Ibovespa Drops 1.04% as Poll Shows a Tie | Brazil Market Report, Oct 13
Key Facts
- Brazil’s Ibovespa fell 1.04% to 206,887.52 on Tuesday 13 October, its first session after Monday’s holiday and after a record close of 209,066.90 on Friday.
- The real weakened 0.81% to 5.03 per US dollar, after 4.99 on Friday.
- A BTG/Nexus poll put Flávio Bolsonaro at 48% and Lula at 45%, which InfoMoney described as a technical tie before the 25 October runoff.
- Petrobras rose 1.52% while Itaú fell 1.57% and Magazine Luiza 7.04%, so oil stocks held up as banks and retailers led the fall.
- Prediction markets: Polymarket gives Flávio Bolsonaro 86.1% and Lula 13.5% to win the presidency (US$181 million traded, read at 8:50 pm ET on 13 October). Bets, not polls.
Today’s Focus
Brazil’s main stock index, the Ibovespa, fell 1.04% to 206,887.52 points on Tuesday 13 October. It was the first trading day after the Monday holiday and followed a record close on Friday.
The real weakened 0.81% to 5.03 per US dollar, using our RT feed. Brazilian press quoted the commercial dollar at R$5.02, up 0.71%.
Analysts linked the fall to caution at home and abroad, InfoMoney reported. The election race and US-Iran tension were in focus.
What matters today. Profit-taking after record highs met a tight election poll, which matters to US investors holding Brazil through the EWZ fund or Petrobras and Vale shares.
01 The session in one read
The Ibovespa closed at 206,887.52, down 2,179.38 points. On Friday it had set a record close of 209,066.90 after a 1.38% gain.
Brazil’s B3 exchange was shut on Monday 12 October for the Nossa Senhora Aparecida holiday. Tuesday was therefore the first chance to trade the week’s news, and sellers took profits.
The index fell from a record while the real weakened against a softer global dollar. That mix suggests local drivers, and the poll is the clearest one.
The variable to watch is whether further surveys confirm a tie. Each new poll before the runoff will keep the market sensitive.
02 The day’s numbers
| Measure | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Ibovespa (B3) | 206,887.52 | -1.04% |
| USD/BRL (RT) | 5.0273 | +0.81% |
| Commercial dollar (press) | R$5.02 | +0.71% |
| S&P 500 (US) | 7,805.45 | -0.02% |
| Dollar index (DXY) | 102.2 | -0.36% |
| EWZ fund (US$) | 42.87 | -1.54% |
Futures-market interest rates, known as DIs, rose along the whole curve at the close, InfoMoney reported. Higher rates usually weigh on shares and on borrowers. Rio Times · Live Market Intelligence
Live Market IntelligenceBrazil — Live Market Board
Brazil — Live Market Board
Instrument Last Change YoY Prev. High Low Volume
IBOV
206,887.52
-1.04%
+21.85%
209,066.90
168,310
167,142
—
USD/BRL
5.16
+0.01%
-5.13%
5.16
5.18
5.14
—
SELIC
14.00%
—
—
—
—
—
PETR4
41.64
-0.05%
+35.19%
41.66
41.97
41.15
41,499,400
VALE3
72.97
+0.83%
+30.75%
72.37
73.54
72.66
17,658,000
ITUB4
38.60
-1.03%
+4.57%
39.00
39.34
38.39
29,487,800
BBDC4
16.85
+0.36%
+3.50%
16.79
16.90
16.67
19,416,900
BBAS3
19.37
+0.47%
+0.73%
19.28
19.44
19.16
11,069,200
B3SA3
14.26
-0.21%
+12.73%
14.29
14.47
14.11
33,037,800
ABEV3
14.89
-0.80%
+21.91%
15.01
15.07
14.81
16,453,100
WEGE3
47.59
+0.49%
+29.99%
47.36
48.08
47.36
3,364,600
PRIO3
59.14
-0.19%
+50.67%
59.25
59.81
58.74
3,325,600
SUZB3
41.33
+2.35%
-23.55%
40.38
41.48
40.35
3,914,900
RENT3
34.68
-0.09%
+0.84%
34.71
34.96
34.35
7,979,100
AZZA3
15.89
-2.63%
-53.76%
16.32
16.42
15.82
1,330,300
CSNA3
4.30
+0.47%
-42.65%
4.28
4.41
4.26
10,076,100
GGBR4
24.69
+2.19%
+51.38%
24.16
24.85
24.18
7,047,600
ENEV3
24.21
-1.38%
+70.49%
24.55
24.64
23.99
9,297,000
03 Why it moved: a tied poll and profit-taking
The BTG/Nexus poll showed Flávio Bolsonaro on 48% and President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva on 45%. InfoMoney called it a technical tie, meaning the gap is small enough to be within normal polling error.
The runoff is on Sunday 25 October, according to the TSE, Brazil’s electoral court. Investors watch the race because the two camps differ on public spending and the role of the state.
The index had also just set a record on Friday, so some sellers took gains. Abroad, US indices ended lower and JPMorgan’s third-quarter results came in below analysts’ expectations, InfoMoney said.
04 The day’s movers
| Stock | Note | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Petrobras (PETR4) | Oil majors rose | +1.52% |
| PRIO (PRIO3) | Oil producer | +3.58% |
| Vale (VALE3) | Miner | -1.09% |
| Itaú Unibanco (ITUB4) | Largest private bank | -1.57% |
| Banco do Brasil (BBAS3) | State bank | -1.58% |
| B3 (B3SA3) | Exchange operator | -2.53% |
| Magazine Luiza (MGLU3) | Retailer | -7.04% |
| Lojas Renner (LREN3) | Retailer | -8.03% |
Retailers suffered most, with Magazine Luiza falling even after an upgrade to buy. Petrobras and the smaller oil producers rose as a group.
05 The regional scoreboard
Brazil’s fall was not matched across the region. Mexico’s IPC rose 0.33%, Argentina’s Merval 1.45% and Colombia’s COLCAP 1.54%, while Chile’s IPSA slipped 0.21%.
In New York, the iShares MSCI Brazil fund EWZ fell 1.54% to US$42.87. The S&P 500 ended at 7,805.45, down 0.02%, and the Dow Jones fell 0.35%.
06 The technical picture and outlook
The Ibovespa now sits 1.04% below Friday’s record close of 209,066.90. A move back above that level would show that Tuesday’s drop was only a pause.
The dollar index fell 0.36% to 102.2, yet the real still lost ground. That points to local factors, mainly the election, rather than a broad dollar rally.
What Prediction Markets Say
Polymarket, a prediction market, priced Flávio Bolsonaro at 86.1% and Lula at 13.5% to win the presidency, with US$180,980,888 traded (read at 8:50 pm ET on 13 October). It also priced a 25-basis-point Selic cut in November at 89.5%.
These prices are bets, not polls, and they can move quickly on new surveys.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
07 What to watch
- Election polls: More surveys will show whether the tie holds before the 25 October runoff.
- US inflation data: US consumer prices for September are due on Wednesday 14 October at 12:30 UTC (8:30 am ET), and a hot reading could lift yields.
- The real: A move back below 5.00 per dollar would calm the market, while a rise above 5.05 would show stress.
- Friday’s record: The Ibovespa needs to recover 209,066.90 to erase Tuesday’s loss.
Background: What Brazil’s Runoff Means for US Investors.
Background: Ibovespa Hits Record 209,067 as Real Gains.
More: Brazil news in English, every day from The Rio Times.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why did the Ibovespa fall on 13 October?
It fell 1.04% to 206,887.52 after a holiday and a record week, as a BTG/Nexus poll showed a tie and investors took profits, according to InfoMoney.
What did the poll show?
BTG/Nexus put Flávio Bolsonaro at 48% and Lula at 45%, which InfoMoney called a technical tie. The runoff is on 25 October.
What happened to the Brazilian real?
The real weakened about 0.8% to 5.03 per US dollar in our RT data. Brazilian press quoted the commercial dollar at R$5.02.
What do prediction markets say about the election?
Polymarket priced Flávio Bolsonaro at 86.1% and Lula at 13.5% as of 8:50 pm ET on 13 October. These are bets, not polls.
Market data: RT; close, movers and poll: InfoMoney; prediction markets: Polymarket (as of 8:50 pm ET, 13 October 2026)
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief
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