Research Suggests Brazil Could Have Eight Million Infected by Covid-19

RIO DE JANEIRO, BRAZIL – Between mid-March and early June, the contingent of Brazilians who contracted the novel coronavirus doubled from 1.9 percent of the population to 3.8 percent, according to data released on Thursday, July 2nd, in the third round of the EpiCovid-19 BR survey, conducted by the Federal University of Pelotas (UFPel).

The study applied diagnostic tests and interviewed 89,397 people from 133 municipalities across the country. There were approximately 200 people per municipality. The results show that the survey found a six-fold difference between the number of officially reported cases in these municipalities and the population with antibodies.

The cities chosen represent one-third of the population of Brazil. However, applying this proportion to the total population, currently 211 million, the data suggest that in one and a half months the number of people who contracted the disease increased from four to eight million.

The researchers do not yet confirm this statistic because they argue that, scientifically, the dynamics of another 5,000 municipalities, not included in the survey, must be assessed. However, other projections have shown the same direction and support the UFPel findings.

According to a mathematical model developed at the Federal University of Juiz de Fora (UFJF), in Minas Gerais, which was run when the cumulative number of cases stood at around one million, the pandemic numbers are, on average, nine times what was notified and now reach nine million, including asymptomatic cases.

Conducted by the IBOPE (Brazilian Institute of Public Opinion and Statistics), this is the country’s most comprehensive survey and, according to the researchers, the largest in the world. Rapid antibody tests were performed on volunteers, which detect whether someone has been exposed to the virus a week or more before.

The work was funded by the Ministry of Health. Officials from the portfolio attended a press conference yesterday, July 1st, when the figures were released. The interim Minister, who has been in office for 50 days, failed to attend any of the meetings.

“The tests were provided by the Ministry of Health and the likelihood of false positive is virtually zero. The test is for antibodies and is not related to the RT-PCR test which assesses the disease in its acute form,” explained the research coordinator, Pedro Hallal.

Other results

The research also found that in this one-and-a-half month period the number of people in quarantine decreased.

The number of people who say they remain home at all times dropped from 23.1 to 18.9 percent. The percentage of those who claim to go out daily increased from 20.2 to 26.2 percent.

Hallal pointed out that only nine percent of respondents who tested positive were asymptomatic. “It is important to refrain from stating that most cases are asymptomatic, this has not been confirmed.”

Source: Exame