Brazil Stocks Edge Higher as Inflation Expectations Ease

This report uses B3 closing data, the Banco Central do Brasil Focus survey, and the supplied Ibovespa charts. The Ibovespa closed Monday at 138,025.17, up 0.04 percent.

The index traded between 137,970.63 and 138,890.17 with roughly 15.1 billion reais in volume. The dollar closed at 5.4147 reais. The Focus survey lowered the 2025 IPCA projection to 4.86 percent and kept the 2025 Selic projection at 15.00 percent.

The survey also reduced the 2025 GDP outlook to 2.18 percent and set year-end 2025 dollar at 5.59. These official updates eased expected real rates at the margin and supported domestic risk assets.

B3 data showed clear dispersion. The five largest gainers were PCAR3 up 8.98 percent, ENEV3 up 4.61 percent, MGLU3 up 3.19 percent, RECV3 up 2.58 percent, and HAPV3 up 2.06 percent.

The five largest decliners were RAIL3 down 3.05 percent, RADL3 down 3.00 percent, NATU3 down 2.74 percent, EMBR3 down 2.41 percent, and BBAS3 down 2.20 percent.

Liquidity concentrated in index heavyweights, which helped stabilize the benchmark despite rotation under the surface. Global closes framed a mixed backdrop. The Dow fell 0.77 percent, the S&P 500 fell 0.43 percent, and the Nasdaq fell 0.22 percent.

Europe’s Stoxx 600 closed at 558.82 after a modest decline. Asia showed firmer risk appetite, with the Shanghai Composite at 3,883.56, the Hang Seng up 1.84 percent, and the Nikkei up 0.41 percent.

These prints kept external risk balanced while Brazil traded against improving local inflation expectations. The daily Ibovespa chart shows price reclaiming and holding above the 50- and 200-day moving averages near the 136,000 zone.

Price rides near the upper Bollinger Band, which reflects rising volatility with an upward bias. The daily RSI sits in the mid-50s, which indicates improving momentum without overbought stress.

The daily MACD remains slightly positive with a shallow histogram, which supports a cautious upward trend. The four-hour chart confirms near-term momentum. RSI holds in the low-60s and MACD slopes higher after a recent bullish cross.

First resistance stands between 139,000 and 140,000, where prior supply capped rallies. First support sits near 136,000, where clustered moving averages and recent lows align. Traders can use these levels to gauge confirmation or failure.

The yellow line labeled NDQ Global Liquidity Index on the chart trended lower through August. That decline signals tighter global liquidity on this timeframe and usually tempers upside follow-through.

With fundamentals improving and liquidity mixed, participants now watch official inflation readings and commodity prints for confirmation before adding risk.

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