By Paulo Santos
Brazil’s higher-than-expected productivity in some areas of second-crop corn (also known as “safrinha”) should more than compensate for the delay in planting and guarantee record numbers in 2022/23.
According to estimates released yesterday by the Rally da Safra, the harvest should reach 102.4 million tonnes, a 10% increase compared to the previous cycle.
This estimate covers the main producing areas in Brazil, organized by Agroconsult.
In the previous estimate in March, the projection was for a harvest of 97.2 million tonnes.
According to André Debastiani, coordinator of the Crop Rally, crop productivity will also be a record, reaching 102.1 bags per hectare.
The increase from the previous harvest will be 11%.
The yields in Mato Grosso and Goiás pushed up the national result. The productivity in the two states will be 116 and 114 bags per hectare, respectively.
In both cases, the performance will be a record.
Despite the favorable shipment outlook, the country should face challenges to achieve the numbers. André Pessôa, CEO of Agroconsult, says there will be “great pressure on the Brazilian logistics system by the end of the year” with the safrinha corn harvest, which should gain body in June.
“Besides the warehouses full of soybeans and the volume that will still be exported, freight prices this year will be higher for corn. We have supply and demand to meet the 54 million tonnes.”
“However, the logistical problems resulting from a robust harvest can damage the export estimate, which I still believe will be above 50 million tons”, said Pessôa in an interview with journalists.
Even if the delay in planting has not affected the production estimates, the area of safrinha corn will be smaller than the initial projections.
In January this year, Agroconsult estimated that the crop would occupy 17.4 million hectares; now, the consulting firm projects an area of 16.7 million hectares, practically the same as in the 2021/22 cycle.
According to the company, the extension of the soybean harvest affected the sowing of second-crop corn.
In some regions, such as Paraná, the second largest corn producer in the country, planting was the slowest in history.
Consequently, Agroconsult estimates that 6 million hectares of second-crop corn were sown outside the ideal period.
With information from Valor
News Brazil, English news Brazil, Brazilian agribusiness
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