Argentine Peso vs. USD Market Report: March 13, 2025 – Morning Analysis

As of this morning, March 13, 2025, the Argentine peso continues to navigate challenging waters against the US dollar.

The official exchange rate stands at AR$1,066.13 per USD, while the informal “blue dollar” rate trades at AR$1,210, maintaining a 14.2% gap between the official and parallel markets.

Market Movement – Past 24 Hours

Yesterday’s trading session saw minimal movement in the official rate, with the USD/ARS increasing marginally by 0.04% from 1,065.70 to 1,066.13.

This slight uptick continues the peso’s long-term depreciation trend, with technical indicators showing the currency trading well above both its 50-day moving average (1053.67) and 200-day moving average (1005.69).

The blue dollar market maintained relative stability overnight, continuing to trade near the AR$1,210 mark, which represents a significant shift from December 2023 when it peaked at AR$1,250 shortly after President Milei took office.

Market Dynamics & Analysis

The narrowing “brecha” (gap between official and parallel rates) demonstrates continued progress in Milei’s economic stabilization efforts. This gap has shrunk dramatically from nearly 200% in November 2023 to the current 14.2%.

However, this narrowing gap, combined with Argentina’s high inflation, is making the country more expensive for those who earn or save in foreign currencies.

The Central Bank continues to strengthen its position, having purchased US$468 million just last week – the highest volume since July 2023. Since Milei took office, the monetary authority has bought an impressive US$12.1 billion, boosting gross international reserves to US$28.3 billion.

Expert Commentary

“Milei hasn’t just talked the talk, but is actually walking the walk,” stated Malcolm Dorson, senior portfolio manager at Global X Management. “He has trade balances, he has built a fiscal surplus, inflation is ticking down, and economic activity is picking up.”

Gustavo Quintana, analyst and broker for PR Corredores de Cambio, attributes the decrease in parallel market rates to several factors, including the success of the “blend” dollar policy allowing exporters to sell 80% of their dollars in the official market and 20% at the blue-chip swap rate.

He also notes the importance of limited monetary issuance under Milei’s administration, referencing the president’s famous “there is no money” statement.

Technical Analysis & Forecasts

Technical indicators confirm the peso’s continued challenges, with a 14-day RSI of 61.68 suggesting ongoing bullish momentum for the dollar against the peso. Over the past year, the peso has lost 20.52% of its value against the greenback.

Analysts project the USD/ARS rate will reach 1065.82 by the end of this quarter and 1068.69 within one year, indicating expectations of continued but more controlled depreciation.

Market Volumes & Investment Flows

Argentine financial assets continue to attract significant investor interest. The Global X MSCI Argentina ETF has seen dramatic growth in assets since Milei took office, jumping from US$104 million to approximately US$750 million. This investment confidence reflects positive sentiment toward the administration’s economic reforms.

Interestingly, cryptocurrency markets have also seen substantial growth in peso-denominated trading, with the Argentine peso monthly trading volume against crypto up by 400% this year – the highest increase among Latin American currencies.

This surge is attributed to fears about potential peso devaluation that preceded Milei’s election in November 2023.

Economic Health Assessment

The narrowing gap between official and blue dollar rates indicates progress toward Milei’s goal of convergence to a single exchange rate, which is crucial for improving Argentina’s business environment.

The crawling-peg regime implemented in December 2023, with its 2% monthly depreciation, has helped stabilize the currency, though some analysts believe this rate may be insufficient given the country’s high inflation expectations.

Despite these positive developments, Argentina’s economic recovery remains fragile and heavily dependent on maintaining fiscal discipline and attracting external capital.

The success of Milei’s attempts to reduce the fiscal deficit and slow money issuance will be critical for stabilizing the peso and rebuilding confidence in the Argentine economy.

The current economic indicators suggest that while Argentina is making progress in addressing its chronic currency instability, significant challenges remain. The continued gap between official and parallel rates, though narrowed, reflects ongoing market distortions that will take time to fully resolve.