Paraguayan Guarani Gains as Dollar Continues Rare Sharp Decline

According to the latest trading data from July 24, 2025, the Paraguayan Guarani strengthened notably against the US dollar.

Early trading showed the exchange rate around ₲7,422, down 0.76% compared to yesterday’s close at ₲7,479. This marks the continuation of a significant drop in the dollar since June 26, highlighted by a sharp and persistent downturn rarely seen in recent years.

The weakening US Dollar Index (DXY), currently at about 97.23, significantly influences this decline. The dollar faced substantial downward pressure from recent international trade agreements.

Increased trade between the US, the European Union, and Japan eased global economic tensions, reducing demand for safe-haven currencies. Central bank activities also played a role.

The Central Bank of Paraguay intervened by steadily selling USD and implementing forward market regulations. These actions have increased liquidity in the currency market and stabilized fluctuations, strengthening the Guarani.

Technical indicators clearly confirm the bearish trend for USD/PYG. The daily chart reveals that the price remains below key moving averages (50-day and 200-day), reinforcing the downward momentum.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI), currently at a low 13, suggests the market is oversold but not yet signaling a reversal.

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) confirms the bearish outlook, demonstrating persistent negative momentum without immediate signs of recovery.

Furthermore, Bollinger Bands expanded, reflecting increased volatility, with prices firmly testing the lower boundary. This suggests potential short-term stability but no reversal yet.

The Global Liquidity Index (NDQ), represented by the yellow line on the chart, declined sharply alongside the USD/PYG. This simultaneous drop indicates a reduction in overall dollar liquidity, aligning with broader market trends that push investors toward other assets.

Trading volumes indicate strong bearish sentiment, especially noticeable since yesterday. Volume analysis validates the Guarani’s current strength, as larger transactions favored the local currency, driven by importer demand for Guarani liquidity.

Looking ahead, market participants remain cautious, awaiting critical US economic data, particularly the upcoming payroll reports. These could prompt short-term adjustments in exchange rates.

For now, however, the Guarani’s momentum appears sustainable, supported by technical indicators and fundamental macroeconomic conditions.

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