São Paulo Mayoral Runoff: Low Rejection Rate Gives Nunes Edge Over Boulos

Ricardo Nunes and Guilherme Boulos enter the final stage of São Paulo’s mayoral race, facing off in a runoff election. Nunes (center-right), the current mayor, secured a narrow lead in the first round with less than 30,000 votes separating him from Boulos (left).

Nunes enters the runoff with several advantages. He enjoys lower rejection rates among voters compared to his opponent. Only 25% of São Paulo residents say they would not vote for him, while 38% reject Boulos.

This lower rejection rate gives Nunes more room to grow his support base. The incumbent mayor also benefits from the backing of both municipal and state government machinery.

Governor Tarcísio de Freitas, who actively campaigned for Nunes in the first round, is expected to continue his support. This scenario resembles the 2008 election when then-mayor Gilberto Kassab received support from the governor.

Nunes’ campaign strategy of highlighting his administration’s achievements and positioning himself as a centrist candidate has paid off. It allows him to appeal to voters from both the right and left of the political spectrum.

His team expects to naturally attract supporters of Pablo Marçal, a right-wing candidate eliminated in the first round. However, Nunes faces challenges in the runoff.

São Paulo Mayoral Runoff: Low Rejection Rate Gives Nunes Edge Over Boulos

Maintaining support in peripheral regions will be crucial for Nunes. President Lula is expected to campaign more actively for Boulos in these areas.

Other left-wing figures like Fernando Haddad and Luiza Erundina may also join the campaign trail to boost Boulos’ appeal among low-income voters.

Nunes must also address lingering controversies from the first round. These include allegations of domestic violence and investigations into corruption in childcare centers and public transportation. Boulos is likely to bring up these issues during the runoff campaign.

For his part, Boulos faces his own set of challenges. Despite efforts to present a more moderate image, he still carries the stigma of being a radical. Nunes has already started exploiting this perception in his post-first round speech.

Boulos must also convince voters of his administrative capabilities. With no executive experience, his political resume is limited to less than two years as a federal deputy. To counter this weakness, he chose former mayor Marta Suplicy as his running mate.

As the campaign enters its final stretch, both candidates will need to navigate these challenges carefully.

The outcome will depend on their ability to expand their support bases and effectively address the concerns of São Paulo’s diverse electorate.

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