Brazil: Government evaluation stable: 54% disapprove, 38% approve

RIO DE JANEIRO, BRAZIL – PoderData poll conducted from May 22 to 24 shows that President Jair Bolsonaro’s (Liberal Party – PL) government is disapproved by 54% of the Brazilian population, up from 56% in the round 15 days earlier. Approval is now 38%, up two percentage points from the last survey.

The ratings of the federal administration oscillated within the survey’s margin of error of plus or minus two percentage points. However, the movement registered in this round was positive for the Palácio do Planalto.

The rate of approval and disapproval of the Bolsonaro administration has been oscillating from 36% to 38% and from 54% to 56%, respectively, since the survey was conducted from April 10 to 12, 2022. At the beginning of the year, the government’s negative evaluation was around 60%.

The difference between approval and disapproval is now 16 percentage points. There were 36 points in the passage from August to September last year. A fortnight ago, it was 20 p.p. One month ago, it was the same 16 points.

The survey was carried out by PoderData, a company of the Poder360 Jornalismo group. Data were collected from May 22 to 24, 2022, utilizing calls to cell phones and landlines.

There were 3,000 interviews in 301 cities in the 27 states of the Federation. The margin of error is two percentage points. The confidence interval is 95%. The TSE registration is BR-05638/2022.

To reach 3,000 interviews that proportionally fill the groups by sex, age, income, education, and geographical location as they appear in society, PoderData makes tens of thousands of phone calls. Often there are more than 100,000 calls until the interviewees that faithfully represent the entire population are found.

DEMOGRAPHIC HIGHLIGHTS

Men are divided: 46% approve of the federal administration, while 49% disapprove. The majority of women (58%) disapprove of the government.

Residents of the North (47%) and Midwest (46%) are those who most approve of Bolsonaro’s administration. In the Southeast, disapproval is 57%, and in the Northeast, 53%.

BOLSONARO’S WORK

PoderData also asked the interviewees about their evaluation of Jair Bolsonaro’s work. For 51%, the president’s performance is “bad” or “terrible,” while 29% evaluate him as “great” or “good. Those who don’t know are 3%.

Bolsonaro’s “good/very good” rating had been swinging upwards from December 2021 until the end of February 2022. In mid-March, the favorable movement was interrupted when the curve swung from 30% to 27%. After this period, the rate remains between 27% and 29%.

A fortnight ago, the president’s performance was rated negatively by 53%, while 28% considered it “excellent” or “good”. The variation was within the margin of error.

The survey includes five options to evaluate the government because of the specific profile of the Brazilian electorate. In the country where most surveys are conducted with the population, the United States, for decades, the only question used has been the most direct one, which gives only two options of answer (approve or disapprove).

A portion of those who prefer to answer “regular” (when there is this option) may approve or disapprove of the leader or the government, but everything remains in a gray area.

GAP: 22 P.P.

The gap between those who think Bolsonaro’s job is “bad” or “lousy” and those who evaluate him as “great” or “good” is 22 percentage points. It is the same as one month ago. The largest gap was 35 p.p in November 2021.

APPROVAL VS. VOTE IN 2018

Today, 32% of voters who voted for Bolsonaro in the 2nd round of elections in 2018 disapprove of his government. On the other hand, those who approve are 63% of that group.

Among those who chose Haddad in 2018, 84% disapprove of the current federal administration. Those who approve in this stratum are 7%.

With information from Poder360