Why Brazil could dethrone Argentina in one of its main exports

By Mariano Espina

Argentina has been the leading exporter of soybean meal for more than twenty years.

The world supply of this product has historically depended on three players, of which Argentina has been the protagonist.

This year would change the story to benefit a neighbor: Brazil.

“The relative stagnation that soybean production has had in Argentina is combined this year with a brutal drought,” explains the Rosario Stock Exchange (BCR).

They are projecting a soybean crush production (grain processing) of 28 million tonnes, “the lowest volume since 2004″.

These phenomena are the ones that explain part of the US$8 billion that will not enter this year to the Central Bank’s coffers, according to BCR estimates, and also explains the recession projections.

BRAZIL, THE GREAT BENEFICIARY

The decline in soybean meal production in Argentina will have a winner: Brazil.

According to the US Department of Agriculture, the neighboring country forecasts a record soybean production of 153 million tonnes for the new season, 23.5 million tonnes above the previous year, adds the BCR.

Thus, Brazil would recover the position of “main world exporter of soybean meal” and would relegate Argentina from that position for the first time in 26 years.

SOYBEAN EXPORTS

According to the Rosario Stock Exchange, soybean meal and pellets exports are Argentina’s main exports, with over US$12 billion and 25 million tonnes in 2022 alone.

With information from Bloomberg

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