Analysis: Costa Rica, Colombia and Brazil will go to the polls in 2022 and define the ideological map of the region

RIO DE JANEIRO, BRAZIL – Latin America experienced a year full of elections in 2021. Ecuador, Peru, Nicaragua, Chile, and Honduras elected new heads of state and deputies, while Argentina and Venezuela renewed sectional and regional governments.

Next year, in 2022, it will be the turn of Costa Rica, Colombia, and Brazil to determine the ideological map of the region, which has undergone profound changes in recent years.

“2021 and 2022 are election years for Latin America, and each election is an important process for each country, marking a before and after… There is a commonality in the region’s elections, which is the search for a kind of middle ground for pragmatism because I think all the countries in the region have experienced processes of left, right, economic crises,” says political scientist Arianna Tanca.

COSTA RICA IN FEBRUARY

The first ballot will be held in Costa Rica on February 6, when 3′517,971 Costa Ricans are called to elect a new president, two vice presidents, and 57 deputies for the legislative assembly.

So far, 24 presidential candidates have registered. If none of the presidential candidates receives more than 40% of the vote, a second-round will be held on April 3 to elect the two candidates with the most votes.

Although the elections are barely two months away, polls conducted a few weeks ago showed the number of undecided voters at 53%, making it difficult to see a clear trend in who might succeed President Carlos Alvarado Quesada, who belongs to the center to center-left, according to CNN.

Former President José María Figueres of the National Liberation Party (center/center-right) would get 13%, Lineth Saborío of the Social Christian Unity Party (center-right) 10%, and José María Villalta of the Broad Front (left-wing) 6%. The three are the candidates who would receive the most votes.

For Tanca, this country is one of the most stable democracies in the region, and he believes it will remain so.

COLOMBIA IN MAY

A month and seven days later, it will be Colombia’s turn. On March 13, more than 37 million Colombians will go to the polls to elect senators and deputies to Congress. After a little more than two months, on May 29, they will elect their new president.

President Iván Duque is not expected to stand for election, as the constitution does not re-elect.

Leftist Gustavo Petro, who lost to Duque in 2018, has confirmed his participation after the country’s Constitutional Court in September ordered the National Electoral Council (CNE) to recognize the legal status of his Colombia Humana (center-left/left) political movement.

Sergio Fajardo, former mayor of Medellín and a former candidate for 2018, is another politician trying to get into the Casa de Nariño. Fajardo hopes to be elected by the Centro Esperanza (Center) coalition, soon holding its internal elections.

The ruling Democratic Center party (center/center-right) is represented by Óscar Iván Zuluaga, an economist, businessman, politician, and former finance minister during the second term of Álvaro Uribe’s government (2006-2010).

The second round of voting, if necessary, is scheduled for June 19.

BRAZIL IN OCTOBER

In the last quarter of 2022, it will be Brazil’s turn. Latin America’s largest country and after the U.S. the second-largest economy of all of the Americas will elect a president, senators, and deputies for the National Congress.

The first round of voting will take place on October 2, 2022. If no candidate receives an absolute majority of votes, as required by the country’s constitution, the second round will occur on October 30.

According to the Supreme Electoral Court, a total of 147′918 483 Brazilians are eligible to go to the polls.

President Jair Bolsonaro is expected to seek re-election and also run against former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (2003-2010). According to experts, he has expressed his intention to run and could be a strong contender.

According to several polls released last month, Lula would lead in electoral intentions with 48% of the vote, followed by Bolsonaro with 21%.

Former judge and justice minister Sergio Moro and lawyer and former candidate Ciro Gomes would also try to get into the Alvorada Palace, receiving about 8% of the vote.

The same polls show that Lula would receive 57% of the vote second-round, while Bolsonaro would come in at 21%.

Tanca believes Brazil is a particular case because of the country’s “left and right swings and rampant corruption.”

“Bolsonaro’s leadership style also represents a kind of right-wing with more authoritarian features… so we could speculate that a scenario like Chile could happen,” Tanca says, referring to the victory of left-wing leader Gabriel Boric, who prevailed December 19 against far-right Jose Antonio Kast.

“Radical leaders generate radical positions and reactions; we see that in Chile, in Ecuador. Ideological polarization and the fragmentation of society make it difficult to govern. That’s why Latin America needs a pragmatic leadership, a kind of center to manage these crises, which are not only political but also social and health because the Covid 19 pandemic is making everything worse,” she explains.

IDEOLOGICAL MAP CHANGED IN 2021

In April, Ecuador shifted to the right when it elected Guillermo Lasso as president, winning by five points over Correas Andrés Arauz.

The outcome was much closer in Peru, where extreme leftist Professor Pedro Castillo and authoritarian rightist Keiko Fujimori faced off on June 6 in a close election that was not decided until a month and a half later, when Castillo was proclaimed president amid allegations of fraud by the opposition.

Other leftward shifts in 2021 occurred in Honduras with the triumph of former first lady Xiomara Castro de Zelaya (liberal) and in Chile with the election of 35-year-old Boric (far left), who sparked a flurry of cheers among his supporters, AFP reports.

However, the election year was also marked by irregularities in Nicaragua, a left-wing dictatorship. The November 7 elections strengthened Daniel Ortega’s grip on power, even though they were deemed illegitimate by the international community given the previous detention and repression of opposition figures.