BNDES Study Forecasts Investment Growth in Brazil in Coming Years
RIO DE JANEIRO, BRAZIL – Investments in Brazil should improve during the 2019/2022 four-year period, according to the Prospects for Investment bulletin, produced by sector analysts from the National Bank for Economic and Social Development (BNDES) and released yesterday, September 13th, by the institution.
The publication expects total investment in the period of R$1.1 trillion (US$275 billion) for 19 mapped sectors, 11 of which are industry sectors and eight infrastructure sectors, which account for approximately 25 percent of the gross fixed capital formation of the economy. The amount shows a real increase of 2.7 percent in relation to the investments forecast in the previous survey (2018 to 2021).
According to the bulletin, the figures take into account all investments, whether or not supported by BNDES. “In the set of sectors analyzed, the bulletin shows an average real growth of 3.9 percent per year in the period, driven by an acceleration in growth at the end of the four-year period. The performance is much better than the current projections for the GDP [Gross Domestic Product] of the Focus bulletin [produced by the Central Bank]”, emphasizes the study.
Economist Fernando Puga, advisor to the presidency of BNDES, emphasizes that the prospect for 2022 is of a sharp growth in investment, particularly in sectors such as oil and gas and also in electric power.
Investments in industry justify the general expansion forecast of investments, emphasizing the oil and gas sector, not only as a result of the rebound in the price of oil in the international market but also by the concession or auctions of exploration blocks made in 2017 and 2018. In infrastructure, the BNDES expects that the logistics and sanitation sectors will see better performance from investments in the areas most in need of development, particularly as of 2020.
The study further anticipates that public policies, changes in the regulatory framework and programs for granting infrastructure services to the private sector have a positive influence on investments, while the states’ fiscal position remains a factor that hinders investments.
Source: Agência Brasil
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