Morocco Coalition Talks Lean Toward Four-Party Deal Without Ruling Party
MOROCCO · POLITICS
Key Facts
- —The country Morocco is a North African kingdom whose king names the head of government from the largest party.
- —What happened Moroccan outlets report that head of government-designate Fatima Ezzahra El Mansouri favours a coalition without the outgoing ruling party, the National Rally of Independents.
- —Who would govern Her Authenticity and Modernity Party would govern with Istiqlal, the Socialist Union and the Party of Progress and Socialism.
- —How big Together the four parties hold 207 of 395 seats, nine more than the 198 needed for a majority.
- —The catch Nothing is signed: the Party of Progress and Socialism is due to decide on Tuesday 6 October, and the Socialist Union has not committed.
- —Prediction markets Polymarket’s “Next Prime Minister of Morocco?” market gave El Mansouri 94.8% at 2:07 a.m. ET on 6 October 2026.
- —What comes next The king opens Parliament on Friday 9 October, and the 2027 budget bill is due by 20 October.
Morocco coalition talks are leaning toward a four-party government that would leave out the outgoing ruling party. Le360, a Moroccan news site, reported on Monday 5 October that head of government-designate Fatima Ezzahra El Mansouri now favours that plan.
Her Authenticity and Modernity Party (PAM) would govern with Istiqlal, the Socialist Union (USFP) and the Party of Progress and Socialism (PPS). No deal is signed, and a source in her party told Hespress, another Moroccan site, that no final line-up has emerged.
What the Moroccan Reports Say
Le360 cited well-informed sources for its report on the Morocco coalition talks. It said the Authenticity and Modernity Party (PAM) had ruled out renewing its alliance with the National Rally of Independents (RNI).
Lebrief, another Moroccan site, reported the same 207-seat formula on Monday evening. Both outlets said El Mansouri now favours the three parties of the Koutla, a historic alliance.
Several PAM sources told Hespress the same day that the alliance could unite Istiqlal, the PPS and the USFP, perhaps with one more party. Hespress named the Popular Movement or the Constitutional Union as possible additions.
The RNI’s role remains uncertain, Hespress added, because several parties, including the PPS, oppose it. Another source said the final line-up seems clear to El Mansouri but must first be approved and presented to King Mohammed VI.
Who the Parties Are
The PAM was founded in 2008, and El Mansouri was among its founders. It won the most seats on Wednesday 23 September and sat in the outgoing coalition.
The RNI led that coalition under Aziz Akhannouch, the outgoing head of government. Now chaired by Mohamed Chouki, it came second in the election.
Istiqlal, founded in 1943, is a conservative nationalist party that also sat in the outgoing cabinet. It is led by Nizar Baraka.
The Socialist Union of Popular Forces (USFP), led by Driss Lachgar, is a left-wing party. So is the Party of Progress and Socialism (PPS), led by Mohamed Nabil Benabdallah.
Both spent the past five years in opposition. Koutla means bloc in Arabic, and in 1992 Istiqlal, the USFP and the PPS were among the signers of a Koutla charter demanding reform.
How the Numbers Add Up
Interior Minister Abdelouafi Laftit announced the results early on Thursday 24 September, and his ministry confirmed them as final the next day. The PAM won 97 seats, the RNI 66 and Istiqlal 65.
The Justice and Development Party (PJD) took 54 seats, the Popular Movement 29 and the USFP 26. The PPS won 19 seats and the Constitutional Union 17.
Together the PAM, Istiqlal, the USFP and the PPS would hold 207 of the 395 seats. Article 88 of the constitution requires 198, an absolute majority of all deputies, La Quotidienne explains.
The outgoing RNI, PAM and Istiqlal coalition held 270 seats, Médias24 noted. The Morocco coalition talks now point to a narrower majority.
Turnout was about 38%, roughly 6 million of 15.8 million registered voters. Background on the vote is in Morocco’s Authenticity and Modernity Party Leads Election as Turnout Falls.
A Split Over the Outgoing Ruling Party
The PAM’s national council met in Skhirat on Saturday 3 October and voted unanimously to let El Mansouri keep negotiating. She said the debate had not been easy, with some members demanding red lines on certain allies.
One PAM leader, Hicham El Mhajri, told that meeting the RNI was “a red line”, Barlamane reported. The hall took up the phrase in chorus, the site added.
The RNI says it is ready to serve. Its national council declared that readiness the same Saturday and mandated its president, Mohamed Chouki, to manage the party’s participation.
Istiqlal’s council, meeting in Salé the same day, voted unanimously to take part. There, leader Nizar Baraka passed on word that the PAM had excluded the RNI, drawing loud applause, then apologised, Hespress reported.
What It Means for US Readers
Morocco is a long-standing US partner, with a free trade agreement in force since 1 January 2006. Under the 2011 constitution, the king commands the armed forces and signs and ratifies treaties.
That means the Morocco coalition talks bear more on the economy than on foreign policy. For the foreign side, see Morocco Geopolitics Explained 2026.
The 2027 budget bill must reach Parliament by 20 October, Hespress noted, which puts the Morocco coalition talks under time pressure. The PAM campaigned on purchasing power and income tax, and the new team will try to write those priorities into the bill.
Public services keep running in the meantime. Under Article 47, the outgoing government handles current affairs until a new one is formed, La Quotidienne notes.
What Prediction Markets Say
Polymarket is an online prediction market where traders buy and sell contracts on future events. Its prices show what those traders are willing to pay, not an official forecast, a poll or a probability The Rio Times endorses.
Polymarket’s “Next Prime Minister of Morocco?” market priced El Mansouri at 94.8% at 2:07 a.m. ET on Tuesday 6 October 2026. Under its rules, the market counts only a head of government whose cabinet wins a confidence vote in the House of Representatives.
What Is Not Known
The PPS central committee meets on Tuesday 6 October to decide whether to join. The USFP has met El Mansouri at least twice but has not announced its position.
It is not known whether a fifth party will be added. Talks on the programme, the cabinet line-up and the share-out of ministries are still ahead, Le360 said.
The RNI’s fate should become clearer on Tuesday or Wednesday, Le Site info reported. Until then, the Morocco coalition talks remain a set of reported preferences, not a deal.
What Comes Next
King Mohammed VI opens the new parliamentary session on Friday 9 October, the second Friday of the month. That date does not oblige El Mansouri to have a government ready, La Quotidienne notes.
Once the Morocco coalition talks produce a deal, she proposes ministers to the king, who appoints them. The government then needs at least 198 votes in the House of Representatives.
In 2021 the whole process took five weeks, from the 8 September vote to a confidence vote on 13 October. In 2016 and 2017, talks stalled for more than five months.
More: Morocco news in English, every day from The Rio Times.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is Fatima Ezzahra El Mansouri?
She coordinates the collective leadership of the Authenticity and Modernity Party and chairs Marrakech’s city council. King Mohammed VI appointed her head of government on Tuesday 29 September 2026, the first woman in the post. She was housing minister in the outgoing cabinet.
What is the Koutla in Moroccan politics?
Koutla means bloc in Arabic. It refers to Istiqlal, the USFP and the PPS. In 1992 they were among the signers of a charter asking King Hassan II for reform. Together the three hold 110 seats in the new House of Representatives.
Why are the Morocco coalition talks leaving out the RNI?
Several PAM leaders oppose renewing the alliance with the National Rally of Independents, which led the outgoing government. The PPS also opposes it, Hespress reported. The RNI says it is ready to join, and no official decision on its role has been announced.
Is Morocco’s head of government the same as a prime minister?
In practice, yes. The 2011 constitution uses the title head of government, while markets and foreign media often say prime minister. The king keeps command of the armed forces and signs treaties.
When will Morocco have a new government?
The Morocco coalition talks have no fixed end date, because the constitution sets no deadline. In 2021 it took five weeks from election day to the confidence vote.
Sources: Le360 (French), Gouvernement El Mansouri: le PAM écarte le RNI et se tourne vers la Koutla, 5 October 2026; Le360 (French), Gouvernement El Mansouri: dernières actus (live updates), 3-5 October 2026; Hespress Français, Formation du gouvernement: Mansouri consulte Benabdallah et ouvre les discussions avec Lachgar, 5 October 2026; Hespress Français, Gouvernement: El Mansouri lance le 2e round de consultations, 5 October 2026; Hespress Français, Majorité gouvernementale: les consultations entrent dans une phase décisive, 5 October 2026; MAP, SM le Roi nomme Fatima Ezzahra El Mansouri Cheffe du gouvernement (Royal Household communiqué), 29 September 2026; MAP, Biographie de Mme Fatima Ezzahra El Mansouri, 29 September 2026; Hespress Français, Législatives 2026: le PAM en tête avec 97 sièges (Interior Ministry provisional results), 24 September 2026; MAP, Législatives 2026: les résultats définitifs correspondent parfaitement aux résultats généraux provisoires (Interior Ministry communiqué), 25 September 2026; Lebrief, Gouvernement El Mansouri: le PAM ouvre la voie à une alliance avec la Koutla, 5 October 2026; Médias24, Formation du gouvernement: la piste d’une reconstitution de la Koutla autour du PAM se dessine, 2 October 2026; Barlamane (French), Au Maroc, la direction du PAM écarte publiquement le RNI de la future coalition gouvernementale, 3 October 2026; H24info, Maroc: le RNI accepte de participer au gouvernement El Mansouri, 3 October 2026; Le Site info, Fatima Ezzahra El Mansouri poursuit ses consultations avec le PPS et l’USFP, 5 October 2026; La Quotidienne, Nomination, coalition, vote de confiance: les étapes de l’après-scrutin, 23 September 2026; Hespress Français, PLF 2027: quelle marge pour traduire les promesses du PAM?, 5 October 2026; Le360, Il était une fois, Mhammed Boucetta, le sage de l’Istiqlal (1992 Koutla charter), 24 July 2020; Aujourd’hui le Maroc, L’Istiqlal, le parti politique de la troisième voie, 22 August 2007; Constitution of Morocco 2011, Title III (Articles 47, 53, 55), French text, 29 July 2011; Office of the US Trade Representative, Morocco Free Trade Agreement, accessed 6 October 2026; Polymarket, Next Prime Minister of Morocco? (market rules), 6 October 2026, 2:07 a.m. ET.
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