The Influence of Lula and Bolsonaro on Brazil’s 2024 Municipal Elections

Quaest’s July 2024 survey reveals the significant sway of President Lula and former President Bolsonaro in five major Brazilian capitals.

The study focused on São Paulo, Rio de Janeiro, Belo Horizonte, Campo Grande, and Manaus.

Researchers asked residents if they would vote for an unknown candidate endorsed by either leader.

This question aimed to gauge the extent of each politician’s influence on local elections.

São Paulo: A Slight Edge for Lula

In São Paulo, Brazil’s largest electoral district, Lula’s endorsements held a slight edge over Bolsonaro’s.

Approximately 29% of respondents would vote for a Lula-backed candidate, while only 20% would support Bolsonaro’s choice.

Meanwhile, Governor Tarcísio de Freitas maintained a 25% influence rate among voters. However, rejection rates for all three leaders increased since the previous survey in June.

Lula’s rejection rose from 53% to 66%, whereas Bolsonaro’s jumped from 63% to 75%. Additionally, Tarcísio’s rejection rate climbed from 50% to 68%.

Rio de Janeiro: Bolsonaro’s Stronghold

Rio de Janeiro, another crucial electoral battleground, showed stronger support for Bolsonaro’s influence.

In July, 27% of respondents would vote for a Bolsonaro-endorsed candidate, up from 22% in June.

Conversely, Lula’s influence increased from 19% to 23% during the same period.

Interestingly, rejection rates for both leaders decreased slightly, indicating a potential shift in voter sentiment.

Belo Horizonte: A Conservative Lean

Belo Horizonte presented a more balanced picture of political influence between Bolsonaro and Governor Romeu Zema.

About 31% of respondents would vote for a Bolsonaro-endorsed candidate, while 28% would support Zema’s choice.

In contrast, Lula’s influence appeared lower, with only 23% support and a high 72% rejection rate. These results suggest a stronger conservative lean in the capital of Minas Gerais.

Campo Grande: A Close Contest

Campo Grande showed a near tie between Lula and Bolsonaro’s influence on local voters. Bolsonaro held a slight edge with 34% support, while Lula followed closely with 30%.

However, rejection rates remained high for both leaders, with 65% for Lula and 60% for Bolsonaro.

These results indicate a deeply divided electorate in the capital of Mato Grosso do Sul.

Manaus: Shifting Political Tides

Manaus, the largest city in the Amazon region, witnessed a significant shift in political influence since the previous survey.

Bolsonaro’s support dropped from 50% in May to 34% in July, a substantial 16-point decrease.

Meanwhile, Lula’s influence stood at 25%, with Governor Wilson Lima trailing at 21%. These changes suggest a volatile political environment in the northern part of Brazil.

Implications for the 2024 Municipal Elections

These survey results hold significant implications for Brazil’s upcoming municipal elections on October 6, 2024.

The enduring influence of Lula and Bolsonaro underscores the polarized nature of Brazilian politics, even at the local level.

Their ability to sway voters could significantly impact the outcomes in key cities across the country.

The Influence of Lula and Bolsonaro on Brazil’s 2024 Municipal Elections

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