Argentina Markets Weather Political Storm as Peso Finds Footing
Markets across Argentina showed resilience on September 5, 2025, despite political turmoil surrounding President Javier Milei ahead of crucial provincial elections.
The S&P Merval surged 3.08% to close at 1,993,559 points, recovering from steep losses earlier in the week. The peso stabilized at 1,362 per dollar within the government’s established trading band.
Treasury intervention helped contain currency volatility after the peso approached the 1,400 ceiling earlier this week. Blue dollar rates converged near official levels at approximately 1,365, signaling reduced parallel market premiums.
The Buenos Aires stock exchange demonstrated strong technical momentum on Thursday. The Merval broke through key resistance levels near 1,970,000 points with heavy volume trading.
Relative strength indicators moved into bullish territory above 50 levels. Energy companies led Thursday’s gains with YPF advancing 2.3% and Pampa Energia rising 1.4%.
Financial stocks showed mixed performance as Grupo Financiero Galicia gained 3.2% while other banks lagged. The consumer discretionary sector faced selling pressure.
Central bank data revealed mixed monetary conditions. Interest rates on overnight repo operations remained at 33% while private bank deposit rates soared above 50% due to new reserve requirements.
BCRA international reserves stood at 40,763 million dollars as of September 2. The dollar index weakened 0.20% to 98.08, supporting emerging market currencies.
Federal Reserve rate cut expectations reached nearly 100% probability for September, creating favorable external conditions for risk assets.
Technical analysis reveals conflicting signals across timeframes. The daily Merval chart shows a strong recovery pattern with volume confirmation.
However, the monthly trend remains bearish with the index down 15.05% from August highs. Support levels hold near 1,930,000 points.
Argentina’s inflation continued its downward trajectory with July data showing 1.9% monthly increases and 36.6% annually.
This marks continued disinflation from peak levels above 290% last year. Analysts raised 2025 inflation forecasts slightly to 28.2%. Political risks intensified following corruption allegations against presidential chief of staff Karina Milei.
Congressional opposition successfully overturned the president’s disability benefits veto for the first time. Sunday’s Buenos Aires provincial election carries significant market implications.
The peso’s performance within the 1,000-1,400 band reflects successful monetary engineering. Government officials maintain the exchange rate policy despite intervention measures.
Market makers report normalized trading conditions following earlier volatility spikes. ETF flows into Argentine assets remained subdued with the Global X MSCI Argentina ETF showing modest gains.
International investors await clarity on upcoming elections and policy continuity. The MSCI emerging market upgrade possibility adds potential upside catalysts.
Friday’s session will focus on US employment data and weekend election preparations. Technical indicators suggest short-term consolidation before directional moves. The convergence between official and parallel exchange rates represents a key stability measure for markets.
Live Market IntelligenceArgentina — Live Market Board
Rio Times · Live Market Intelligence
Argentina — Live Market Board
+0.05%
167,927.15
+0.06%
64,436.38
+0.68%
11,237.90
-0.03%
2,875,950
+0.05%
2,444.32
-0.39%
58,380.78
+0.54%
| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MERVAL | 2,875,950 | +0.05% | +30.51% | 3,022,485 | 3,042,365 | 2,991,150 | — |
| USD/ARS | 1,493 | +0.10% | +12.96% | 1,491 | 1,494 | 1,480 | — |
| YPF | 7,810 | +0.26% | +72.84% | 7,790 | 7,850 | 7,600 | 1,763,858 |
| GGAL | 6,980 | -0.78% | +1.82% | 7,035 | 7,115 | 6,920 | 1,564,062 |
| PAMPA | 5,115 | +0.69% | +26.70% | 5,080 | 5,140 | 5,000 | 721,190 |
| TXAR | 747.50 | -2.35% | +18.67% | 765.50 | 770.00 | 742.50 | 771,892 |
| ALUAR | 938.00 | -1.21% | +29.83% | 949.50 | 951.00 | 932.50 | 135,426 |
| TGS | 8,870 | -0.17% | +15.05% | 8,885 | 9,075 | 8,720 | 143,546 |
| CEPU | 2,156 | +1.84% | +28.36% | 2,117 | 2,165 | 2,086 | 404,146 |
| MIRGOR | 1,650 | -1.20% | -92.90% | 1,670 | 1,670 | 1,635 | 20,877 |
| COME | 40.93 | -0.73% | -30.47% | 41.23 | 41.60 | 40.50 | 4,258,884 |
| LOMA NEGRA | 3,130 | +0.08% | +5.80% | 3,128 | 3,205 | 3,090 | 182,992 |
| BYMA | 275.00 | -1.70% | +35.14% | 279.75 | 282.50 | 272.00 | 1,409,575 |
| TELECOM ARG | 4,233 | -0.70% | +55.19% | 4,263 | 4,335 | 4,160 | 31,896 |
| GLOBANT | 38.10 | -2.26% | -49.65% | 38.98 | 38.70 | 36.77 | 793,552 |
| MERCADOLIBRE | 1,870 | -3.59% | -20.71% | 1,940 | 1,927 | 1,870 | 329,640 |
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