Africa Intelligence Brief — Monday, August 10, 2026
Executive Summary
Africa Intelligence Brief for August 10: DR Congo is testing its cobalt exports for uranium after an investigation alleged thousands of tonnes left
Rio Times · Africa Intelligence Brief August 10
Key Facts
—Uranium inquiry DR Congo will test its cobalt exports after research estimated that thousands of tonnes of uranium left the country as a by-product over two decades.
—Sixty days Kinshasa has given itself sixty days to assess health and environmental risks, and will consult the international nuclear watchdog.
—Zambia votes Zambians choose a president and parliament on Thursday, with copper providing about 70% of the country’s export earnings.
—A fiscal gap Standard Chartered expects Zambia’s 2026 deficit near 5.0% of output, more than double the government’s 2.1% target.
—Cape Town shootings Eleven people were killed in three separate mass shootings in Khayelitsha, Langa and Gugulethu, with no arrests reported.
—Sall falters Macky Sall took six votes in favour, seven against and two abstentions in the first Security Council ballot for United Nations secretary-general.
One country is counting its votes on whether copper has paid off, and the other is counting, for the first time, what has been leaving alongside it.
DR Congo – The Uranium in the Cobalt
A state that starts measuring
The Democratic Republic of Congo said on Friday it will test its cobalt exports for uranium. The decision follows research published on 30 July in the journal Nature Communications, examined by the Financial Times and Lighthouse Reports, which estimated that thousands of tonnes of the radioactive metal left the country as a by-product over roughly two decades.
Kinshasa will set up a working group, consult the International Atomic Energy Agency about a technical mission, and assess health and environmental risks within sixty days. It also plans to install radiation detectors on trucks leaving the country.
Contested, and taken seriously anyway
The government disputes the method, saying the estimates rest on modelling rather than direct measurements of exported material, and that uranium occurring alongside copper and cobalt in the region is natural and well documented. Chinese mining companies operating in the country reject the claims outright.
The head of the Congolese nuclear energy agency told the Financial Times it was technically possible and even probable that uranium had been extracted from exported ore, while stressing there is no direct evidence. The national mood is neither denial nor alarm but a wary insistence on checking, which is itself new.
Zambia – Three Days to the Copper Vote
Reform seeks its receipt
Zambians vote on Thursday for a president and parliament, with President Hakainde Hichilema seeking a second term against a fragmented opposition led by Brian Mundubile. The country is Africa’s second-largest copper producer and the world’s eighth, and copper supplies about 70% of its export earnings.
Hichilema steered the country through a punishing debt restructuring after it became the pandemic era’s first sovereign defaulter. The question this week is whether voters feel any of it in their own lives.
Stability without the receipts
The previous 1.7 billion dollar programme with the International Monetary Fund expired in January, and investors treat a successor as the real test of continuity. Standard Chartered expects this year’s deficit near 5.0% of output, more than double the government’s 2.1% target, partly because a record maize harvest obliges the state to buy heavily from farmers.
Drought has also undercut a power system that leans on hydro, forcing cuts that stall industry. Zambia’s temper is that of a country asked to be patient for five years and now being asked, politely, for proof.
South Africa – A Speech Against Violence, and Eleven Dead
Seventy years after the march
President Cyril Ramaphosa marked Women’s Day at the Union Buildings on Sunday, seventy years after thousands of women gathered there to protest against apartheid pass laws. He condemned those who try to justify abuse, saying how women dress or behave can never be an excuse.
He called on men and boys to take a stronger stand and on communities to stop turning away. He also urged more women into science and engineering.
The same weekend, in Cape Town
Eleven people were killed in three separate mass shootings in the city. Three men died in Khayelitsha, five in Langa, and three at the Barcelona settlement in Gugulethu, where two others were wounded.
Police have reinforced deployments and no arrests have been made, with motives still under investigation. The gap between the speech at the Union Buildings and the weekend in the townships is the country’s whole predicament in a single day.
Senegal – Six For, Seven Against
A candidacy that stalls at the first ballot
Former president Macky Sall took six votes in favour, seven against and two abstentions in the Security Council’s first informal ballot for United Nations secretary-general, held on 30 July. The polls are non-binding, and further rounds are expected through August and possibly into the autumn.
Two Africans are in the race, Sall and Uganda’s Olara Otunnu, who entered late. A former head of the United Nations Economic Commission for Africa judges the continent’s chances this year to be low.
A prize Africa keeps not winning
Sall was nominated by Burundi rather than by his own country, and only secured Senegal’s endorsement later. At home the ruling party still holds him responsible for deaths during protests in 2021 and 2023.
The mood in Dakar is not wounded so much as unsurprised. A continent that supplies the world’s minerals is still waiting to supply its secretary-general.
One country is counting votes on whether its copper has paid off, and its neighbour has begun counting what has been leaving alongside the same ore — the Copperbelt, at last, taking its own inventory.
Kenya – The Arithmetic of 2027
A retreat at Naivasha
President William Ruto and Oburu Odinga led a broad-based parliamentary retreat at Naivasha, gathering legislators from across the governing arrangement. The subject is the shape of the coalition heading into the 2027 election.
Kenyan politics is already organising itself around that date. Alliances are being tested well before any campaign formally begins.
Governing and campaigning at once
The country’s mood is watchful and transactional, with everyone counting numbers a year and a half early. That leaves less attention for the cost of living that drove last year’s protests.
Kenya’s economy has held up better than many of its neighbours. Its politics is the part that never rests.
Sudan – The Students Who Kept Going
Education as refusal
Sudanese students are finding ways to continue studying through a conflict that has emptied universities and scattered families. United Nations accounts describe young people sitting examinations and resuming courses in displacement.
One of them said simply that it made him dream again. It is a small sentence carrying a great deal.
What persistence is worth
A generation losing its education is the slowest and most expensive damage any conflict does. Countries that keep teaching through disaster recover years faster than those that do not.
The mood here is stubbornness rather than hope, which may be more durable. Sudan’s students are protecting the one asset nobody can carry away.
The Bigger Picture
The Copperbelt is one geological formation running under two countries, and this week it holds both of the continent’s largest stories. Zambia votes on Thursday on whether five years of reform have reached ordinary lives, with copper supplying about 70% of export earnings and a deficit heading for double its target.
Across the border, DR Congo has begun testing what leaves alongside the same ore, after research alleged that thousands of tonnes of uranium were exported unmeasured for two decades. The claim is disputed by the government and by the Chinese firms involved, and Kinshasa is checking anyway, which is the part that matters.
Elsewhere the day was about counting of a different kind. South Africa counted eleven dead in three Cape Town shootings on the weekend its president spoke against violence, Senegal counted six votes for Macky Sall and seven against, and Kenya’s politicians counted their numbers for an election still a year and a half away.
Africa Intelligence Brief August 10: What We Are Watching
- 13 August – Zambia’s presidential and parliamentary elections.
- Coming weeks – Whether Zambia agrees a successor programme with the International Monetary Fund.
- Within 60 days – DR Congo’s assessment of health and environmental risks from uranium in cobalt exports.
- Coming weeks – Whether the International Atomic Energy Agency sends a technical mission to Kinshasa.
- Through August – Further Security Council ballots for United Nations secretary-general.
- Ongoing – Arrests, or the absence of them, after the Cape Town shootings.
Go Deeper
The full Africa Intelligence Dossier — the interactive risk dashboard and the six people who matter — is updated daily by the Rio Times Intelligence Desk.
More from the Rio Times Intelligence Desk on August 10: the Europe Intelligence Brief, the Asia Intelligence Brief and the USA & Canada Intelligence Brief. For how these stories developed, see the Africa Intelligence Brief for August 8 and the Africa Intelligence Brief for August 7.
Background: Africa–Latin America Trade Could Hit US$1 Trillion by 2030.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why is DR Congo testing its cobalt exports for uranium?
Research published on 30 July in Nature Communications, examined by the Financial Times and Lighthouse Reports, estimated that thousands of tonnes of uranium left the country as a by-product of cobalt exports over roughly two decades, most of it destined for Chinese-owned entities. The government announced on 7 August that it would test exported cobalt hydroxide, form a working group, consult the International Atomic Energy Agency and assess health and environmental risks within sixty days, while disputing the study’s methodology and noting that uranium occurs naturally alongside copper and cobalt in the region.
What is at stake in Zambia’s election on 13 August?
President Hakainde Hichilema is seeking a second term against a fragmented opposition led by Brian Mundubile, in a vote widely seen as a test of whether his economic reforms have reached ordinary households. Zambia is Africa’s second-largest copper producer and copper accounts for roughly 70% of export earnings, while a 1.7 billion dollar International Monetary Fund programme expired in January and Standard Chartered expects the 2026 deficit near 5.0% of output against a 2.1% target.
What did President Ramaphosa say on Women’s Day?
Speaking at the Union Buildings on Sunday 9 August, seventy years after the 1956 march against pass laws, Ramaphosa condemned those who attempt to justify abuse, saying how women dress or behave can never serve as a justification, and urged men and boys to take a stronger stand while calling on communities not to turn a blind eye. Over the same weekend eleven people were killed in three separate mass shootings in Khayelitsha, Langa and Gugulethu, with police reinforcing deployments and no arrests reported.
How did Macky Sall perform in the first UN straw poll?
In the Security Council’s first informal ballot on 30 July, the former Senegalese president received six votes in favour, seven against and two abstentions, a result widely read as weakening his candidacy. The polls are non-binding, with further rounds expected through August and possibly into the autumn before a single candidate is recommended to the General Assembly, and the new secretary-general takes office on 1 January 2027.
Sources: Mining.com, RFI via allAfrica, AFP via Punch, EWN
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error
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