Weekly Economic Outlook: Key Indicators from South America
This week casts a spotlight on South America with scheduled releases of GDP figures for Chile, Mexico, and Peru for Q2 2024.
In Mexico, revised Q2 GDP figures indicate an economic deceleration. Adjustments reflect unemployment, robust consumer confidence, and wage increases.
In contrast, Chile’s GDP is expected to decline after a significant rise in Q1, suggesting a negative production gap.
Meanwhile, Peru likely exhibits strong growth in Q2, surpassing expectations by narrowing its negative production gap more quickly.
Key economic indicators and events for the week also include Argentina’s June economic activity index, which might signal the end of its recession in Q2.
However, Mexico’s internal activity and demand seem to be waning, despite favorable consumer sentiment bolstering retail sales.
Detailed Events by Country
Argentina
Economic analysts predict the release of the June 2024 economic activity index on Tuesday, August 20.
Expectations show a slight decline of 0.5% monthly and 2.5% annually. This level suggests economic stagnation from the previous quarter. But it may mark the end of Argentina’s technical recession.
Chile
GDP figures for Q2 2024 are due on Monday, August 19. Experts forecast a year-over-year growth of 1.6%, a decrease from 1.9% in Q1.
With lower interest rates and rising copper prices, the third-quarter growth is likely to slow, influenced by labor market weaknesses and reform uncertainties.
Mexico
Analysts anticipate a release of retail sales data for June 2024 on Tuesday, August 20, showing a 1.3% annual decline.
This minor decline suggests a slight monthly improvement from the previous 0.1% increase.
Moreover, on Thursday, August 22, Mexico will release its final GDP figures for Q2, likely adjusted down to a 2.1% annual growth from an initial 2.2%.
Peru
On Friday, August 23, Peru is expected to report a 3.5% increase in GDP for Q2 2024 compared to the same period last year.
This growth rate, representing a faster quarterly rise than before, may still be fragile, driven by lower interest rates and potential government spending increases.
As these countries navigate their respective economic conditions, the variations in growth rates and challenges highlight the intricate economic landscape across South America.
Understanding these dynamics is essential for stakeholders and policymakers dedicated to promoting economic resilience and progress in the region.
Live Market IntelligenceArgentina — Live Market Board
Rio Times · Live Market Intelligence
Argentina — Live Market Board
-1.15%
176,444.54
-0.62%
67,298.78
+0.88%
10,924.91
-0.77%
3,340,763
-1.15%
2,298.59
+0.07%
57,575.02
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| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MERVAL | 3,340,763 | -1.15% | +59.54% | 3,379,772 | 3,389,720 | 3,322,288 | — |
| USD/ARS | 1,489 | +0.40% | +18.56% | 1,483 | 1,492 | 1,475 | — |
| YPF | 82,700 | +0.24% | +101.83% | 82,500 | 84,400 | 82,525 | 224,666 |
| GGAL | 7,960 | -3.81% | +27.77% | 8,275 | 8,280 | 7,950 | 1,930,866 |
| PAMPA | 5,630 | +0.09% | +53.54% | 5,625 | 5,700 | 5,545 | 1,506,055 |
| TXAR | 676.00 | +1.20% | +8.86% | 668.00 | 684.50 | 661.00 | 1,155,644 |
| ALUAR | 983.00 | +0.92% | +42.40% | 974.00 | 986.00 | 971.50 | 340,388 |
| TGS | 10,010 | +1.06% | +48.96% | 9,905 | 10,130 | 9,905 | 318,386 |
| CEPU | 2,425 | +0.58% | +61.33% | 2,411 | 2,436 | 2,310 | 648,961 |
| MIRGOR | 16,675 | -1.48% | -25.14% | 16,925 | 16,975 | 16,600 | 2,175 |
| COME | 42.80 | -0.79% | -13.46% | 43.14 | 44.08 | 41.60 | 5,749,328 |
| LOMA NEGRA | 3,755 | -1.44% | +34.05% | 3,810 | 3,890 | 3,720 | 400,506 |
| BYMA | 293.25 | -0.76% | +51.88% | 295.50 | 295.50 | 290.00 | 1,370,554 |
| TELECOM ARG | 4,333 | -1.98% | +87.15% | 4,420 | 4,400 | 4,208 | 106,435 |
| GLOBANT | 30.45 | -0.72% | -65.53% | 30.67 | 30.50 | 29.27 | 1,142,491 |
| MERCADOLIBRE | 1,794 | -0.29% | -24.77% | 1,799 | 1,802 | 1,771 | 182,272 |
In depth
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