Bolsonaro’s Party Triumphs in Major Brazilian Cities, Raising Concerns for Lula’s PT

(Analysis) The recent municipal elections in Brazil have revealed a significant shift in political dynamics. Jair Bolsonaro’s Liberal Party (PL) has made substantial gains in large cities.

This success stems from Bolsonaro’s focused efforts to secure positions for his allies in city councils and mayoral offices. PL’s performance in the elections has been remarkable.

The party elected 306 city council members in the 103 largest cities with over 200,000 inhabitants. These urban centers often serve as regional hubs with considerable influence on surrounding areas.

PL’s achievement surpassed all other parties, with PSD coming in second with 220 elected officials. The Liberal Party’s reach extends across 94 of the most populous municipalities.

This widespread presence outperforms other parties, with Republicanos following closely behind. In executive positions, PL secured 10 mayoral seats in the first round and has 23 candidates in runoff elections.

Altineu Côrtes, PL’s leader in the Chamber of Deputies, expressed satisfaction with the results. He emphasized the importance of these elections as a foundation for the 2026 national elections.

Political experts agree that this municipal success could translate into a stronger base for future federal campaigns. The connection between local and federal elections is crucial.

Mayra Goulart, a political scientist, explains that federal deputies rely on local mediators for their campaigns. She notes that PL’s success isn’t solely due to Bolsonaro’s street campaign efforts.

PL’s strategy involved significant financial resources. The party had access to a budget of nearly R$ 1 billion ($200 million) from electoral and party funds.

This financial strength allowed PL to attract local leaders and potential candidates during the party-switching window.

Bolsonaro’s Party Triumphs in Major Brazilian Cities, Raising Concerns for Lula’s PT

Christian Lynch, a professor at IESP-UERJ, points out the role of PL’s president, Valdemar Costa Neto. Costa Neto aims to expand the party’s representation, as more seats in Congress mean increased access to funds.

Lynch describes the strategy as a “reverse PT,” capitalizing on Bolsonaro’s popularity. While PL celebrated its success, the Workers’ Party (PT) faced disappointing results.

PT, led by President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, ranked seventh in electing city council members in major cities. The party secured only 167 seats, less than half of PL’s achievement.

Thomas Traumann, a political consultant, warns that PT should be concerned about these results. He suggests that the party needs to reassess its strategy to support the re-election of its deputies.

PT had hoped to perform better than in 2020, but the improvement was marginal. José Guimarães, the government leader in the Chamber, remains optimistic.

He highlights PT’s growth in nominal votes and its presence in 13 second-round mayoral races. Guimarães sees this as an opportunity for PT to demonstrate its strength in important cities.

The elections have highlighted the pivotal role of centrist and center-right political forces. In response, some left-wing leaders are advocating for alliances with these groups to counter the persistence of Bolsonarism, which the left continues to view as a far-right movement.

The mayoral election in Rio de Janeiro serves as an example of successful cooperation between centrist and left-wing parties.

As Brazil’s political landscape evolves, these municipal election results may have far-reaching implications for future national elections.

The success of Bolsonaro’s PL and the challenges faced by PT signal a potential shift in the country’s political dynamics.

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