Brazil elections 2022: Government approval rises from 26% to 34% in one year

RIO DE JANEIRO, BRAZIL – The approval of President Jair Bolsonaro’s (PL) government is at the best level in a little over a year. According to the EXAME/IDEIA survey published on May 19, voters who approve of how the president works are 34%. Those who disapprove add up to 47%. In May last year, those who disagreed with Bolsonaro’s administration were 48%, and those who approved were 26%. There was an oscillation between those who neither approve nor disapprove in this period, going from 22% a year ago to 18%.

The survey interviewed 1,500 people between May 14 and 19. The interviews were conducted by telephone, with calls to residential landlines and cell phones. The margin of error is three percentage points higher or lower. The survey was registered with the Superior Electoral Court under the number BR-01734/2022. EXAME/IDEIA is a project that unites EXAME and IDEIA, a research institute specializing in public opinion.

By region, President Bolsonaro gained support in places where he usually is better evaluated. In the North, in May last year, 23% of people approved of the way he works. This number jumped to 54%. In the Center-West, a similar fact occurred, going from 27% approval to 46%.

The worst moment in the president’s approval rating coincided with the first month of the work of the CPI of the Pandemic Covid-19 in the Senate, which investigated alleged embezzlement in the face of the health crisis. The investigation also showed evidence of purposeful delays in the purchase of vaccines. At the time, 59% of Brazilians supported the senators’ work.

But vaccination has advanced, surpassing 76% of Brazilians immunized with two doses, according to the Ministry of Health data. According to EXAME/IDEIA, the big problem now, in the opinion of the population, is inflation (19%) and unemployment (23%).

IMPROVEMENT IN APPROVAL REFLECTS ON THE ELECTION

If the second round of the presidential election were held today, former president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (Workers’ Party – PT) would have 46% of voting intentions, and Bolsonaro would have 39%, according to the electoral survey EXAME/IDEIA. The distance between the two is seven percentage points, the smallest in a year, following the approval numbers.

Considering the simulation of a second round in the historical series, Bolsonaro had an advantage over Lula da Silva until April last year, when the Petista overtook the current president in the voters’ preference. The biggest gap between the two reached 17 percentage points at the end of last year, but it has started to narrow since then. In the April poll, the difference between the two was 9 points.

In a simulated first round of voting, in which the names are presented in advance, Lula da Silva exceeded 40% in January of this year and has oscillated within the margin of error, standing at 41% in this May 19 survey. Bolsonaro went from 24% at the beginning of the year to 32%. Ciro Gomes was with seven points in January and now has 9% of voting intentions.

Bolsonaro maintains the advantage over Lula da Silva, registered in the April survey, in the North (50% X 24%), Center-West (43% X 28%), and South (40% X 34%) regions. The PT has the voters’ preference in the country’s largest electoral regions: Southeast (37% to 33%) and Northeast (58% to 19%).

By income, the current president would win among the wealthiest. Bolsonaro appears with 41% of voting intentions in classes A and B, against 34% for Lula. In classes D and E, the candidate from the Workers Party has 45%, against 24% for the current president.

With information from Exame