Argentina’s economic activity would have grown 6.2% in January, but drops compared to December

RIO DE JANEIRO, BRAZIL – Argentina’s Monthly Economic Activity Estimator (EMAE) would have grown by 6.2% year-on-year in January, less than in December, due to the low performance of several items, according to the median of a Reuters poll.

Estimates among thirteen local and foreign analysts showed an average improvement of 6.7% for the EMAE of the first month of 2022.

“Activity suffered in the first month of the year and fell compared to December dragged down by the poor performance of industry and construction and the logistic problems in different sectors due to the Covid cases’ triggering,” said Isaías Marini, an economist at Econviews consulting firm.

“Although the excellent tourist season partially moderated the decline,” he added.

According to data from the National Institute of Statistics and Censuses (INDEC), Argentina’s economic activity registered a 9.8% interannual increase last December, while the accumulated figure for the year – compared to the same period of the previous year – showed an increase of 10.3%.

Analysts’ great disparity of estimates ranged between a minimum and maximum advance of 4.8% and 9.7% for the EMAE of January 2022.

“Although economic activity contracted sharply compared to December, this number is influenced by what happened in the industry, an indicator that should be taken with caution in its first estimates due to technical stoppages,” said the consulting firm Orlando Ferreres y Asociados.

For his part, Marini said that “in February activity rebounded, but for the next months, we do not expect much dynamism in terms of activity. For now, our projection is for average growth of 3.5% for the whole of 2022, below the statistical drag left by December”.

The INDEC, according to its publication calendar, is expected to release the official EMAE data for the first month of 2022 on Tuesday afternoon.

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