Ten days before the crucial referendum in Uruguay

RIO DE JANEIRO, BRAZIL – In 10 days, Uruguay will vote whether or not to repeal 135 of the 476 articles of the Law of Urgent Consideration (LUC), the star project of the Executive of the center-right Luis Lacalle Pou, in a referendum that can be considered as a rejection or “endorsement” of his administration and which has a high percentage of undecided voters.

With a wide margin, the commission promoted by the trade union PIT-CNT and the Frente Amplio (FA), a left-wing coalition that governed Uruguay between 2005 and 2020 and today is the main opposition force, surpassed last July the 671,544 signatures required for the referendum to be held on March 27, which divides the waters in the country.

On one side, with pink ballots, the ‘Yes’ campaign is pushing to leave without effect the portion of articles of the LUC which, according to the left, go against the popular sentiment; on the other side, with light blue ballots, the ‘No’ seeks the defense of a norm which, according to the ruling party, has done nothing but benefit the citizens.

MID-TERM ELECTIONS?

As political scientist Antonio Cardarello assures, the competition is “very strong”; in an unusual tone in Uruguay, the crossing of positions has led to disqualifications or denunciations of graffiti and posters on both sides.

The fact is that, for Cardarello, the referendum, insofar as it concerns a flagship norm of the Government, can be seen as a mid-term election, a proposition that, he says, the FA made in principle, when it saw the wind in its favor, but reversed later by affirming that, “in reality, it is a referendum against the law and certain articles”.

“The Government, on the other hand, believes that it is favorable for it to talk about a mid-term election because it is supported by the results of the president’s assessment and that is why the president embodies a little bit the defense of the law”, he asserts in allusion to Lacalle, who will defend the “No” in a press conference on March 23.

The ‘Yes’ commission, for its part, will broadcast a 7-minute video on national TV the day before.

For political scientist Alfonso Lessa, comparing the referendum with the Argentine PASO is erroneous because although he believes the referendum hides a political intention to “wear down the Government,” the battle will be defined by the undecided.

“All the polls say the same thing, (the vote) is going to be defined by 25% and the people who do not know (the LUC) is much more than 25%. One out of four Uruguayans will define the election, but without knowing well what it is about,” he states and alludes to the partisan vote.

YES, NO

Both analysts agree, however, that if the ‘No’ vote wins, the Government will receive a “boost”, while if the ‘Yes’ vote wins, that boost will go to the FA, after a hesitant opposition role at the beginning of Lacalle Pou’s term of office (2020-2025).

“If the ‘No’ wins, it would be a reaffirmation of the Government, the reading will be ‘we are on the right path’,” indicates Cardarello, who believes that, on the other hand, a majority for the ‘Yes’ would give the FA a position with “the capacity to negotiate certain directions”.

Lessa stresses that 52% support for the president with two years of pandemic behind him is not minor, but, as it is not what is being voted on, “there are many doubts” about who will win in ten days.

Asked about what will happen if the ‘Yes’ vote wins, the senator of the governing National Party (PN), Carmen Asiaín, points out that the coalition will not ignore the popular pronouncement.

“There is no constitutional or legal impediment for the Government, with the same majorities that supported this law, to vote similar laws again, but there is a public commitment not to go that way,” she argues.

Regarding the ‘No’ vote, FA senator Silvia Nane says that her party will be self-critical and look “forward”.

Nane emphasizes that the repeal would avoid abuses in housing, security, or education policies and says that the law did not have the necessary debate due to the procedure called “of urgent consideration”.

“Changes are not made by proposing omnibus laws to the citizens in a minimum consideration time in Parliament,” he says.

Asiaín, on his side, defends the ‘No’ with the conviction that the contested articles “have not harmed anyone” and believes that the referendum is due to “the disappointment of not having been winners at the polls”, alluding to the electoral defeat of the left in 2019.

While the indecision defines, it remains to be seen if the pink wins over the light blue, a fight that will take place in the Uruguayan ballot boxes on March 27.

With information from EFE