00 AM – Fed Chair Powell Testifies: His testimony could sway expectations on U.S. monetary policy, influencing global markets including Brazil’s.
10:30 AM – CPI: Additional consumer price data, reinforcing the morning’s releases.
10:30 AM – Crude Oil Inventories: Impacts oil prices, relevant for Brazil’s oil sector.
10:30 AM – Cushing Crude Oil Inventories: Specifically affects oil pricing due to the strategic importance of Cushing storage.
12:00 PM – FOMC Member Bostic Speaks: His comments could further clarify or adjust market expectations regarding U.S. monetary policy.
01:00 PM – 10-Year Note Auction: Influences U.S. Treasury yields, potentially affecting capital flows into or out of emerging markets like Brazil.
02:00 PM – Federal Budget Balance (Jan): Indicates U.S. fiscal health, influencing market sentiment.
04:05 PM – Fed Waller Speaks: Another opportunity for market insights on U.S. monetary policy.
Europe
05:00 AM – ECB’s Elderson Speaks (EUR): Could impact Euro valuations, affecting Brazilian trade.
06:00 AM – German Buba Mauderer Speaks (EUR): German economic policy comments might influence broader Eurozone markets.
12:00 PM – German Buba President Nagel Speaks (EUR): Key for understanding Germany’s economic stance, which has repercussions for European and global markets.
07:01 PM – RICS House Price Balance (Jan) (GBP): Though less direct, could signal UK housing market trends, impacting global investment decisions.
Rest of the World
05:00 AM – New Loans (Jan) (CNY): Influences commodity markets where Brazil holds significant stakes.
05:30 AM – CPI (YoY) (Jan) (INR): Indian inflation could affect global commodity prices, particularly relevant for Brazil’s exports.
04:45 PM – Electronic Card Retail Sales (MoM) (Jan) (NZD): Reflects consumer spending in New Zealand, indirectly influencing commodity markets.
07:30 PM – Inflation Expectations (QoQ) (Q1) (NZD): Provides a forward-looking view on inflation, potentially affecting commodity markets.
Brazil’s Markets Yesterday
The Ibovespa index rose to 126,521.66 points, up by 0.76%, driven by robust commodity performance and a significant boost from Carrefour Brasil shares, which surged over 15% due to a privatization proposal by its parent company. The U.S. dollar weakened against the Real, closing at R$5.7678, despite U.S. tariffs and inflation concerns.
U.S. Markets Yesterday
U.S. markets ended with mixed results after President Trump’s tariff announcement and Fed hints at stable interest rates. The S&P 500 was virtually unchanged, while the Dow Jones saw a slight increase, and Nasdaq experienced a dip.
Commodity Markets
Oil Prices
Oil prices surged as geopolitical tensions continued to strain global supply chains, benefiting Petrobras and other energy players in Brazil.
Gold Prices
Gold remained steady amid ongoing geopolitical uncertainties and inflation concerns, maintaining its appeal as a safe-haven asset.
Crypto Prices
Bitcoin dipped below $95,000 as volatility continued to dominate crypto markets.
Companies and Markets
Carrefour Brasil: Shares soared with news of potential privatization by Carrefour S.A., significantly impacting the Ibovespa. Read more…
TIM Brazil: Reported a record-breaking financial performance, surpassing analyst expectations. Read more…
Cyrela Brazil Realty: Achieved a 106% profit growth in Q4 2024, showcasing resilience in real estate despite economic challenges. Read more…
Vivara: Shares fell due to concerns over governance related to leadership changes. Read more…
Banco ABC Brasil: Demonstrated steady growth and resilience in 2024.
Bombril: Facing a judicial recovery process to manage a $380 million debt crisis. Read more…
Energy Subsidy: While easing inflation, underlying economic strains continue in Brazil. Read more…
Outlook
The day’s economic indicators, especially from the U.S., will play a crucial role in shaping market sentiment. The focus on inflation data could recalibrate expectations for monetary policy, impacting currency strength, investment decisions, and commodity prices.
Brazil’s internal economic indicators will also be pivotal in understanding local market health and investor confidence amidst global economic shifts.
More: Brazil news in English, every day from The Rio Times.
Live Market IntelligenceBrazil Morning Call — Live Board
Rio Times · Live Market Intelligence
Brazil Morning Call — Live Board
+0.46%
183,827.59
+0.46%
65,071.30
+0.20%
11,055.91
-0.73%
2,782,561
-0.59%
2,558.92
-0.79%
60,220.45
+0.32%
| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IBOV | 183,827.59 | +0.46% | +21.85% | 182,991.13 | 168,310 | 167,142 | — |
| USD/BRL | 5.16 | +0.01% | -5.13% | 5.16 | 5.18 | 5.14 | — |
| EUR/BRL | 5.95 | +1.01% | -5.83% | 5.89 | 5.98 | 5.94 | — |
| SELIC | 14.00% | — | — | — | — | — | |
| BRENT | 88.88 | -0.03% | +34.42% | 88.91 | 90.07 | 88.12 | 29,713 |
| WTI | 83.11 | -0.11% | +31.57% | 83.20 | 84.35 | 82.40 | 166,848 |
| IRON ORE | 161.91 | — | +58.10% | 161.91 | 161.91 | 1 | |
| GOLD | 4,461 | +1.78% | +33.20% | 4,383 | 4,503 | 4,421 | 139,824 |
| SILVER | 65.59 | +1.26% | +73.05% | 64.77 | 66.98 | 64.81 | 46,406 |
| LITHIUM | 75.20 | +1.47% | +62.95% | 74.11 | 75.80 | 75.08 | 89,275 |
| SOY | 1,184 | +3.20% | +17.05% | 1,148 | 1,199 | 1,168 | 163,179 |
| CORN | 480.50 | +10.02% | +29.34% | 436.75 | 480.75 | 459.50 | 341,248 |
| WHEAT | 655.00 | +3.93% | +29.70% | 630.25 | 657.75 | 631.50 | 128,793 |
| COFFEE | 317.25 | -5.51% | +0.67% | 335.75 | 321.20 | 313.55 | 21,747 |
| SUGAR | 16.43 | -1.79% | -3.01% | 16.73 | 17.11 | 16.22 | 171,992 |
| ORANGE JUICE | 138.55 | -0.47% | -45.38% | 139.20 | 141.05 | 137.50 | 703 |
| COTTON | 85.03 | +2.33% | +26.78% | 83.09 | 82.90 | 81.96 | 16,546 |
| BEEF | 223.60 | -3.93% | -5.18% | 232.75 | 226.40 | 223.00 | 16,126 |
| CATTLE | 339.10 | -3.16% | -1.82% | 350.17 | 345.50 | 338.60 | 10,164 |
| COCOA | 5,719 | +3.18% | -34.96% | 5,543 | 5,779 | 5,574 | 26,773 |
| PETR4 | 41.64 | -0.05% | +35.19% | 41.66 | 41.97 | 41.15 | 41,499,400 |
| VALE3 | 72.97 | +0.83% | +30.75% | 72.37 | 73.54 | 72.66 | 17,658,000 |
| SUZB3 | 41.33 | +2.35% | -23.55% | 40.38 | 41.48 | 40.35 | 3,914,900 |
| KLABIN | 17.69 | +0.80% | -2.95% | 17.55 | 17.74 | 17.48 | 2,057,400 |
| SLCE3 | 13.34 | +0.30% | -12.25% | 13.30 | 13.42 | 13.20 | 1,454,200 |
| ABEV3 | 14.89 | -0.80% | +21.91% | 15.01 | 15.07 | 14.81 | 16,453,100 |
| ITUB4 | 38.60 | -1.03% | +4.57% | 39.00 | 39.34 | 38.39 | 29,487,800 |
| BBDC4 | 16.85 | +0.36% | +3.50% | 16.79 | 16.90 | 16.67 | 19,416,900 |
| BBAS3 | 19.37 | +0.47% | +0.73% | 19.28 | 19.44 | 19.16 | 11,069,200 |
| B3SA3 | 14.26 | -0.21% | +12.73% | 14.29 | 14.47 | 14.11 | 33,037,800 |
| WEGE3 | 47.59 | +0.49% | +29.99% | 47.36 | 48.08 | 47.36 | 3,364,600 |
| PRIO3 | 59.14 | -0.19% | +50.67% | 59.25 | 59.81 | 58.74 | 3,325,600 |
| RENT3 | 34.68 | -0.09% | +0.84% | 34.71 | 34.96 | 34.35 | 7,979,100 |
| AZZA3 | 15.89 | -2.63% | -53.76% | 16.32 | 16.42 | 15.82 | 1,330,300 |
| CSNA3 | 4.30 | +0.47% | -42.65% | 4.28 | 4.41 | 4.26 | 10,076,100 |
| GGBR4 | 24.69 | +2.19% | +51.38% | 24.16 | 24.85 | 24.18 | 7,047,600 |
| ENEV3 | 24.21 | -1.38% | +70.49% | 24.55 | 24.64 | 23.99 | 9,297,000 |
| LREN3 | 11.87 | -1.33% | -28.65% | 12.03 | 12.17 | 11.83 | 9,683,300 |
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