Brazil Court Hands Rio to Bolsonaro’s Party in 5-2 Vote

BRAZIL · POLITICS

Brazil’s top electoral court voided Anthony Garotinho’s votes, handing Rio de Janeiro to Jair Bolsonaro’s Liberal Party without a runoff.

Rio de Janeiro will not hold a governor runoff on 25 October. On Thursday, 8 October, Brazil’s Superior Electoral Court (TSE) annulled all 274,411 votes cast for former governor Anthony Garotinho.

That lifts Douglas Ruas of Jair Bolsonaro’s conservative Liberal Party (PL) above 50% of valid votes, enough to win outright. Rio is home to Petrobras, the state-controlled oil company whose shares trade in New York.

The result hands a key state to the party of Trump ally Jair Bolsonaro. His son, Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, faces President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in the presidential runoff on Sunday, 25 October.

Eduardo Paes, the runner-up backed by Lula’s left-wing Workers’ Party (PT), conceded on Thursday night. He did so after a Supreme Court justice refused to suspend the ruling, g1 and Folha de S.Paulo reported.

How the Electoral Court Decided

The TSE, Brazil’s seven-member top election court, first refused unanimously to let Garotinho withdraw his appeal. Its rapporteur, Justice Floriano de Azevedo Marques, said a withdrawal after election day could interfere with the result.

The court then upheld the rejection of his candidacy, citing missing full political rights and valid party membership. Both stem from a conviction for intentional administrative misconduct, the TSE said.

The majority lifted a separate ban under the Clean Slate Law, which bars some convicted politicians, applying a 2025 law.

Floriano, André Mendonça, Estela Aranha, Dias Toffoli and court president Kassio Nunes Marques formed the 5-2 majority, g1 reported. Justices Ricardo Villas Bôas Cueva and Sebastião Reis Júnior wanted the first-round totals kept, which meant a runoff.

Why 274,411 Votes Decided Rio’s Governor Race

A first-round win requires more than half of valid votes. Garotinho stayed on the ballot because the regional ruling against him came after the voting machines were locked, Agência Brasil reported.

Counting his votes held Ruas at 49.27%, against 42.76% for Paes. Removing them from the base of 8,394,627 valid votes lifts Ruas to 50.88% and Paes to 44.16%.

No votes move between candidates: Ruas keeps 4,271,199 and Paes 3,706,984. Ruas clears the 50% line by 73,885 votes, according to TSE figures.

The decision settles the Rio de Janeiro governor race for 12.8 million registered voters, close to the entire population of Pennsylvania.

Paes Tried the Supreme Court, Then Conceded

Paes’s coalition asked the Supreme Federal Court (STF), Brazil’s constitutional court, to suspend the ruling and keep the runoff. Justice Cristiano Zanin refused on Thursday, saying no extraordinary appeal had yet been filed, Folha reported.

Zanin did not rule on the merits of the case, g1 noted. Paes then conceded on social media, saying the courts had decided against “the sovereign will of the voters”.

Speaking in central Rio, Ruas promised a “war on organised crime”, Agência Brasil and O Dia reported.

Who the Candidates Are

Ruas, 37, is a civil police officer and speaker of Rio’s state assembly. He was state secretary for cities under Governor Cláudio Castro, also of the PL, until March 2026.

The PL, chaired by Valdemar Costa Neto, is Brazil’s main conservative party. Paes, 56, a four-term mayor of Rio city who resigned to run, led the ticket of the centrist Social Democratic Party (PSD).

Garotinho, 66, a former Rio governor, ran for the conservative Republicanos party. Folha said his conviction involved an alleged diversion of BRL 234.4 million (about US$46.8 million) in state health funds.

The conversion uses the central bank’s PTAX rate of 5.01 reais per US dollar on 8 October.

What It Means for You

For holders of Petrobras shares and other Brazilian ADRs, the 25 October presidential runoff remains the bigger market event. A settled race removes one source of uncertainty in Brazil’s main oil-producing state.

Rio’s governor controls the state police, so Ruas’s promised crackdown will shape security for residents and visitors. Rio still votes for president on 25 October, and voting is compulsory for literate Brazilians aged 18 to 70.

What Prediction Markets Say

On Polymarket, bets give Flávio Bolsonaro an 86% chance of winning the presidency and Lula 13.5% (1:12 a.m. ET, 9 October). About US$178 million has been traded; Kalshi, regulated in the US by the CFTC, priced Flávio at 88% at 12:07 a.m. ET.

Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.

What Is Not Known

The TSE’s full written judgment had not been attached to the case when Zanin ruled on Thursday. Paes has said he respects the decision, but has not said whether his allies will file further appeals.

It is not known whether any party will lodge challenges after Saturday’s retotal. No date has been set for the formal proclamation.

What Comes Next

Rio’s regional electoral court (TRE-RJ) retotals the votes on Saturday, 10 October, at 3 p.m. local time, g1 reported. Three days of publication and two days for challenges follow before the court proclaims the winner.

The retotal is not a new vote or a physical recount, g1 noted. If confirmed, Ruas takes office on 6 January 2027.

Frequently Asked Questions

Why did Brazil’s electoral court annul Anthony Garotinho’s votes?

The court upheld the rejection of his candidacy over missing political rights and party membership, linked to a misconduct conviction. It annulled his 274,411 votes by five votes to two.

Did Douglas Ruas receive Garotinho’s votes?

No, they were removed from the total rather than transferred. Ruas keeps his 4,271,199 votes, but his share of valid votes rises from 49.27% to 50.88%.

Can Eduardo Paes still appeal?

A Supreme Court justice refused to suspend the ruling on 8 October because no extraordinary appeal had been filed yet. Paes then said he would respect the decision.

When will Ruas be declared governor?

Rio’s regional electoral court retotals the votes on 10 October, followed by short deadlines for challenges and a formal proclamation. The new term starts on 6 January 2027.

Does this affect the presidential runoff?

No. Only Rio’s governor runoff is cancelled, and Rio voters still take part in the presidential runoff on 25 October.

Sources: Superior Electoral Court (TSE): TSE decide pela retotalização dos votos para governador no Rio de Janeiro; TSE: session agenda, 8 October; TSE official results, Rio de Janeiro governor, first round; TRE-RJ; g1: TSE vote; g1: Zanin decision; g1: next steps; Folha de S.Paulo: Zanin; Folha de S.Paulo: Paes concedes; Agência Brasil; O Dia; Tribuna Online (all accessed 9 October 2026).